One of the best games in Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season takes place in Foxborough, Mass. as the New England Patriots (5-3) host the Green Bay Packers (5-3) as both teams battle for playoff position in their respective conferences. 

Drake Maye and the Patriots have battled a ton of injuries this season, yet they’re in the mix for the AFC East lead and are coming off a crucial win on the road over Miami in Week 8. The Patriots made the Super Bowl last season, so anything short of a playoff berth would be a massive disappointment in 2026. 

Meanwhile, the Packers have won four of five games after a 1-2 start, riding some great play from quarterback Jordan Love. The Pack are in the mix to win the NFC North, which currently features four teams above .500 as we near the halfway point of the regular season. 

Oddsmakers have set the Patriots as favorites in this matchup, though this game does feature one of the closer spreads of the week. 

All season long, the SI Betting team is predicting the final score of NFL games, a fun way to help bettors decide on spread, moneyline and total wagers each week. Who wouldn’t love to hit an exact score bet as well in this matchup? 

Both the Packers and Patriots have playoff expectations in the 2026 season, and the winner of this matchup will be in a much better spot to get there at the halfway point of the season. Here’s a breakdown of my score prediction for the marquee matchup of the 4 p.m. window on Sunday. 

Packers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total 

Spread

• Packers +3 (-105)
• Patriots -3 (-115)

Moneyline

• Packers: +142
• Patriots: -170

Total

• 46.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

New England opened up as a 2.5-point favorite in this matchup, and the odds have since moved in the Patriots’ favor, as they’re now favored by three. On top of that, the total has fallen from 47.5 to 46.5 ahead of kickoff on Sunday. 

Packers vs. Patriots Score Prediction

Each week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan picks every single game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s targeting the Packers as underdogs in this matchup on Sunday: 

These two teams are much too similar not to take the side that's getting a field goal's worth of points. They are both teams that are led by efficient quarterbacks who have bad offensive lines and no run game. They are also two teams with defenses that have been better than people expected this season.

They rank sixth and seventh in net yards per play. The Patriots have the advantage in offensive EPA per play at sixth compared to 12th, but the Packers have the advantage in defensive EPA at seventh compared to the Patriots at 16th.

In my opinion, it's a coin-flip game, which leads to the question of how much you value the Patriots' home-field advantage. I think it's a 2-point advantage in this matchup, so I'll take the Packers getting three.

New England is 20th in the league in EPA/Pass and eighth in EPA/Rush on defense, so the Packers and Jordan Love are likely going to lean on their elite passing game on Sunday. The Pack are coming off a mini-bye after playing on Thursday against Carolina, and they’ve won four of their last five games after a 1-2 start.

Meanwhile, New England is extremely banged up at receiver and was in a dogfight against the lowly Miami Dolphins in Week 8 before pulling away in the second half. The Pats have struggled a bit against elite competition this season, losing to Seattle, Jacksonville and Chicago.

Plus, the Packers are quietly fifth in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense. I’ll take it a step further than MacMillan – I think they pull off an upset on Sunday.  

Final Score Prediction: Packers 27, Patriots 23