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Will there be a free agency splash before MLB lockout? And three other burning offseason questions

Typically, the end of the World Series leads almost immediately to offseason projections about which team needs what and what free agent will sign where. And there’s always — or just about — the knowledge that in a certain amount of days, pitchers and catchers will report to spring training.

But for the second time in five years, there is an unknown about when spring — and the regular season — will arrive in 2027, as a lockout that’s set to begin when the current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1.

The main point of contention — as it was in 1994 when the players struck and the World Series was cancelled — is the owners’ desire to implement a salary cap and the union’s insistence of avoiding it, even with a salary floor.

Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred answers questions before game one of the World Series in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026.
Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred answers questions before game one of the World Series in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026.

The last time there was a lockout, there was no shortage of activity before the shutdown and plenty more when the two sides came to an agreement in March.

How do things look this time around?

How long will the lockout last?

There are some people in the industry that believe there’s still a chance for 162 games to be played next season. There are others that insist the possibility exists of the entire season being lost.

What’s clear so far is the proposals being made by both sides so far have been met with incredulity from the other.

That’s not a surprise, since this battle has been brewing for years and the lockout — which is meant to spur negotiations — is still over a month away.

During the last shutdown, though, talks between the two didn’t really gain any traction until February and the deal struck in March resulted in the start of spring training being pushed back and shortened, but no regular season games were missed despite the delay of Opening Day.

Will there be a flurry of moves or will teams wait until the dust settles?

That will be the most interesting part of the next few weeks, as front offices and ownership groups decide whether to spend on free agency or whether the possibility of a salary cap on the other side of the work stoppage will scare them off, given the unknown landscape in the future.

Back in the early winter of 2021, when the MLBPA and the owners already didn’t agree on the salary structure of the time — but not to the extent that’s true now — a handful of teams still spent freely.

In November of that year, for example, Max Scherzer, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Javier Baez all signed nine-figure deals.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal reacts during game one of the NLCS against the Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal reacts during game one of the NLCS against the Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026.

This year’s free agent crop — even before the threat of a lockout — is not as strong as that one, with Tarik Skubal the top player available. The lefty, who is represented by Scott Boras, will have to decide if he should take the best offer available prior to the lockout or wait until it’s over and risk the arrival of a cap.

There figures to be a mechanism in place to give teams time to get under the cap due to contracts that are already on the books.

Former Yankee Michael King and ex-Met Freddy Peralta are two other high-profile pitchers about to hit the open market, with Randy Arozarena perhaps the best position player available.

Teruaki Sato, a third baseman with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan, will be posted even with the lockout coming.

Free agents are eligible to sign with new teams five days after the World Series ends and how it unfolds is anyone’s guess.

What’s on the schedule before the shutdown?

The General Manager meetings will begin Nov. 9 in Las Vegas. Normally, this is the unofficial start of the offseason and a prelude to more work getting done in December at the Winter Meetings.

But since there is almost no chance of the Winter Meetings happening — as all transactions involving 40-man players are prohibited during a work stoppage — there could be more urgency to get things done in Vegas.

Freddy Peralta of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in St. Petersburg, Fla., Monday, Oct. 26, 2026.
Freddy Peralta of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in St. Petersburg, Fla., Monday, Oct. 26, 2026.

What else is on the table for the new CBA?

The stoppage comes down to the owners’ side saying competitive balance needs to be addressed, with the union countering with the belief the cap would primarily lead to an increase in franchise value, but there are other matters that will be discussed.

Among them: Roster size, a free agency window, length of regular season schedule as well as adjustments to the postseason schedule.

So far, there’s been little to no common ground.

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