Although the Toronto Raptors are currently 2-1 on the season, their recent loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves revealed a glaring issue with their offense stemming from their star forward, Scottie Barnes.

In his first real test without Kawhi Leonard on the floor, Barnes was held in check, finishing the night with 0 points while shooting 0-of-12 from the field. But it wasn’t just the fact that he went scoreless, but it was how it happened and how that further revealed a much bigger issue that could make or break the Raptors’ offense this season.

With a traditional box score stat line of 17 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists with three stocks per game, most wouldn’t classify Barnes’ start to the season as “rough.” But one glaring stat peels the curtain back on an early trend in Barnes’ game that actually reveals that he isn’t even playing up to his full potential.

Barnes Is Getting Away From What Makes Him Great

At 6-foot-8, nearly 240 pounds, Barnes combination of size, speed and athleticism has made him one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the league around the rim. Last season, 53.8 per cent of shot attempts came within ten feet, in which he shot 60.1 per cent. Not only was it his highest scoring type but it was also where he converted the most consistently.

In comparison, pull up jumpers was his second highest scoring type at a frequency of 24 per cent where he shot only 42.4 per cent. Safe to say that Barnes understood his strengths and leaned into what works best for him.

Now let’s look at this season. So far through three games, Barnes’ shot selection has drastically changed. This season, shots within ten feet only make up 29.8 per cent of his shot selection and he is only converting on 41.2 per cent of those shots.

So he’s getting to the paint area 22 per cent less and his conversion rate has also dropped by nearly 20 per cent. In comparison, his frequency of pull up jumpers has drastically increased, bumping up to 40.4 per cent of his shot attempts while only shooting 34.8 per cent on those shots. 

In short, he’s taking way more pull up jumper this season compared to last but hasn’t improved enough as a shooter to make the most of those attempts. It’s not bad to let Barnes explore his offensive game a bit more, but too much could actually do more harm than good.

Raptors Fans Should Not Be Worried Just Yet

One thing that should be made clear is that although this trend is a bit worrisome, it doesn’t mean that Barnes is declining as a player. In the same game where he was held scoreless, he still managed to be effective on the defensive end, finishing the game with four steals and a block. Barnes can be an effective player overall even with a limited offensive bag. 

Maybe this all simply stems from Barnes being around one of the greatest mid range shooters in NBA history in Kawhi Leonard and because of that he’s feeling a bit inspired. Regardless of the reason, the reality is that the thing Barnes does best is getting to the rim. The Raptors are only three games into the season, but it would be in coach Darko Rajakovic’s best interest to remind Barnes of this before it’s too late and the early season bad habit becomes a season-long trend.

Nonetheless, Rajakovic is seemingly unphased by Barnes’ most recent performance.

“I don’t think they did anything, to be honest with you, that they got him off the game,” Rajakovic told reporters after the game. “He just missed shots.”

Whether shot selection is truly an issue or not can only be determined with a larger sample size of games. But for now the Raptors aren’t worried about Barnes and neither should Raptors fans. But this is something worth monitoring, cause it could play a major role in figuring out just how good Toronto’s offense can be come playoff time.