GREEN BAY, Wis. – It’s just one game.

Unless it’s not.

The Green Bay Packers will host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. It will be an enormous game for the Packers, who have won five of their last six games to improve to 6-3 but are still stuck in last place in the juggernaut NFC North.

“Yeah, you’ve got to bring it every week. You’ve got to be your best,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “There’s not a lot of room for error in our division right now, and that’s just the reality of it. And I think it puts a healthy kind of pressure on you, to make sure that you’re present each and every day, and you’re pouring everything you can into this thing.

“Because, the one thing that is definitely true about our league is, anybody can be anybody. It doesn’t matter who you’re playing, when you’re playing, where you’re playing. You’ve got to bring it, and if you don’t, you will get beat.”

Here’s a look at the playoff standings entering Week 10 and what the computer models say about the importance of Sunday’s rivalry rematch.

NFC Playoff Standings

The Four Division Leaders

1. San Francisco 49ers, 7-1.

2. Chicago Bears, 7-2.

3. New York Giants, 5-2-1.

4. Carolina Panthers, 3-5.

Death, taxes, the NFC North is good at football pic.twitter.com/BCPzyESFAX

— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 9, 2026

The Three Wild-Card Front-Runners

5. Detroit Lions, 6-2.

6. Minnesota Vikings, 6-2.

7. Green Bay Packers, 6-3.

Hot on Their Heels

8. Seattle Seahawks, 5-4.

9. Los Angeles Rams, 5-4.

10. Dallas Cowboys, 4-5.

Rest of the NFC South

11. New Orleans Saints, 3-5.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-6.

13. Atlanta Falcons, 3-6.

The NFC North has the same number of wins as the entire NFC South and NFC East COMBINED pic.twitter.com/DSPyFJ3z7F

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) November 9, 2026

Playoff Long Shots

14. Arizona Cardinals, 3-6.

15. Washington Commanders, 2-5-1.

16. Philadelphia Eagles, 2-7.

If The Season Were to End Today …

The Packers would be in a familiar spot and play a familiar team, entering the playoffs as the No. 7 seed and facing the rival Chicago Bears in the wild-card round.

The seventh seed is practically a death sentence. If the No. 7 can beat the No. 2 on the road, then the reward is a game at the No. 1, which is San Francisco. A win would get the Packers to 7-3, a half-game ahead of the Vikings.

To win, the Packers are going to have to do a better job handling the Vikings’ relentless blitz packages than they did in Week 1. Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich was multitasking when the Vikings played the Bills on Monday night.

“You’re kind of doing your prep for game planning and then you got the game on in the background, so you’re kind of watching the situational stuff and just, ‘Oh, it’s third down. Let me check in on it and see what’s going on,’” he said. “It’s kind of the same thing with Minnesota’s defense. They’re aggressive, they’re good and they do a really nice job, so it’s going to be a big challenge for us.”

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, the Packers have the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule. That’s life in the NFC North, of course, with Sunday’s game against the Vikings being one of their three remaining division games.

The Bears have the toughest remaining slate, with their eight opponents having a .631 winning percentage. They have four division games left along with matchups against Buffalo and Jacksonville.

The Packers are next at .576, with games against each NFC North team along with Buffalo and the Rams. The Lions are third at .558, with two games against the Packers and one each against the Vikings, Packers, Giants and Patriots. The Rams are fourth at .557, with two games against Seattle and one against the 49ers, Chiefs and Packers. The Vikings are sixth at .539, with games against each of the division teams as well as the 49ers and Patriots.

The remaining opponents for the Seahawks, who are one game behind the Packers, have a .514 winning percentage.

Packers Playoff Chances

Here’s what the computers say about the Packers’ playoff chances.

At ESPN, the Packers have a 62 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. With a win, that would climb to 75 percent. With a loss, that would fall to 45 percent. That’s a 30-point swing in one game. They have an 11 percent chance of winning the NFC North.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Predictor, the Packers have a 64 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, with a 13 percent chance of winning the division. The last-place Packers have the lowest playoff odds among the division teams, with the Bears at 88 percent, Vikings at 75 percent and Lions at 72 percent.

The Packers’ playoff chances would surge to 76 percent with a win but fall to 46 percent with a loss. If they can sweep the Vikings and Rams, they’d be at 90 percent.

At NFL.com, the Packers have a 62 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That would improve to 74 percent with a win but fall to 45 percent with a loss, a 29-point swing.

At Playoff Status, the Packers have a 66 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. The other NFC North teams are over 80 percent, led by the Vikings at 87 percent. With a win, Green Bay would climb to 77 percent. With a loss, it would fall to 56 percent.

Using Stick to the Model’s Playoff Machine, the Packers have a 62 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That would improve to 72 percent with a win but fall to 40 percent with a loss – a wild 32-point swing that is the largest in the league this week.

“We talk about the same thing every time. We got to take a mindset of one week at a time,” quarterback Jordan Love said after crushing the Patriots. “You want to stack wins. So, got two wins here.

“Obviously, we got Minnesota coming to our house next week, someone who we lost to earlier in the season. So, we got to be able to regroup, have a great week of prep, and go and attack that week. And then, obviously, we got the bye coming up after that. But I think the mindset’s just got to be all complete focus and preparation on Minnesota. And you know you can’t let one game kind of lull you to sleep.”

Winners and losers for the Packers after yet another do-nothing trade deadline. ⬇️https://t.co/HGChjLebyh

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 11, 2026