In recent weeks, Oklahoma has looked like a team that wins with defense and survives with everything else. The Sooners have scored 14 points or fewer in four of their six games, and that tells you where Mississippi State can attack this weekend at Davis Wade Stadium.

Oklahoma opened as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5, which says the market expects a grinder. Here are three bold predictions for the Bulldogs against the Sooners.

Mississippi State holds John Mateer and Oklahoma under 17 points

Outside of a 51-0 win over UTEP and a 27-24 upset of Texas, Oklahoma’s offense has been stuck in the mud. The Sooners scored 10 at Michigan, 14 against New Mexico, 13 at Georgia, and 13 against Kentucky, and their offensive line is pretty much banged up. 

The Sooners also stopped handing the ball to their running backs late against Kentucky, a sign the staff does not trust the ground game to close out games.

The Bulldogs’ defense has taken its lumps in the last two weeks, but this is a different kind of opponent. Oklahoma does not have the firepower to win a shootout, and Mississippi State keeps the Sooners under 17 points in a game that feels closer to a street fight than a track meet.

Mississippi State wins the turnover battle by two

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer threw three second-half interceptions against Kentucky, including a 41-yard pick-six by the Wildcats safety Jordan Castell that sealed a 21-13 loss. Brent Venables did not dodge what it cost his team.

“We lost the turnover margin. Obviously that’s kind of the name of the game,” Venables said in his postgame press conference. He also tried to put the result in perspective. “The margins are really small.”

A quarterback who forces throws into tight windows is what this Mississippi State secondary has been waiting to see. The Bulldogs get at least two takeaways, and Mateer’s decision-making becomes the story of the afternoon.

Jeff Lebby beats his alma mater for the first time

Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby has faced Oklahoma before, but never as a head coach, and he gets to do it at home with his program sitting at 4-2. Oklahoma has also lost both of its true road games this season, at Michigan and Georgia, by a combined 35 points. The quarterback question hangs over everything, and Lebby kept it open at his Monday press conference.

“He didn’t wake up yesterday morning and was healed,” Lebby said of the Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor. “It’s going to be day-to-day. He’s got a lot of work to do, but we’ll see where we end up.”

Even without full clarity on Taylor, Mississippi State has the better offensive coach on the field and a home crowd that will be desperate to snap a two-game skid. The Bulldogs win a low-scoring game outright as a short underdog, and Lebby gets the win over the program that gave him his start.