The Oklahoma Sooners put themselves back in the win column Saturday afternoon, beating Mississippi State 23-15 in Starkville. It may have just been a one-score win for the Sooners, but they played a much better game than the score indicated. Especially on offense.

Though the score was much closer than it should have been, it was the third game in a row the Sooners put something positive on tape on offense.

John Mateer completed 76% of his passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns and should have been credited with another touchdown on a nice throw to Rocky Beers in the end zone after the ball was knocked loose well after the play.

It may be too little too late for Oklahoma after losses to Michigan, Georgia, and Kentucky, but if they run the table, the Sooners could put themselves in position to make the SEC title game or the College Football Playoff. With five games to go, the Sooners have a chance to finish the season strong but will have to keep up the same level of offensive consistency.

Each week, we look at how ESPN's matchup predictor projects each game on the Oklahoma Sooners' schedule. Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare over the remainder of the 2026 season.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Oklahoma gaining momentum

The Oklahoma Sooners may only be projected to finish 6-6, but they gained win-probability points in each remaining matchup, including their victory over Mississippi State. The Sooners may not have a great shot at winning out according to the ESPN Football Power Index, but they have a shot. If they win out, they'll be in the conversation for an at-large bid for the College Football Playoff, especially with their win over the Texas Longhorns.