Teams rarely perform at the same level for an entire season. Even when they continue to win or lose, the performances might improve or wane a bit. It's yet another thing that can make handicapping games every week a bit more difficult.

The sample size we have to work with is always small, and it's constantly changing. As the season moves along, we can also see how the market has reacted to what's gone on, and perhaps which teams it's overreacted to.

One fun way to do this is to see how teams performed over the first month of the season compared to the last. Here's a look at the 10 teams who saw their average cover margin (how much they were beating the spread, or losing to it, by) take the biggest dip from the end of September through this week.

It shouldn't be a shock to see Mississippi State here. The Bulldogs got off to a hot start to the season thanks to Kamario Taylor, and the market reacted. But then so did their opponents, and when you throw in an injury to Taylor, things have spiraled quickly. Florida is another team that got off to a hot start and then quickly cooled, and who could forget the UMass Minutemen opening the season with an upset of Rutgers?

What might be the most interesting, though, is seeing Georgia on the list. They've kept winning for the most part, but their overall performances have not matched expectations. Whether it's something to be concerned about, or just a midseason lull, remains to be seen, but it's certainly worth noting.

Something else worth noting? Two if the 10 teams on that list play this weekend, and that's the game we're starting The Six Pack with.

Games of the Week

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida: So which one of these two October underperformers do we trust the most right now? In truth, I trust Georgia more, so of course I'm taking Florida's side in this one. When my gut zigs, my brain zags! In all seriousness, it's tough to trust Florida given its defense, and while Georgia isn't perfect, its flaws aren't nearly as great as Florida's.

So why the Gators? It's simple. 

Their offensive coordinator has a strong history against this Georgia defense, and I'm betting on his ability to continue that success at Florida, where he has a more talented offense than he had at Georgia Tech. 

Buster Faulkner faced Georgia three times as Tech's OC, and while the point totals in those games varied wildly, there was one thing about each performance that was very consistent.

His offenses stayed on the field. In those three games, they went three-and-out twice. That's a great way to protect your defense, and it's Florida's best chance to do so in this one. 

I don't know what the secret is, but Faulkner knows how to move the ball effectively against the Georgia defense, and this isn't your typical elite Georgia defense. Don't get me wrong, it's still very good and one of the best in the nation, but it's shown that if you can get into scoring position, it'll allow points. The 5.0 points it allows per red-zone possession rank 130th nationally. The Pick: Florida +12.5 (-112) at DraftKings

No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech: I didn't show you the teams on the other end of that month-to-month performance, but if I had, you'd have seen that no team improved against the number more than Arizona. The Wildcats improved by 25.67 points per game against the spread, and they come into this game having flown under the radar. There's been plenty of talk about the Big 12 getting multiple playoff bids, but all of it has centered on BYU, Utah, Texas Tech, and until last week, Houston. Nobody ever mentions Arizona, but the Cats are 6-1 and have this game against Tech as well as a game against Utah. They control their destiny in the Big 12.

Unfortunately for Arizona, Texas Tech losing last time was probably the worst thing that could've happened. You'd prefer to face a team coming off a win who might be overlooking you, but that went out the window with their loss to Cincinnati. Now they know they cannot afford another slip-up, and Arizona will have their full attention.

But I'm not looking to pick against the spread here. The total seems far more gettable. I like Arizona, but I can't ignore how different their offense has looked in their six wins compared to their lone loss. 

It came to BYU on the road. Arizona scored 17 points in the game, or 1.7 points per possession. They've averaged 3.13 in their wins. BYU was far and away the best defense they've seen this season, and while Tech isn't the same defensively as last season (the pass rush has fallen off), it's still a good defense. One that should be successful here, particularly at home.

I also believe the Arizona defense can hold up against a one-dimensional Texas Tech offense. No matter who wins or loses, I don't see either offense having a great day. The Pick: Under 54.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Lock of the Week

Mississippi State at No. 11 Texas: Eventually the Mississippi State team total will drop low enough that I will no longer consider it an auto-play, but that hasn't happened yet. 

There's nothing overly complicated about this play. Kamario Taylor was the Mississippi State offense. When things were going well for this team early in the season, it was Taylor putting the team on his back and making it happen.

