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SP+ Predicts Final Score For Georgia Tech-Louisville Matchup

How does the SP+ see the matchup shaping out?

Oct 31, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers wide receiver Cataurus Hicks (3) runs after a catch as Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defensive backs Tae Harris (27) and Kelvin Hill (6) defend during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Georgia Tech is on a current three-game losing streak, and the season has gotten away from the team in the program, which is on pace to have its worst season in the Brent Key era. It’s been a mixture of bad coaching, players missing assignments, not making plays, an inconsistent offense, and a defense often looking lost.

There have been a multitude of problems that have led to a rough season for the Yellow Jackets. Let’s take a look at how things look for their next matchup and how SP+ sees it shaping up. 

Georgia Tech is a massive underdog by the sportsbooks and most power rating systems ahead of Saturday’s game, including ESPN analyst Bill Connelly's SP+.

For those who don't know, here is how Connelly describes what SP+ is: "As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking."

Georgia Tech opens as a big underdog at home vs. Louisville. Connelly has a projected 38-22 win for Louisville over the Yellow Jackets. He gives the Cardinals an 85% chance to win the game over Georgia Tech.

Will Georgia Tech fix its defensive issues

The Yellow Jackets did show some promise last week and made some plays that resulted in three turnovers forced, their most since 2024. Despite forcing those turnovers, the offense couldn’t take advantage. There were still massive struggles for the Yellow Jackets despite improved play. They are still struggling with getting lined up and being in position to make plays.

We see that in the run defense. Pittsburgh ran loose for 281 yards and three touchdowns. They are still missing tackles and taking poor angles to bring down ball carriers. Here is head coach Brent Key on those plays. 

"Um, that's something that has been addressed, and something will continue to be addressed tomorrow. There weren't times when they were put out where they end up getting in position, but you know, when you're standing there not your cleats aren't set anchor down the defensive line. You can't get any knockback. So then I look and see how much that led to other things. But yeah, you're right. End of the day, get down, get a call, and get set play,” said Key. 

It’s been a glaring problem all year for the Yellow Jackets despite seeing some good signs. They still struggled to get set and make enough plays on defense. The same defensive lapses face them every week, with no solution in sight. We will see if they can figure things out vs. Louisville this week.

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