The Seattle Seahawks run the ball on first down. They’ve been doing it all season, and they continued to do it last Sunday against Kansas City. By my count, the Seahawks ran the ball on 20 of 29 first down plays, and that’s me counting the bubble screen that went backwards on the first play as a pass. Even if it’s into a brick wall, Brian Fleury is still sending it.

First Down Futility

We’ve discussed this problem previously, and things are no better. The Seahawks rank 30th in Rush EPA on first down, and 21st in success rate. The fumbles drag things down quite a bit, but it’s still a below-average rushing offense even if you remove those. You’d think the offense would be moving away from running it on first downs, but if anything, they’re leaning into it.

It seems to be a core staple of Brian Fleury’s offensive philosophy at this point. He believes that, with this team, it’s the right thing to do. And I don’t see that changing this season. If the poor results so far this season didn’t convince him to switch it up, I suspect it’s here to stay. Running on first down leads to second and long, which leads to third and long, which leads to bad.

The Potential Remedy

To be clear, I believe that Fleury’s insistence on running on first downs is objectively bad, and is a big part of the problem this offense has had so far this season. However, running on early downs isn’t intrinsically bad. It’s bad because, for this team, it hasn’t been working. And the Seahawks are getting some players back soon that might be able to change that.

Imagine if those first down runs start going to Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet instead of Emanuel Wilson and George Holani. No disrespect to the latter two players, but Price in particular gives this offense a lot in his outside zone abilities that could change everything. And, of course, add in Quenton Nelson run blocking for those plays.

The Caveat

Suddenly, those 2 and 3 yard runs become 8 and 9 yard runs. Maybe the occasional bigger gash for 10 to 12 yards now covers 25 to 30. Running the ball on first down isn’t such a big issue if you’re setting up second and short, or chewing up significant chunks of the field. However, as is so frequently the case, things can get more complicated.

So far this season, especially in recent games, opposing defenses have not respected Seattle’s running game. Despite their tendencies, we’ve seen a lot of light boxes, with opponents trusting their players to be able to make the play regardless, and mostly being proven right. With Price, Charbonnet, and Nelson in tow, we might see a return to the loaded boxes of 2025.

If that happens, Fleury must be ready with counters. Running into heavy fronts to balance out the offense is fine, Kubiak did it plenty last year, but at some point you have to attack it. Max protect, take your shots downfield into single coverage, and bring back the big plays. Defenses will have to pick their poison, but the offense has to actually present them with the poisons.