That bad offensive line? No worries, Kamario will overcome it. Without him, nothing has worked. In the first four games of the season, the Bulldogs offense averaged 3.66 points per possession. Since the Alabama game, when Taylor was dealing with the toe injury that has now cost him the season, the number has plummeted to 1.12. 

They put up 15 points against Oklahoma last week, but that was only because of a late touchdown that came after the game was over. Plus, that game was at home. This one is on the road against another great defense, and one that probably feels like it has a point to prove after it needed overtime to escape a near upset against this same Bulldogs team last season. The Pick: Mississippi State Team Total u14.5 (-125) at DraftKings

Fallen ACC Powers Battle of the Week

Clemson at Florida State: It wasn't that long ago that a game between Clemson and Florida State was one of the biggest of any given season. 

In 2026, it's getting an evening start on the ACC Network. The wildest part for me is that, for as bad as Florida State has been these last couple of years, and for all the negativity surrounding the program, I feel far more faith in the Seminoles than I do the Tigers!

Clemson's offense is one of the worst in the country. They have scored only 12 touchdowns on offense this season, and that includes two (2) passing touchdowns. That's the fewest in the country. 

Seriously, Army, Air Force, and Navy have more. 

Say what you will about Florida State, but at least they can put points on the board. The Noles are also coming off a bye here, and Mike Norvell fully understands the position he's in. We've seen Norvell unload the clip in big spots like this before, and I can't help but believe he feels the chance to put up a number on Clemson would go a long way toward getting him another season in Tallahassee. 

Or, at least, put him on the radar for a team looking for a new offensive coordinator. Like, say perhaps there's a team that just fired its offensive coordinator earlier this week whose head coach has worked with Norvell at Memphis before. I don't know, just throwing stuff out there! The Pick: Florida State -6 (-108) at DraftKings

This Was Supposed To Be A Big Game of the Week

No. 2 Ohio State at USC: The ripple effect of the Julian Sayin injury may end up being felt all over the country. Ohio State went from a clear favorite to win the national title to a team that we can't even be sure will make the playoff at this point. 

Then there's Jeremiah Smith's Heisman case. He's the current favorite for the award, but will he be able to hold onto that lead down the stretch if Ohio State's new QBs struggle to get him the ball?

I don't know. Hell, we don't even know for sure who Ohio State's starter will be here. We have to assume Luke Fahey is the favorite, since he replaced Sayin, but Ryan Day has said both Fahey and Tavien St. Clair could see time. Regardless, it's not hard to figure out how Ohio State's likely to approach this game. They're going to want to make life as easy as possible on a first-time starting QB, and that means they'll try to run the ball. USC's defense will likely be helpful in that aspect, because the Trojans haven't been great at stopping the run.

The bigger problem for the Trojans, though, might be the offense. Nobody ever expects Lincoln Riley's teams to play great defense, but this offense couldn't do a damn thing against Wisconsin. 

It also struggled mightily in a win against Washington, as well as in the loss to Oregon. When it's faced a good defense, it has had trouble putting points on the board. Ohio State does not have a great pass rush, but it's still a very good defense. The Pick: Under 52.5 (-115) at Fanduel

Upset of the Week

No. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa: To continue a theme, Iowa is a team that probably wasn't as good as it looked to start the season. Yes, the Hawkeyes started the year 4-0 with a win over Michigan, but it was a somewhat fluky win in Ann Arbor. Plus, it's not like Michigan has been impressive this season. The Wolverines are 4-3 and are a second away from being 3-4. The other wins came against a Northern Illinois team that's still winless, Northern Iowa, and an Iowa State team that's been getting blown out in Big 12 play pretty regularly.

Now the Hawkeyes are still 5-2 after losing two of three, but they're playing musical chairs at QB, and their leading rusher Kamari Moulton is out for the season after getting hurt last week. Oh, and the defense hasn't really been the same Iowa defense you're used to seeing. 

They're still a pain in the ass, but they don't have the same turnover magic. Now here comes Wisconsin, which just smothered USC with a pillow last week. The Badgers don't have an overly impressive resume outside of that win, but this defense is outstanding. Basically, Wisconsin looks like the team we expect Iowa to be, while Iowa looks a little less than the typical Iowa. In my mind, that makes the Badgers a live dog here. The Pick: Wisconsin (+142) at DraftKings