Just a few months ago, Vinícius Júnior was celebrating a massive six-year extension, pledging his loyalty to Real Madrid “forever.”

Fast forward to mid-October and the No. 7 is hard-pressed to find anything worth celebrating. Vinícius Jr has had a dreadful start to the season, finding the back of the net just once in 10 appearances across all competitions.

Perhaps even more concerning is his overall state of play for both club and country. Vinícius Jr is one-dimensional down the left flank, stuck on autopilot to try and dribble around three defenders only to lose possession. There’s little playmaking coming from his right foot, and even worse finishing. He’s also shown less interest in tracking back than ever before, which is saying something.

To make matters even more dire, Vinícius Jr saw red in the team’s 1–0 win over Villarreal and earned a four-game suspension for pulling the hair of Nathan Saliba and then squaring up with the referee.

Now, the Brazil international cannot return to La Liga action until after the November international break, leaving the door open for blockbuster summer signing Yan Diomande to make the left wing his new home.

No One Is Irreplaceable at Real Madrid

The concept of Vinícius Jr losing his place in Real Madrid’s lineup would have been laughable just two years ago. The Brazilian was the best winger in the world in a 2023–24 campaign that ended with the Champions League crown, La Liga title and Spanish Super Cup for Los Blancos.

He finished second in the Ballon d’Or voting and was the face of the biggest club in the world. But little has gone right for Vinícius Jr in the ensuing years. The 26-year-old struggled to gel with Kylian Mbappé, clashed with Xabi Alonso and now looks closer to being benched than scoring a goal.

Vinícius Jr admitted during the September-October international break he needed “some confidence” amid his poor run of form, only to get sent off in his first match back for Real Madrid. He then was hooked after just 59 minutes against Roma midweek, forced to watch from the sidelines as his team completed a vintage Champions League comeback.

As Vinícius Jr well knows, results are bigger than any one player at Real Madrid. He had a front row seat when the club pushed legends like Sergio Ramos and Luka Modrić out the door. He arrived one season after Cristiano Ronaldo received the same treatment. He also watched as Los Blancos shopped around Rodrygo two summers ago after the once-trusted forward had a poor spell.

Trophies are the endgame. Trophies are the standard. It’s why the Bernabéu crowd has booed the team over and over again throughout the last two seasons. Vinícius Jr has received the brunt of the whistles during that stretch, a brutal reminder that past triumphs mean nothing at Real Madrid; it’s only about what title comes next, and if the biggest players are helping the team get there.

The pressure only gets worse when there is a young player eager to prove himself more capable than an underperforming veteran. The worst part for Vinícius Jr? He cannot even compete with Diomande now that he’s suspended.

Diomande Handed Rare Opportunity

There’s a graveyard of left wingers who have tried and failed to displace Vinícius Jr at Real Madrid. Rodrygo had to learn to play on the right. Mbappé transitioned to a center forward. Eden Hazard had a notoriously horrible time trying to own the position. Diomande started this season on the bench, consistently overlooked despite his eye-watering price tag.

But now that Vinícius Jr is suspended for four games, Diomande gets the chance to stake his claim. The teenager already has a goal and two assists in his last three starts, and now has the full freedom of the left flank to show why Los Blancos signed him in a deal worth up to a club-record €140 million ($157.3 million).

Should Diomande impress, he has a real chance of keeping the starting job even beyond the team’s upcoming four La Liga games against Sevilla, Barcelona, Racing Santander and Valencia. Mourinho has been treading on eggshells with Vinícius Jr so far, but the Portuguese boss needs results more than he needs his superstar winger happy.

If Real Madrid go on a winning streak and somehow beat Barcelona without Vinícius Jr, then it would be nearly impossible to simply reinsert the struggling Brazilian into the lineup. The goals aren’t there. The assists aren’t there. The defensive work isn’t there. He would be logging minutes simply based on his past contributions, all while a player of Diomande’s quality potentially rots on the bench.

The best case scenario for Vinícius Jr would be for the young forward to struggle, making it so there is no controversy about the No. 7 taking back the left wing upon his return. But my, how far Vinícius Jr has fallen if he simply wins his starting job back by default.

The One Thing Working in Vinícius Jr’s Favor

Even if Real Madrid go on a great run in the build-up to the November international break, it doesn’t automatically mean Vinícius Jr will remain out of the action once domestic play returns. After all, the team enjoyed its best stretch of performances last season while Mbappé was out, and the Frenchman still waltzed back into the XI when he recovered from injury.

Los Blancos went from winning five games in a row, beating Manchester City twice and Atlético Madrid along the way, to a four-game winless streak once Mbappé regained his starting position in the spring of 2025–26.

Despite the evidence to the contrary, the club was hellbent to make Mbappé work in the team. Vinícius Jr will hope he gets the same treatment when he returns from his suspension.

But it remains to be seen whether the club learned from its mistakes last season. Forcing Mbappé back into a team firing on all cylinders resulted in zero trophies. Doing the same with Vinícius Jr could reap the same outcome, one that Mourinho and club president Florentino Pérez are desperate to avoid.

This article was originally published on www.si.com as Are the Next Four La Liga Games Make or Break for Vinicius Junior at Real Madrid?.