Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes now hinge on a Nov. 7 trip to LSU, according to ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum, who warned Monday that a third loss in Baton Rouge would knock the Crimson Tide out of the field.

Finebaum made his case on ESPN’s “First Take” two days after No. 13 Alabama lost 26-10 at Tennessee, the program’s first back-to-back regular-season defeats since 2007. “Right now, they’re looking at the abyss,” Finebaum said.

Alabama’s road test at LSU

“They have to go to LSU,” Finebaum said. “Now, LSU has been all over the place this year, but Alabama does not seem to play that well on the road. I know they beat Mississippi State, but Kamario Taylor was out of that game. ... If they drop that game, they’re done. They’re not getting in the playoff.”

Taylor started for the Bulldogs on Oct. 3 in Starkville, but the sophomore quarterback was hobbled by an ankle injury and left early in the fourth quarter of Alabama’s 56-23 win. The Tide’s other road win came in Lexington, where they trailed Kentucky 17-13 at halftime before a 32-0 second half produced a 45-17 final.

Lane Kiffin’s first LSU team is 5-2 and climbed to No. 18 in the AP Top 25 after a 31-0 shutout of Mississippi State. Finebaum circled this game back in August, when he predicted Kiffin would get revenge on November 7 and hand Alabama its third loss.

Why are fans blaming Ryan Grubb?

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer backed offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb this week, saying, “I think he’s a great play-caller,” but Finebaum said the fan base has turned on the second-year coordinator.

“And the fans right now are not so much after DeBoer, they’re after Ryan Grubb, the offensive coordinator who called a miserable game Saturday,” Finebaum said. “They just got punked against Tennessee, a team that had struggled at times this year.”

Alabama’s offense averaged 49.6 points per game through five weeks. In Knoxville, it managed 10 points and 201 total yards with four turnovers, while Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop ran for 159 yards against the Tide.

Grubb didn’t dispute the criticism. “It’s embarrassing,” Grubb said. “If I was a fan or a supporter, I’d be pissed off too.”

Ryan Grubb’s Seahawks history

Could Alabama miss the College Football Playoff? 😱@finebaum believes they are in “trouble.” pic.twitter.com/6qS6ZgLN23

— First Take (@FirstTake) October 19, 2026

“Remember Grubb? He was at Washington under Kalen DeBoer,” Finebaum said. “He came to Alabama, and then he decided to leave after two weeks to go with the Seattle Seahawks. They fired him, and guess what happened the next year? They won the championship running the football, which he refused to do.”

Grubb was announced as Alabama’s offensive coordinator in January 2024 and left for Seattle on Feb. 13 of that year. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald fired him after one season, citing a lack of alignment on the offense that centered on the run game. Seattle then hired Klint Kubiak and beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX in February.

Finebaum also tied the Tennessee result to Alabama’s 20-17 home loss to Georgia on Oct. 10. “DeBoer threw away all the goodwill he got a week ago in that loss to Georgia, but Alabama is really in trouble at the moment,” he said.

Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC) hosts Texas A&M on Saturday and has an open date before the Nov. 7 trip to Baton Rouge.