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This is a big, big season for Michigan State basketball.
The Spartans enter the season ranked sixth in the nation and have the tools to be elite this year. Predictions, especially on a season-wide scale, are so difficult because so much can happen between now and when the NCAA Tournament arrives.
Let's give it a shot, though. Here are my preliminary score predictions for every game MSU will play this season, with potential mapped paths in the Big Ten Tournament and March Madness included.
Nov. 2 (H): MSU 85, Quinnipiac 59 (1-0)
Nov. 5 (H): MSU 83, Toledo 70 (2-0)
Nov. 10 (N-Chicago): Duke 79, MSU 67 (2-1)
Nov. 13 (H): MSU 90, Northern Iowa 68 (3-1)
Nov. 17 (A): Tennessee 71, MSU 70 (3-2)
Nov. 21 (H): MSU 96, Detroit Mercy 61 (4-2)
Nov. 26 (N-Detroit): MSU 74, Arkansas 68 (5-2)
Dec. 2 (H): MSU 78, Minnesota 64 (6-2, 1-0)
Dec. 5 (H): MSU 81, Drake 71 (7-2, 1-0)
Dec. 9 (A): Maryland 65, MSU 63 (7-3, 1-1)
Dec. 12 (H): MSU 88, Merrimack 53 (8-3, 1-1)
Dec. 19 (N-Palm Springs): MSU 71, Gonzaga 67 (9-3, 1-1)
Dec. 22 (H): MSU 82, Oakland 71 (10-3, 1-1)
Dec. 29 (H): MSU 93, Penn 70 (11-3, 1-1)
Jan. 2 (A): MSU 69, Nebraska 63 (12-3, 2-1)
Jan. 5 (H): MSU 84, Washington 65 (13-3, 3-1)
Jan. 9 (A): UCLA 76, MSU 65 (13-4, 3-2)
Jan. 12 (A): MSU 81, USC 77 (14-4, 4-2)
Jan. 16 (H): MSU 93, Oregon 72 (15-4, 5-2)
Jan. 23 (A): Ohio State 81, MSU 80 (15-5, 5-3)
Jan. 26 (H): MSU 85, Penn State 76 (16-5, 6-3)
Jan. 30 (H): MSU 73, Purdue 68 (17-5, 7-3)
Feb. 2 (H): MSU 78, Maryland 74 (18-5, 8-3)
Feb. 5 (A): Illinois 85, MSU 71 (18-6, 8-4)
Feb. 10 (H): MSU 81, Rutgers 70 (19-6, 9-4)
Feb. 13 (A): Michigan 72, MSU 70 (19-7, 9-5)
Feb. 16 (A): MSU 68, Iowa 62 (20-7, 10-5)
Feb. 20 (H): MSU 73, Nebraska 69 (21-7, 11-5)
Feb. 23 (A): MSU 71, Indiana 65 (22-7, 12-5)
Feb. 26 (H): MSU 81, Michigan 70 (23-7, 13-5)
March 2 (A): MSU 76, Northwestern 59 (24-7, 14-5)
March 6 (H): MSU 80, Wisconsin 70 (25-7, 15-5)
March 12 (N-Indianapolis): (2) MSU 74, (7) USC 65 (26-7)
March 13 (N-Indianapolis): (2) MSU 81, (3) Purdue 74 (27-7)
March 14 (N-Indianapolis): (1) Illinois 77, (2) MSU 68 (27-8)
March 18 (N-Louisville): (3) MSU 87, (14) Liberty 65 (28-8)
March 20 (N-Louisville): (3) MSU 74, (6) Villanova 70 (29-8)
March 26 (N-New York): (3) MSU 75, (7) Vanderbilt 69 (30-8)
March 28 (N-New York): (1) Duke 79, (3) MSU 71 (30-9)
The big, shiny object at the end of the tunnel is the Final Four at Ford Field in Detroit that Michigan State is technically hosting. It makes one think the stars must be aligning for a big run for the Spartans, who have been knocking on the door of another Final Four appearance in the last few years. The fact that they made it to the championship game in 2009, the last time the event was held in the Motor City, only makes the noise louder.
"That's all I hear about every day: it's 'The Final Four's in Detroit,'" Tom Izzo said Thursday. "People think I'm living in a vacuum...It's like Haley's Comet. It doesn't come around very often."
Obstacles stand in the way of MSU getting to the biggest stage college basketball can offer, though. Firstly, the Spartans didn't get a super-friendly draw with their Big Ten schedule. Most of their biggest conference games are on the road this year. The average preseason KenPom ranking of the team's conference home games is 51.9. That average is 36.4 for the team's road conference opponents.
Just the draw of the schedule may cost Michigan State a game or two this season. That could make the difference between being 1, 2, or 3 seed.
There are also three inevitabilities in life: death, taxes, and MSU being placed in Duke's region. It happened last season, and it's happened in five of the last seven tournaments where both teams have made it. The Spartans will probably be really good this year, but it feels like Duke is going to be really, really good. That leads me to having Michigan State's season painfully end at the hands of the Blue Devils, one game shy of that Detroit Final Four.