It feels like just yesterday that I was betting on Paul Skenes to light up the Mets and keep them from scoring on Opening Day of the baseball season. I was dead wrong about that one because Skenes didn’t even last two innings in the game. Since then, it has been a pretty strong baseball season overall, but I’ve struggled a bit in the postseason. Game 1 of the World Series is tonight, and I’m looking forward to getting a win in this one.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been better at home than on the road this season, but in the playoffs they’ve gone 3-1. They were the best team in the American League and beat the Yankees, a divisional foe, in three games in the American League Division Series. It was a bit harder for them in the American League Championship Series as the Guardians took the Rays to six games. Ultimately, the Rays stopped the Cleveland offense, and that made the difference for the club in the series.

Tonight, they are sending out Nick Martinez to the hill. For the season, Martinez was 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He only has 109 strikeouts for the season; he isn’t really a power pitcher. He finds ways to get guys out, and that’s really what matters. In the postseason, he has allowed three earned runs over nine innings with just six strikeouts and three walks. He did not face the Brewers at all this season, but they are hitting .246 against him over 122 at-bats.

The Milwaukee Brewers were the best team in baseball this season, and they’ve looked like the best team in baseball in the postseason. The Brewers went 103-59 this season and were almost 30 games above .500 in Milwaukee. In the postseason, they’ve looked absolutely dominant, getting rid of the Padres in just four games. If you watched the Padres-Brewers series, you might have said the Padres could’ve won it. You’d be right. There were some odd games, but the Brewers never said die. That was the same result in the Dodgers series. Every time the Brewers went down, they came back and ultimately won the game.

It won’t be an easy night with Martinez on the mound, but they have their own elite starter going. Jacob Misiorowski takes the ball and brings a great campaign with him. He went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. He is a power pitcher and could throw one at 110 mph with all the adrenaline that will be going in this game. I only somewhat joke about that. He was elite in Milwaukee this season, posting a 1.52 ERA. In the postseason, he has looked a bit shaky. He has made two starts, gone 8.1 innings, and allowed three earned runs. He has allowed nine hits and four walks as well, which gives me a bit of concern. He faced the Rays earlier in the year and allowed two earned runs on four hits over six innings while striking out seven hitters.

The Rays are a team that struggles against power pitching. Something feels different about the Brewers this season, like they are destined to win this year. I actually think Martinez starting is a terrible look for the Rays. It feels a bit like they will lose to Misiorowski, and they know it. I'm going to take the Brewers on the run line at +129. Pitching advantage, home field, and this lineup has the edge in this one and I don't think it will be close.

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