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HOUSTON – A week ago, the Toyota Championship Projection leaned toward Morgan State as a 63.4 percent favorite to win the MEAC, and Jackson State was the favorite in the SWAC East. Our HBCU Legends’ BC+ model favored South Carolina State and Alabama A&M as the top two teams to meet in the 2026 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota.
Wednesday’s update from the Cricket Celebration Bowl’s Toyota projection replaces Morgan State with South Carolina State in the MEAC, and Alabama A&M rises above Jackson State in the SWAC.
Howard defeated Morgan State 26-20 in overtime with a walk-off pick-six. In comparison, Bethune-Cookman beat Jackson State 24-21 in Daytona Beach to send the SWAC East into chaos.
In the MEAC, South Carolina State’s strong first-half performance handed the Bulldogs a 22-7 win over Norfolk State. Those results moved the Toyota prediction more than any other week this season.
“A week ago, Morgan State and Jackson State held very different positions,” John T. Grant, executive director of the Celebration Bowl, said. “Then Howard goes into Baltimore and upsets Morgan State in overtime, Bethune-Cookman defeats Jackson State in a thriller, South Carolina State wins, and suddenly the road to Atlanta looks different.”
We generated 100,000 BC+ simulations with the Week 8 results. Here is where the two models agree, where they split, and which Week 9 games could reshape the championship races.
BC+ had the right leaders last week; however, it missed projections on four of six conference games that reshaped the conference races.
Five of the six were projected within four points. Those are close matchups, and four of them went against the model.
The results also show why championship projections can shift dramatically from one week to the next, especially when conference standings, head-to-head tiebreakers, and remaining schedules factor into the simulations.
Week 9 MEAC Championship Projections
Percentages represent each team’s probability of winning the MEAC championship. The gap measures BC+ minus Toyota, in percentage points.
The models agree on South Carolina State first and Howard second. Howard’s championship probability is virtually identical in both.
Morgan State represents the biggest disagreement between the two projections. Toyota gives the Bears a 25.40 percent chance to win the conference. BC+ gives them just 4.3 percent, a difference of more than 21 percentage points.
The MEAC has no championship game. Its champion emerges from a five-game conference round robin, making head-to-head results particularly important.
Morgan State is 0-1 after losing to Howard, which now owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bears have lost two straight. They face South Carolina State on Thursday, then travel to Delaware State, host Norfolk State, and finish at N.C. Central.
BC+ does not favor the Bears’ remaining schedule. Even when we restored Morgan State to its Week 6 rating, before the losses to Tennessee State and Howard, BC+ kept the Bears’ championship probability below 8 percent.
Thursday’s matchup could change the equation.
A Morgan State victory over South Carolina State lifts the Bears to 11.2 percent in BC+. It turns the championship race into a near tie between South Carolina State (32.3 percent) and Howard (31.7 percent).
A South Carolina State victory increases the Bulldogs’ championship probability to 57.6 percent.
N.C. Central is another significant disagreement between the models.
BC+ moved the Eagles higher after a 19-point road victory at Delaware State, although N.C. Central entered that game 2-5 after four consecutive losses.
Saturday’s game against Howard in Durham will test the Eagles again.
Week 9 SWAC East Division Championship Projections
Percentages represent each team’s probability of winning the SWAC East. The gap measures BC+ minus Toyota, in percentage points.
The two models largely agree on the SWAC East, with championship probability differences of 3.2 percentage points or less among eligible teams.
Alabama A&M remains the favorite, while Bethune-Cookman has emerged as its closest challenger.
Both teams are 3-1 in conference play, but Alabama A&M owns a decisive head-to-head victory after beating the Wildcats 55-17 on Oct. 10.
Jackson State sits at 3-2 in the SWAC and needs help to regain control of its championship path.
Saturday’s Magic City Classic in Birmingham represents the biggest potential swing game in the SWAC East.
BC+ favors Alabama A&M by 6.6 points over Alabama State.
The models also differ in how they treat Mississippi Valley State.
Toyota assigns the Delta Devils a 0.19 percent championship probability. BC+ counts Mississippi Valley State’s regular-season results but excludes the program from postseason advancement based on the reported NCAA Academic Progress Rate postseason restriction.
Week 9 SWAC West Division Championship Projections
Percentages represent each team’s probability of winning the SWAC West. The gap measures BC+ minus Toyota, in percentage points.
Prairie View A&M leads the West standings at 3-2 and owns head-to-head victories over Grambling State and Alcorn State.
BC+ has the Panthers first. Toyota has Grambling State first for the second consecutive week.
