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Week 9 is here and Baylor could look like a different team when it takes the field. The Bears are headed down to Orlando for a Friday night contest against the Knights. UCF is coming off an incredible overtime win over BYU, which gave the Cougars their first loss of the season.
As for Baylor, the Bears fired Dave Aranda in his seventh season at the helm. Joe Klanderman has taken over as interim head coach and Baylor's coaching search is underway.
Baylor on SI came up with some game props and picked what might happen on Friday night.
DJ Lagway has been over this total in two of his last four games, but it does appear that Lagway is getting healthier, which only bodes well for the Bears' offense. UCF doesn't have a great passing defense, and with Baylor struggling to run the ball, Lagway will have to throw to win.
Personally, I would not touch Lagway O/U lines with a six-foot pole. Through seven games, I still don’t know what to think about his arm talent and decision making. It could very well be another 50% completion, ugly game for Lagway. However, if Baylor plays ‘free’ and ‘energized’ like they have been stressing, Lagway will be at his best and cruise past this line with the help of some trusty receivers and their yards after catch ability.
There is absolutely no reason that DJ Lagway should be under 239 passing yards this week. Yes, Dave Aranda was just fired; but OC Jake Spavital has been calling the offensive plays this season, and is allegedly being now given "the freedom to be as creative as he wants to be" as interim head coach Joe Klanderman said during Media Availability on Monday. He only had 236 yards passing against Kansas last week, but I expect Lagway to excel this week against UCF, playing more freely, and finding numerous receivers on his way to having more than 240 yards passing. I'm taking the OVER on this one.
I’m leaning toward the over on this one. Even in games where Baylor has struggled offensively, Lagway has found a way to cover this line. I also think Jake Spavital will get creative and find ways to open up the passing game for this offense.
UCF’s pass defense has been inconsistent this year averaging just about 240 passing yards per game this year. and Lagway hasn't been under 225 since the Colorado game, coming back from injury.
UCF is a top-five team in the Big 12 in sacks allowed. Baylor has an aggressive defense and should get to Keyone Jenkins. But Jenkins is a mobile quarterback who can escape pressure. Scott Frost will dial up some quick passes on Friday in hopes of not allowing Jenkins to stand in the pocket and take heat.
The defensive line and linebacker play have been the cornerstone of the Bears’ defense and will continue to be against UCF. Klanderman has sent some well-timed blitzes, and knows how to keep the opposing QB off balance. The Bears had five sacks against Kansas and should at least scare that mark again on Friday.
The Bears have the 2nd most sacks in all of the FBS in the first half of games with 17. Baylor has had 3 or more QB sacks in every game except against LA Tech back in September, I don't expect that trend to slow down any time soon. UCF QB Keyone Jenkins, as a playmaker, is going to look to take advantage of Baylor's aggression on the defensive line, but I fully expect Coach Klanderman and the Bears defense to be prepared for exactly that. This game has the potential for a high-count of TFLs, Sks, and FFs . I'm taking an emphatic OVER on this one.
Baylor’s defense has been great at generating pressure all season, but I think they’ll finish with two sacks in this matchup. UCF has only allowed more than two sacks in one game this season. The Knights gave up two sacks to both TCU and Houston, along with one sack to BYU and Oklahoma State. Although I’m taking the under, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears come away with three sacks.
Although I do think they can get some pressure on UCF. I think it'll be just about two or maybe even one. Keyone Jenkins showed the ability to escape the pocket and make plays. BYU was able to get just one sack all game with their defense. My prediction is Baylor will likely be the same
Baylor has a good defense, but the Bears have allowed the opposing quarterback to throw for over 251 yards in three of their last four games. Keyone Jenkins has thrown for over 251 yards in his last three outings. The Knights are riding the hot hand and Jenkins' up-tempo style of play can cause some havoc.
The Baylor defense has a way of giving up a decent amount of yards without surrendering too many points, allowing 340 per game while averaging just 16.1 points against. The secondary tends to allow some long drives early in the game and the occasional explosive play downfield. I expect UCF to take advantage as much as they can early on.
He's had some bigger games recently against the 'Pokes (265 yards) and BYU (293 yards), but on the season Keyone Jenkins is only averaging 157 passing yards a game. Not to mention that late in the BYU game, Jenkins would make a visit to the medical tent after being shaken up on a play. There's a chance that his overall drop-backs and longer-developing throws may be limited this week against a Bears defense who will be looking to continue their aggressive gameplay. Provided that Baylor's secondary can limit the penalties being called on them, they're among the top units in all of college football and always hungry for another INT. Keyone Jenkins does not throw for 250 yards in this game; I'm taking the UNDER on this one,
Baylor has done a good job of limiting explosive passing plays this season, and I think that trend will continue against UCF. If the Bears can prevent Jenkins from connecting on big plays, I don’t see him surpassing 250 passing yards against this defense. If this game turns into a shootout, he could go over, but I don’t expect that to happen.
Although I believe Jenkins will have another solid game, 250 is a lot against this relentless defense. I'm gonna say it'll be just under, but not by much, Jenkins hasn't been under 250 since September against TCU, but the Bears should bring enough pressure for Jenkins to just miss that mark
Until Baylor proves it can run the ball, it's hard to put trust in the run game. It's not due to the running backs themselves. I do think Baylor has a good stable of backs, but the offensive line has been too inconsistent for my liking. This game will come down to DJ Lagway's arm.
If Baylor intends on winning this game, they have no choice but to run the ball and run it well. Lagway has shown that he is back to 100% and the O-line is playing with a fire lit under them after struggling in the last couple of games. While I am not convinced by the Bears’ ground game whatsoever, they will get over this total with a lot of help from Lagway.
There is zero reason why the Bears shouldn't be able to be well over this mark; except there are, in fact, five reasons why Baylor could miss this target. The Bears offensive line has not had great success this season at fully establishing a solid push and a dominant running game. They're working hard, like to block with and for each other and the Bears team, and seem to be giving it their all; but they've been ineffective throughout most of the season. They've had a 94.5% success rate of keeping the pocket clean on pass plays this season, but have only been able to gain 3.79 rushing yards a carry this season. Currently the Bears are averaging 146.14 rushing yards per game, and unless Dave Aranda getting fired is the catalyst these guys needed to become a stronger unit, I don't see Baylor gaining more than 160 rushing yards; I'm taking the UNDER.
Baylor’s running game has been an issue all season, and I don’t expect that to change against the Knights. Against TCU, Baylor averaged just 1.6 yards per carry. Even against Kansas, one of the worst rushing defenses in the conference, the Bears averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, including Lagway’s rushing yards. Based on Baylor’s struggles on the ground this season, I’m taking the under on 160.5 rushing yards.
After a rough two weeks of running the ball for Baylor, I don't expect much to change in this one. UCF is coming off a huge win and is ranked 38th in the country in rushing yards allowed on defense. It's going to be a real struggle if the Bears want to move the ball on the ground, and early passing will likely be needed to get any type of momentum on offense.
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