The WTA Finals kicks off on November 8th this year and runs through the 15th. The event was originally scheduled to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but was relocated due to regional safety concerns. In the annual year-end tournament, players are split into two round-robin groups of four, with the top two in each advancing to the semifinals. Here’s how each player’s chances stack up, ranked by their likelihood of winning based on their record against fellow top-10 opponents.

1. Elena Rybakina

Rybakina is the defending champion and went undefeated to win the title last season. In this year’s field, she also has the best record against top-10 opponents at 15-5, which is an impressive 75% win rate. She has won four titles in 2026, including the Australian Open and US Open, beating Aryna Sabalenka in both finals. 

The largest risk looming over Rybakina is her health going into the tournament. The world No. 1 withdrew from her Tokyo quarterfinal on October 30th with a neck injury, and her fitness is a major question hanging over her title defense. If she’s healthy, though, Rybakina remains the player to beat, with a 45-8 hard-court record over the past 52 weeks.

2. Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka won Indian Wells in March, beating Rybakina in the final after saving a championship point. She also won two other titles this season in Miami and Brisbane, giving her a total of three trophies this season. What’s surprising, however, is that Sabalenka went without taking home a Grand Slam for the first time since 2022.

Her 11-4 record against top-10 players is second only to Rybakina’s, but she’s 7-8 in deciding sets this season, and hasn’t won a title since the Sunshine Double. The top two seeds have been known to meet for duels in tournament finals, and we could see that again this year in Indian Wells. Sabelenka has been the WTA Finals runner-up twice, including last year, and she hopes to finally take home the title this season.

3. Elina Svitolina

Svitolina won the WTA Finals in 2018 and has the third-best record against top-10 opponents this season at 8-5 or 61.5%. She won Rome this year by beating Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, and Gauff in consecutive matches, and she is 21-6 in deciding sets. Svitolina is one of three former Finals champions in the field, along with Rybakina and Gauff, and her familiarity may prove beneficial in this year’s stacked field.

4. Jessica Pegula

Pegula’s 9-9 record against top-10 opponents is modest, but her 21-8 mark in deciding sets reflects how she handles long matches. She won two WTA events in Dubai and Charleston in 2026, and has beaten both Sabalenka and Svitolina this season. The main concern for Pegula is that she’s now lost three straight finals since Charleston, and she returned from a break in Wuhan only to lose to Jelena Ostapenko in her first match.

5. Coco Gauff

Gauff is the third former champion in this year’s field, having won the WTA Finals in 2024. This season, she won the title in Cincinnati and went 9-1 in tiebreaks over the past 52 weeks. However, she’s also just 6-8 against top-10 players and has lost twice to Rybakina this season. She withdrew from Wuhan, saying her body needed rest, so her health is also in question heading into the Finals.

6. Karolina Muchova

Muchova has put together a strong season so far, winning her first WTA 1000 title in Doha in addition to another title in Bad Homburg. She also reached the Wimbledon final, and her 6-5 record against the top 10 is respectable, but she is only 3-5 against top-10 players on hard courts. This is her first time actually playing the event, after she qualified in 2023 but withdrew due to an injury.

7. Mirra Andreeva

Andreeva won the French Open for her first major title this season, adding two more titles in Adelaide and Linz. She’s recorded 50 wins this season, but her 1-5 record against the top 10 is by far the weakest in the field. At just 19 years old, she’s making her first Finals appearance and lacks the experience of other competitors. She is familiar with the venue, though, winning Indian Wells by beating Sabalenka in 2025.

8. Linda Noskova

Noskova won two titles this year at Wimbledon and Berlin, and is a major dark horse in this year’s WTA Finals. She’s the least proven hard court player in the field, and has the fewest wins of all players at 35-15. Noskova is 4-5 against top-10 opponents, including 1-4 on hard courts. However, she has beaten Muchova, Pegula, Gauff, and Svitolina this season, and she pushed Sabalenka to a deciding-set tiebreak in the US Open quarterfinals. The bigger question is her health, since she withdrew from Wuhan with a left calf injury, and this is her first WTA Finals.

Who Will Win the 2026 WTA Finals?

The numbers point to a two-woman race at the top of the field, with Rybakina and Sabalenka being the only players above 70% against top-10 opponents. The two split their four meetings in 2026, with Rybakina taking the Australian Open and US Open finals, and Sabalenka winning the Indian Wells final and a Miami semifinal.

Behind them, the field is tightly packed, with Svitolina (61.5%), Muchova (54.5%), Pegula (50%), Noskova (44.4%), and Gauff (42.9%) all within 20% of one another in win rate against top-10 opponents. Andreeva’s 16.7% is the lone outlier, though she has played well this season and will be making her WTA Finals debut.

Injuries are another variable, since Rybakina’s neck and Noskova’s left calf both remain open questions heading into the week.