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Chicago Bears and New England Patriots: Who Wins and Why for Week 7

How the teams match up by position group at Soldier Field Thursday night with a prediction on the winner as the Bears and Caleb Williams host the Patriots.

Montez Sweat gets a hit on Drake Maye in the 2024 Patriots win over the Bears at Soldier Field. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Bears coach Ben Johnson this week could not mince words about the Patriots. There was no need with a Super Bowl team coming to Soldier Field on Thursday night.

"They tackle really well," Johnson said. "They shed blocks really well. And then schematically, they try to take away what you do best. And that's the challenge.”

New England's defense is solid without a glaring weakness and their defensive line is particularly tough to move inside. The offense can do everything required, although injuries on the offensive line can lighten the impact of their running game or their pass blocking.

Either way, this could be the best overall team the Bears have played. Green Bay and Minnesota lacked running games and used different means to beat the Bears.

The Patriot could go about any direction with their offense and defense and be confident matching up.

It's the 4-2 Bears and 4-2 Patriots on the lakefront for Thursday Night Football. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Patriots run defense

The top-ranked Bears rushing game got a great break when guard Jonah Jackson got pulled from the injury report. They'll need all the blocking from their best inside to move Milton Williams, Cory Durden and Christian Barmore out on the inside. Dre'Mont Jones, Gabe Jacas and Christian Elliss lead a fast-reacting linebacker group. The Patriots are a solid ninth against the run and 12th in yards per attempt. Without Kyle Monangai, D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson must take care of the football this week and run through tackles. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Patriots pass defense

Caleb Williams' return proved he can throw from the pocket and in time but also go deeper if need be. Best of all, it proved he's healthy. New England's pass defense looks solid on paper at 11th overall but they've sprung a leak over the last three games, allowing 249, 268 and 227 yards passing after they had averaged 170 yards passing allowed in the first three. New England's pass rush has three fewer sacks (14) than the Bears but they tend to keep running QBs contained. Doing that to Williams is a little more difficult than your run of the mill QB. Edge to Bears

Patriots running vs. Bears run defense

Drake Maye's ability to scramble or just carry for yards complements TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson and helps New England keep the chains moving. The Pats rank sixth in rushing, but things are different this week with two guards out injured and another offensive lineman iffy. This only helps the Bears draw closer to even in this matchup because their run defense looks good on paper in some categories, but not others. For instance, they rank higher than New England's run defense in eighth, but they give up 4.5 yards a carry, which is 24th. What happens is teams have to give up on the run while the Bears are possessing the ball and eating up clock. It's not so much a case of shutting down the run. No Edge

Patriots passing vs. Bears pass defense

Kyler Gordon made all the difference in the world last week as his pass rush and coverage took Atlanta out of its game. New England won't be caught by surprise with this, but the Rams knew what Gordon could do in the playoffs last year and he still made his presence felt. New England's Maye averages 8.0 yards per attempt and that says he could do what the Packers did to the Bears. They went deep and took advantage of inexperienced Malik Muhammad, Dillon Thieneman and even torched Jaylon Johnson. The Bears need to have interior heat on Maye and force him out of the pocket while limiting his runs to 5 yards or less. The lack of Montez Sweat or Dayo Odeyingbo could weigh much more heavily in this one with their rush and run defense. Edge to Patriots

Special teams

Zavion Thomas is averaging a tenth of a yard less than Patriots kick returners while Kalif Raymond's 12.3 yards per punt return is a couple yards better than New England's approach. The Patriots' punt coverage team allows 10.3 yards per return while the Bears are near the top, ranking sixth at 7.8 yards per return. Tory Taylor's banana punts have a lot to do with it, and he's maintaining a healthy 49.3-yard average. He's also caused a few misfields with his banana ball punts.
The Patriots are much better covering kickoffs than punts at 24.4 per return, good for eighth. The Bears, however, have knocked it out of the park on kick coverage lately and are now No. 3 in the league at 22.3 yards per return. Cairo Santos missed another plus-50 on Sunday but his counterpart is inexperienced Andres Borregales, who is at 83.3% for his career. Santos has made 84.8% for a long career. Edge to Bears

Coaching

It's two coaches who were considered for the Bears job. They probably would have been fine with either one, although Ben Johnson seems a little more focused on what's important these days than Mike Vrabel. Dennis Allen's scheming against Josh McDaniels' Patriots offense is an interesting matchup, just like Johnson against Vrabel's sound defense. The two have faced each other five times in different circumstances. Allen's Saints shut out McDaniels' Raiders in 2022 24-0, and beat McDaniels as OC with the Patriots 28-13 in 2021. However, McDaniels got the better of Allen's defenses in three previous matchups, including 45-10 in 2011 postseason when Allen was just starting as a defensive coordinator for the Broncos. In 2014, Allen was Raiders defensive coordinator and lost to McDaniels and the Patriots but it was a defensive war, 16-9. No Edge

Intangibles

It's Thursday Night Football with perfect football conditions on the lakefront and Chicago will be electric. Two 4-2 teams, but the Iceman is back and it's the first time back at Soldier Field since the late Mike Ditka passed away. Home teams win 55% of the time on Thursday nights, several percentage points better than regular NFL games. New England probably has more impressive wins than the Bears, beating Buffalo, the Raiders badly and Pittsburgh. They lost to Jacksonville in a rout and to the Seahawks in the opener. The Bears' best win was over the Eagles, 27-7, but Williams didn't play. No Edge

Picking the winner

Draft Kings Line: Bears by 3 (over/under 50 1/2)

Gene Chamberlain's pick: Bears 26, Patriots 24

Gene Chamberlain's record vs spread: 2-4 (Overall 2-4, 3-3 over/under)

Key to Bears win: Getting in Maye's face with interior rush, either the tackles, stunting or Devin Bush. And Bush needs to play a big role using his speed to stop Maye from scrambling. Maye had problems in the first three games with the rush in his face.

Bears and Patriots betting trends

  • The Bears are 4-2 against the spread this season, 2-1 at home
  • The Patriots are 3-2-1 ATS and 1-1-1 on the road
  • The Patriots have won six of the last seven in the series and four straight in Chicago
  • It's been under with one push in nine of the last 15 Bears games
  • The road team won and covered in the last three games between the teams
  • It's been over the total in each of the last three games for the Patriots, all games they won
  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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