It’s shaping out to be a two-man race to win the NFL MVP between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Following Week 9, Kalshi’s NFL MVP market flipped Burrow over Allen at the top of the board. Burrow now leads at 33% while Josh Allen sits at 22%. 

Burrow’s price surged 12% from last week, while Josh Allen’s price took a hit. A $10 trade on Burrow winning the MVP nets $18.93 while Allen profits $31.21.

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Burrow makes the jump

Another week, another MVP performance for Joe Burrow. This time, he made a name on the international stage in the NFL Madrid Game, where he exploded for 271 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and a rushing score. He also completed a season-high 82.8% of his passes. With his performance, his totals are 2,386 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions at a 79.6 QBR while completing an even 74% of his passes. 

With winning being taken into consideration in the final MVP voting, it makes Burrow’s case even stronger. The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-2 and in first place in the AFC North. They’ve also won four straight games going into Week 10. They also have games against the Saints, Colts, Commanders, and Panthers, who are all under .500.

Josh Allen losing ground?

After leading the market for most of the first half and peaking at 36%, Josh Allen has dropped 14%. Despite the Buffalo Bills' 7-1 record and first-place standing in the AFC East, Allen has had a “sluggish” last two weeks.

Allen went for 289 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, one interception, 40 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown in Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens. He followed that up with 234 passing yards, one passing touchdown, one interception,  and 15 rushing yards in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings. 

His performance against the Vikings alone brought his price down 3%. It was his second straight game with an interception, he was sacked four times, and averaged a season-low 7.5 yards per completion.

In Week 11, Burrow is in action at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers while Josh Allen and the Bills are on the road against the New York Jets.