You have to give the NFL credit for one thing -- its unpredictability. How else to explain that rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza will get his first regular-season start after undrafted rookie free agents Jalon Daniels and Joe Fagnano did? The Mendoza era starts for the Raiders on Sunday in Las Vegas with a tough test against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Sign up to bet on NFL games using the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

It's a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS from Allegiant Stadium, so no weather concerns. As 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings, Seattle is taking 91% of the handle and 85% of the wagers. On the total of 40.5, there's solid action on the Over. That's a little contradictory to me, fading a rookie QB but going Over the total. Then again, the Raiders' defense is awful.

Seahawks vs. Raiders same-game parlay 

• Seattle alt -2.5
• Raiders alt Over 12.5 points

DraftKings SGP price: +120 (subject to change)

The only reason Mendoza is getting his chance is because the Raiders shipped out Kirk Cousins to Minnesota at Tuesday's trade deadline for a third-round pick. It's a nice deal for Las Vegas considering it signed Cousins off the scrap heap in the offseason and obviously this is Mendoza's team going forward.

That trade completely altered the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race as Mendoza went from +2000 at DraftKings to the current +300 favorite. Cleveland wideout Denzel Boston was the +350 leader but is now second at +500.

It's definitely a late start for a No. 1 overall QB. Only three of the previous 29 signal-callers selected No. 1 overall since 1967 waited longer than Mendoza to make their first start: Carson Palmer, JaMarcus Russell and Vinny Testaverde. Palmer sat out his entire 2003 rookie campaign.

The last such QB to wait this long to get his first start was the Rams' Jared Goff debuting in his team's 10th game in 2016. Mendoza will be the first No. 1 overall pick QB to make his first career start vs the NFL's No. 1 total defense since Testaverde, like Mendoza a former Heisman Trophy winner, did so in Week 13 of 1987 against the Saints. Testaverde was 22-for-47 for 369 yards, two touchdowns, two picks and two fumbles lost – that's Vinny for you.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Mendoza at 21-for-33 for 179 yards, 1.43 TDs and 1.13 INTs while rushing 3.4 times for 12 yards. DK has him at Over/Under 180 passing yards, +232 for at least two TD throws and -150 for a pick. That he throws a TD or INT first are both -120. One book also gives an O/U of 3.5 wins this season for him.

Mendoza saw action in a Week 5 blowout loss in New England, completing 6 of 8 for 48 yards while rushing once for 3 yards. He will be the sixth first-round QB to make his first NFL start against the defending Super Bowl champion and the first since Justin Herbert in 2020. None won.

Seattle's stellar defense is allowing the fewest total yards per game (244.2) through nine games in the NFL since 2023, the fewest yards per play (4.1) through nine since '23 and has surrendered the fewest 20-yard plays (17) through nine since 2008.

Be aware that No. 1 overall picks are 1-15-1 (3-14 ATS) in their first career start since 2004 with the only winner being Chicago's Caleb Williams in 2024. Those teams average 18.2 PPG and are being outscored by 9.8 PPG.

Had Cousins not been traded, the big story line here would have been  Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak vs. the Seahawks as he was their offensive coordinator for last season's Super Bowl run. Thus, Sunday will mark the first rookie starting QB and head coaching duo in NFL history with both coming off championship seasons after Mendoza won it all at Indiana in January.

Las Vegas, meanwhile, ranks last in the NFL in scoring (29.8 PPG) and total defense (385.4 YPG). It has allowed at least 30 points in six straight games, tied for the longest streak within a season all-time in league history with a handful of teams (most recently the 2020 Lions and Vikings). Raiders games have had a league-high average of 56.2 combined points scored. The Over has hit in seven straight Raiders games, tied for their longest run since 1980.

Seattle again goes with backup Drew Lock under center with Sam Darnold banged up. Lock has won his past three starts (3-0 ATS) with the team dating to 2023 with zero turnovers. But dating to his Denver days, Lock is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in his past eight away.

He now has been favored in all three of his 2026 starts overall after entering the season being favored in just two of 28 previously. The Seahawks were 16-2 in their first 18 regular-season road games under Mike Macdonald but have since dropped their past two.

I could see Seattle's defense sleepwalking a bit early in this one expecting to dominate a rookie -- and the team is on the bye up next so players could be looking forward to that. I at least wanted to get where we'd win if the Raiders got to 13 points. Surely Mendoza can lead three scoring drives: one TD and two field goals, even if one is in garbage time. The model has the Seahawks winning 29-20. I'll take 16-13. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.