The Denver Broncos (5-2) have a Bo Nix problem. The franchise has what it needs at head coach (Sean Payton), defensive coordinator (Vance Joseph), defense (a perennially top 10 scoring defense with nearly half its players either Pro Bowlers or All Pros) and at kicker (Wil Lutz).

Yet, the Broncos' Super Bowl contention window could slam shut in the next year or two because of their quarterback. Nix, the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, will be eligible to sign a multi-year extension beginning in the 2027 offseason. But general manager George Paton ought to think very carefully before fully committing to him as the team's face-of-the-franchise passer. 

This season, Denver has the 24th-ranked scoring offense (20.6 points per game), 30th-ranked total offense (270.0 total yards per game) and ranks 26th in yards per play (4.7). The Broncos' 270.0 total yards per game and 4.7 yards per play metrics are both the fewest in the first seven games of a season in Sean Payton's NFL head-coaching career. How could they be so inefficient offensively after upgrading their receiving corps with a trade for Jaylen Waddle this offseason? Look no further than Nix. 

How bad has Nix truly been?

Nix had his best game of the season (222 yards passing and a touchdown on 15-of-19 passing, with 74 yards rushing and a touchdown on seven carries) in the Broncos' 30-16 road win at the hapless Arizona Cardinals (2-5) in Week 7. Nix registered the longest rushing touchdown by a quarterback in Broncos history on Sunday from 62 yards out, with the Cardinals' defense parting like the Red Sea on Nix's scramble. He went up the middle of the field unencumbered. 

However, that didn't change the fact that Nix hasn't been challenging defenses downfield as a passer all season. He is averaging an NFL-worst 5.7 air yards per pass attempt, the shortest average pass length by any quarterback through the first seven games of a season since Drew Brees in 2020. That was the Hall of Famer's final NFL season before his right shoulder fully gave out. You read that correctly: The 26-year-old Nix is just as scary as a downfield passer as a 41-year-old quarterback in his 20th NFL season with a degenerative condition in his throwing shoulder.  

That's a pretty spooky statistic for the Broncos, but even scarier ahead of Halloween this weekend is Nix's clear regression in essentially every key efficiency metric. Here are the statistics that currently sit at a career-worst for Nix in his third NFL season:

• Team points per game
• Completion percentage
• Passing yards per game
• Air yards per pass attempt
• Passer rating
• Expected points (-0.08) 

Perhaps even more alarming is that Nix feels he is still playing at a steady, capable level of football in 2026. 

"Playing good, playing bad ... it's a narrative," Nix told reporters prior to Week 6. "I think it's honestly something we make up. I don't necessarily think I'm playing any different than I normally play, it's just every once in a while, a ball will bounce this way or something will happen this way ... next thing you know, the stat line is different.

* Career low

But what about all the comebacks? 

One of the things Nix's biggest supporters love to cite is the Broncos' ability to make up second-half deficits. Nix had eight game-winning drives in 2025, tied for the most in a season all-time (including the playoffs), and he has the most comeback wins (22) by a QB in his first three seasons since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. However, if you listen to any great football coach like Bill Belichick or Nick Saban, they'll often say it's the process, not necessarily the results throughout the season, that makes championship teams. 

In the vast majority of those comebacks, it was Nix's pedestrian play, not his defense's, that put the Broncos in those holes to begin with. In 2025, when Nix had eight game-winning drives, his defense was busy racking up a franchise-record 68 sacks, a figure that led the NFL by a wide margin. The next closest team, the Atlanta Falcons, had 11 fewer sacks (57) last season. 

This season, Denver averages 7.1 points in the first half, and Nix has just one touchdown to two interceptions in seven first halves in 2026. However, they're able to come back in the second halves despite Nix becoming an even more conservative passer (fewer air yards per pass attempt) and more inaccurate (lower completion percentage). That's once again thanks to a defense that co-leads the league with 21 sacks through seven weeks while ranking tied for seventh in the NFL in takeaways with 10. 

In second halves this season, the Broncos' average starting field position is their own 36-yard line, which ranks fourth-best in the league. That has been created in large part because eight of Denver's 10 takeaways have come in the second halves of games, which ranks as tied for the fourth-most takeaways in the league in second halves this season. 

Essentially, much of Nix's comebacks and game-winning drives are fueled by his environment and not necessarily his own play. He is the trailer attached to the high-powered truck that is Denver's dominant defense. Even if the Broncos defeat their hated AFC West rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs (5-1), Sunday afternoon, they need to be forward-thinking about Nix's future. 

Nix's market value and how it would hurt Denver to keep him

Given his unwillingness or inability to challenge defenses downfield and the overall decline in his play, it's worth wondering whether Denver could win at the same rate or better with a different quarterback. 

That's especially true when looking into what Nix's market value could be on a second NFL contract. Spotrac calculated that the 26-year-old's market value in the ever-rising quarterback contract market could be a $52 million average per year salary on a three-year, $156.03 million extension. Paying a quarterback whose play style is that of a limited game manager at the age of 26 would cripple the Broncos' Super Bowl contention hopes. 

Every team's roster naturally takes a slight dip in overall quality when they have to pay market value for their starting quarterback, but for Denver, that could be catastrophic. The Broncos can withstand Nix's middling play thanks to their defense, led by 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Pat Surtain II and a loaded defensive line. 

If their defense took even a small step back from top 10 overall to around league average, the high volume of comeback wins with Nix could evaporate into the Rocky Mountain air. The good news for the Broncos regime of Sean Payton and George Paton is that there is still time to find a replacement for Nix as long as they don't extend him. Whether that is through the 2027 NFL Draft, free agency or the trade market, the Broncos have options. 

If they choose to tie their futures to Nix's development, Denver could look like the Miami Dolphins after extending Tua Tagovailoa to a four-year, $212.4 million extension. Having a physically limited, topped-out quarterback caused the Dolphins' offense to regress, and their playoff participation ceased after a slight dip in roster quality. Today, Miami is a franchise paying more for players not on its roster (an NFL-record $179 million in dead cap hits) than for the players on its roster ($156 million). 

Payton and Paton would be wise to begin plotting their quarterback succession plan post-Nix now to avoid the Broncos' ownership group considering a rebuild under a new regime a few years down the road.