Let's make it clear from the start: The odds are very much against the San Diego Padres trading Fernando Tatis Jr., in this or any other offseason. Tatis Jr. reminded everybody just how electric he can be down the stretch of the 2026 campaign, and the last thing a new ownership group would want is to let that sort of magnetism walk out the door.

And yet, at a certain point, the math stops mathing — even for an executive as skilled in the art of defying gravity as AJ Preller. The Padres have tons of holes to fill, particularly in their starting rotation, but with $721 million tied up in long-term deals for Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, it's unclear how much money they'll have to do it, even with their ownership question now resolved.

The Machado and Bogaerts deals are already underwater; San Diego would have to attach value just to get either of them off their books. Which is why, once again, attention has turned to Tatis Jr., with USA Today's Bob Nightengale floating the idea of a trade in his column on Monday from the GM Meetings in Las Vegas. The Padres wouldn't even consider moving Tatis Jr. for anything less than a haul, given his two-way value and the fact that his current deal isn't even all that unreasonable (he's locked up through 2034, his age-35 season, at just over $24 million a year for luxury tax purposes). But if one of many, many big-market contenders meets that bar, Preller might have to think long and hard about saying yes.

The Yankees line up well for Fernando Tatis Jr. trade

*Yankees also include RHP Thatcher Hurd (No. 6 prospect)

The Yankees could really use another dynamic bat who could toggle between both the outfield and second base. Tatis Jr. would totally transform a lineup that simply hasn't been good enough over the last couple of postseasons, all without unduly breaking the bank.

Ramos is at least a credible starting outfielder, while Garcia Jr. is one of the best righty-mashers in baseball who can help San Diego resolve its first base/DH conundrum with Ty France hitting free agency and Gavin Sheets a plausible trade candidate as he moves through arbitration. The real draw here, though, is the Yankees' wealth of young, controllable starting pitchers — something that the Padres would certainly prioritize in any Tatis Jr. deal.

Will Warren more than fits the bill as a current No. 4 starter with the potential for more. From there, San Diego could ask for multiple other arms, from Ryan Weathers at the big-league level to prospects like Lagrange, Elmer Rodriguez, Ben Hess or even 2026 first-round pick Hunter Dietz.

The Mets need to make a splash around their young core

The Mets would undoubtedly have interest in Tatis Jr., whether they stick him in left field or on the infield somewhere. But New York's dearth of outfield prospects and young pitchers means they'll have to dip into their homegrown core to get a deal done.

Nolan McLean and rightful NL Rookie of the Year Carson Benge aren't going anywhere, under any circumstances. It's hard to figure out how to send commensurate value back to San Diego without tapping Ewing and Scott, though — a stiff price to pay, but worth it given the question marks still remaining in their game (at least as it pertains to their ability to reach their respective ceilings) and the difference Tatis Jr. could make for this team.

From the Padres' perpsective, Ewing is an extremely high-floor player with tons of upside left to tap into and multiple pre-arb years left. Santucci is an enticing pitching prospect in his own right who reached Triple-A last year, and there's something to be said for valuing quality or quantity in a trade package like this.

The Red Sox are a perfect fit for Fernando Tatis Jr.

Boston needs right-handed bats, and a way to resolve its outfield logjam. This kills two birds with one stone, all while leaving plenty of pitching for a potential World Series run in 2027.

Despite San Diego's well-documented interest in the past, Jarren Duran simply isn't good enough to headline a trade like this at this point. Then again, giving up Abreu would hurt given his two-way value and cost control, so to make it worth the Red Sox' while, the Padres also take the rest of Masataka Yoshida's contract off their hands. Yoshida is a uniquely poor fit in Boston right now, but he's still a useful player in the right context, and San Diego has much more of a use for him. Add in two legit young pitchers in Bennett and Valera, and there's plenty to like here from both sides.