The biggest difference involves Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
BC+ rates the Golden Lions as the division's strongest team, even though Toyota ranks them behind Grambling State, Prairie View A&M, and Alcorn State in championship probability.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff defeated Florida A&M 31-28 last week. The Golden Lions host Bethune-Cookman on Saturday, travel to Grambling State on Nov. 7, and host Prairie View A&M on Nov. 14.
Those remaining matchups could determine the Western Division champion.
Several Week 9 scenarios illustrate how quickly the projections could change:
Unlike the SWAC East, where Alabama A&M has established a clear advantage, the West remains a competitive race involving Prairie View A&M, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling State, and Alcorn State.
Week 9 SWAC Championship Projections: Toyota vs. BC+
Percentages represent each team’s probability of winning the SWAC championship and advancing to the Celebration Bowl. The gap measures BC+ minus Toyota, in percentage points.
Both models place Alabama A&M close to a 50 percent probability of winning the SWAC championship and reaching Atlanta.
Bethune-Cookman ranks second in both projections.
The greatest differences emerge among the Western Division contenders, particularly Grambling State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Toyota gives Grambling State a 9.57 percent chance of winning the conference, compared with 5.2 percent in BC+.
BC+ gives Arkansas-Pine Bluff a 9.0 percent chance, compared with just 2.95 percent in Toyota.
Toyota’s projections stop at determining which teams reach the Celebration Bowl.
HBCU Legends’ BC+ model goes a step further by simulating the championship matchup at a neutral site in each of its 100,000 simulations.
South Carolina State wins the 2026 Celebration Bowl most frequently, claiming the championship in 29.1 percent of simulated seasons.
The Bulldogs are the defending champions after defeating Prairie View A&M 40-38 in four overtimes last December.
BC+ 2026 Celebration Bowl Championship Projections
Reach Atlanta represents the probability of qualifying for the Celebration Bowl. Win Bowl represents the probability of winning the championship across all simulations. Win If There represents the conditional probability of winning once a team reaches Atlanta.
Alabama A&M is a close second, winning the Celebration Bowl in 26.6 percent of simulated seasons.
The difference between South Carolina State and Alabama A&M comes primarily from their respective paths to Atlanta, not a significant difference in their team ratings.
BC+ rates the two programs within a fraction of a point.
A hypothetical South Carolina State-Alabama A&M championship game is nearly even, with the Alabama A&M Bulldogs favored by 0.2 points and carrying a 50.5 percent win probability.
That matchup is also the most common championship pairing, occurring in 22.3 percent of BC+ simulations.
Alabama A&M against Howard is the second-most common matchup at 13.0 percent.
Overall, the MEAC champion wins the Celebration Bowl in 52.7 percent of BC+ simulations, with South Carolina State accounting for most of that advantage.
The eight Week 9 matchups include several games that could directly affect the conference championship races.
Three of the eight games are projected within one point, including Howard at North Carolina Central, Bethune-Cookman at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Alcorn State at Mississippi Valley State.
Those matchups could produce additional movement in next week’s projections.
The Toyota Championship Projection now includes FCS-only scoring efficiency, team strength, conference standings, remaining schedules, game locations, and tiebreak rules.
Toyota runs 10,000 simulations.
At that simulation volume, a team with a championship probability near 40 or 50 percent carries an estimated simulation margin of approximately plus or minus 1 percentage point. Teams separated by only a couple of percentage points should therefore be considered closely matched in the projections.
BC+ uses scoring margin adjusted for opponent strength, incorporating 2025 results while weighting the current season three times as heavily.
Its ratings are expressed as points per game below a top-five FCS team.
For the Week 9 update, HBCU Legends ran 100,000 simulations using a 2.5-point home-field advantage and no home-field advantage for neutral-site classics.
BC+ uses head-to-head results to break ties, followed by division record. That approach is simpler than the complete SWAC and MEAC tiebreaking procedures and may produce some differences in championship probabilities.
Neither model determines the actual conference champions. John Grant summarized that distinction in the Celebration Bowl release: “The teams decide who reaches Atlanta.”
Who leads the Toyota Championship Projection in Week 9?
South Carolina State leads the MEAC at 40.63 percent. Alabama A&M leads the overall SWAC championship race at 49.10 percent.
What does BC+ project for the Celebration Bowl?
BC+ gives South Carolina State a 48.5 percent probability of winning the MEAC and Alabama A&M a 45.9 percent probability of winning the SWAC.
Does a championship game decide the MEAC?
No. The MEAC champion is determined through a five-game conference round robin.
Who does BC+ project to win the 2026 Celebration Bowl?
South Carolina State leads with a 29.1 percent championship probability across 100,000 simulations. Alabama A&M ranks second at 26.6 percent.
When is the 2026 Celebration Bowl?
The Cricket Celebration Bowl is scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 12, at noon ET on ABC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
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