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Emmett Johnson Week 10 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season implications

This summer I discussed why it was so important for fantasy managers to target Kenneth Walker's handcuff in drafts. Walker was coming off a career-high 326 touches (including the playoffs) and might need to be held in check. The first part was right, and I was completely wrong on the second part. Walker has been simply incredible.

But the Seahawks worked him heavily: a 393-touch pace in the regular season, which would have ballooned to450 in the playoffs. For a guy who usually topped out at around 250 until last year, this dramatic usage shift brings plenty of benefits and equally severe consequences.

Now Emmett Johnson will take over the backfield for at least one game. The rookie has played better than any of Kansas City's starters last year. In other words, he's been a fifth-round bargain so far, and there's plenty of room for 16+ touches.

One potential concern (and it's minor given what we've seen from Johnson so far) is that some RBs entering the league over the past 30 years had monster workloads in their final college season. When that workload has exceeded 50% of their total college workload, these running backs almost always flop as rookies. Tyler Allgeier (2022) is one of the only exceptions.

Johnson could become one of the most successful rookie fantasy RBs in this group. He's the RB49 in points per game and could be a fantasy hero in Week 10. The opposing Falcons are giving up 4.7 yards per carry to running backs. A strong performance from Johnson could -- when Walker returns -- compel the Chiefs to adjust their current 80-20 backfield touch split, preserving Walker a bit more for the playoffs and elevating Johnson to streamable status.

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