Twelve months ago, it would’ve seemed crazy to consider the United States women’s national team one of the favorites for Olympic gold at Paris 2024. When it faces Germany in Tuesday’s semi-final, it will mark exactly a year since its shocking Women’s World Cup last-16 exit and, shortly afterwards, head coach Vlatko Andonovski’s departure, which unsurprisingly followed the U.S.’s worst-ever performance at the tournament.

Yet, the USWNT is guaranteed to play in a medal match at this year’s Games, having won all three in the group stage before overcoming a tricky Japan side in extra-time in the quarter-finals. Indeed, when it takes to the field at the Stade de Lyon on Tuesday, it might actually be the favorite to stand on top of the podium later this week.

That would be ahead of 2016 gold medallist Germany, ahead of a Brazil team inspired by Marta’s impending retirement and, most notably, ahead of a Spain side that came into the Olympics as the overwhelming front-runner, after being crowned the world champion last summer in Sydney. But that perceived gap to La Roja has been closed over the course of the last two weeks – most significantly by the U.S. itself.

Summer to forget

Given last year’s World Cup, it is remarkable that the USWNT looks this good at the closing stages of the Olympics. The width of the post was all that separated the U.S. and a group-stage exit, even, as the woodwork denied Portugal a late goal in the third round of matches that would’ve seen it progress at the U.S.’s expense.

Instead, it was in the next game, in the last 16, that the four-time world champion crashed out, fine margins going against it this time in a penalty shootout defeat to Sweden. The attack never clicked under Andonovski, despite it being made up by names such as Sophia Smith, Trinity Rodman and Alex Morgan, and that played a huge role in a dreadful tournament.

Not ideal preparation

But it’s more to do with what has happened in the 12 months since that makes this charge for Olympic gold all the more unlikely. When Andonovski left his role in the aftermath of that Sweden loss, Twila Kilgore was appointed in the interim, and it wasn’t until early November, some three months later, that U.S. Soccer announced Emma Hayes as the next permanent head coach of the USWNT.

There was a catch, though, as Hayes would not take charge until the end of May, when Chelsea’s 2023-24 season was over. It was just nine weeks before the Olympics began that the 47-year-old boarded a flight to New York to officially swap one side of the Atlantic for the other.

She has had so little time to fully prepare her new team for this tournament that, in June, she described it as like being “a heart surgeon in the middle of emergency surgery”. “Not because anything is wrong, but the reality is it's really, really hard for me to be on the wards or on the clinics and teaching everyone and do surgery at the same time, in such a limited amount of time,” she explained.

Making improvements

In a way, though, that has relieved some of the pressure that usually surrounds the USWNT ahead of any tournament. Of course, there is still some weight of expectation, but it’s certainly not as big as usual, given the circumstances the team came into the Olympics in.

Perhaps that has played a part in things clicking in attack, despite concerns over whether that would happen still being prevalent in the final pre-Olympic friendlies. No team has scored more goals at the Games than the U.S. and it has the highest shot conversion rate of the four nations that remain in contention for gold. It has been composed in defence, too, with no team conceding fewer goals.

That’s not to say Hayes has come in and made the U.S. perfect in a matter of weeks. At times, there are still questions regarding creativity, the team has looked vulnerable in transition and the midfield is not always on song. However, it’ll take a very good team to beat the four-time gold medallist, and all of those remaining have their own flaws as well.

No team is perfect

The questions around Germany’s credentials were evident in the 4-1 loss it suffered to the U.S. in the group stages. While that result does not mean Hayes’ side should breeze through this semi-final on Tuesday, it was at least an indicator of how the two match-up and how it can favor the USWNT.

On the other side of the draw, Brazil has not been to a major international final since 2008, when the U.S. beat it in the Olympic gold medal match. It certainly goes into its match against Spain as the underdog, not least because Marta is set to miss out through suspension.

And then there is Spain, the world champion, a team that backed that success up in February with a triumphant UEFA Women’s Nations League campaign and one which came into this Olympics as the favorite, given it has asserted itself as the best international team on the planet in the last 12 months. That said, things have not gone perfectly for La Roja in France, either.

Upset narrowly avoided

That was emphasized on Saturday when Colombia was on the brink of knocking Spain out in the quarter-finals. The scoreboard read 2-0 to the South American side with 78 minutes played, and still 2-1 in the sixth minute of the 10 added on at the end of the second half. Irene Paredes’ dramatically late equaliser certainly made amends for two questionable bits of defending in the build-up to Colombia’s goals and, on penalties, Spain would prevail.

Though it survived the scare, it wasn’t without giving encouragement to the teams that remain in this competition. That’s because it looked weak on the counter and particularly out wide, where it was exposed by some quick and positive play by Colombia’s Mayra Ramirez and Linda Caicedo.

There are doubts about head coach Montserrat Tome, too, with her decision to substitute two-time Ballon d’Or winner Alexia Putellas with more than 20 minutes to play on Saturday, while Spain was still 2-0 down, the latest call worth questioning. Those concerns have lingered for a while even though results have continued to be positive since she took over from Jorge Vilda, as the world-class quality in La Roja’s squad – which includes another Ballon d’Or winner in Aitana Bonmati – so often sees a match-winner step up, even if the team performance has not been outstanding.

Summer to remember?

Putellas, Bonmati and so many more means Spain remains the pick for many to win gold. Most will certainly expect it to reach the Olympic final, as it is the favorite for that semi-final clash with an inexperienced and Marta-less Brazil, even if the Selecao has impressed and is capable of causing an upset.

Yet, if Spain does fulfil that expectation, Germany or the U.S., whichever it would meet in the gold medal match, would fancy its chances of exploiting those weaknesses, too. Whether it is Jule Brand and Klara Buhl of the former charging into those spaces behind the full-backs, or Rodman and Mallory Swanson of the latter, neither match-up would be wholly comfortable for Spain.

The world champion was a class above the rest when it lifted that World Cup in Sydney little over 12 months ago, but no team in history has ever followed that honor up by winning Olympic gold the following summer. While it is still well in contention to become the first to do so, those remaining will fancy their chances of stopping it – not least a USWNT that has already completed an incredibly impressive turnaround after its contrasting disaster Down Under.