Baylor might be the best case study regarding how much stock should be placed in exhibitions. Scott Drew's Bears were picked seventh in CBS Sports' Big 12 preview. That was far more optimistic than the Big 12 preseason poll that tabbed Baylor 10th! Both look iffy right now, though, after Baylor knocked off No. 1 Florida (in Jacksonville, aka the Gators' backyard) and No. 3 Illinois (in a true road game) in its first two exhibitions.

Real or fake? Only time will tell.

The reality is that numerous things can be true:

1. Fact: Baylor's point guard play is way better. Penn State transfer Kayden Mingo blowtorched Florida and Illinois and is primed for a massive sophomore season. 
2. Fact: Baylor still has a very thin frontcourt, and beat-up Illinois didn't have All-American 4-man David Mirkovic.

Baylor is clearly much improved, but I don't think rushing to crown the Bears as a no-doubt, top-20 team is the way to go quite yet. Check back in on Dec. 1 after Baylor heads to Las Vegas for the Player's Era. We'll know if the exhibitions were a sign of things to come or just utterly pointless.

With that in mind and context at the forefront of the discussion, let's dive into what's maybe real and maybe fake from the wave of college basketball exhibitions. 

No. 23 Kentucky 76, No. 19 Texas Tech 65

What might be real: The Mason Williams emergence. The stocky 6-foot-3 freshman guard was not a top-100 recruit, but he is already a major part of this Kentucky puzzle. He deposited 14 points and made numerous winning plays, including collecting a huge offensive rebound that led to a Milan Momcilovic dagger with less than two minutes to go. Williams is so steady. He takes the easy stuff and provides another knockdown shooter who can play on or off the ball. He played five more minutes than Washington transfer Zoom Diallo and was on the floor during winning time. It was earned. 

What definitely isn't real: Texas Tech's style of play right now is not going to be the same once JT Toppin heals up and Jamichael Stillwell gets clearance from a judge in the 5-in-5 saga. Those are two major difference-makers for this Texas Tech frontcourt. Grant McCasland basically played four guards and 6-8 forward Josiah Moseley as a small-ball center for half the game. The lack of size impacts literally everything on offense and defense and basically forces Texas Tech to need to make double-digit triples to win. That being said, Texas Tech still was very live to win this game. It was tied at 54 with less than 8 minutes left to go. 

Final word: Texas Tech can't be a serious contender without Toppin because it doesn't have enough size. It is what it is. Kentucky will go as its point guard play goes this year. Furman transfer Alex Wilkins had moments of brilliance as a playmaker, especially with his push-ahead looks in transition or pick-and-roll dots. But he also made some poor shot decisions. Meanwhile, Washington transfer Zoom Diallo looked rushed and all out of sorts for long stretches. The ebbs and flows with the point guard room will determine whether Kentucky is a good team or a great one. 

No. 12 Arkansas 76, No. 15 Gonzaga 72

What might be real: Arkansas' point-of-attack defense is so much better. Freshmen Jordan Smith Jr. and Abdou Toure are two long, athletic, bulldog guards who can turn the water off. It's a much different story compared to Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas, who were fantastic offensive dynamos but provided little resistance on defense.  Gonzaga point guards Nathan De Sousa and Javon Bennett shot a combined 3-for-25 (!) from the field. This feels like a sticky development for Arkansas.

What definitely isn't real: Gonzaga's offense won't be held to 0.97 points per possession very often this year. The Zags were without two major pieces in stud sophomore Davis Fogle (minor leg injury) and Chauncey Wiggins (5-in-5 red tape). Not having those two wings against this Arkansas team undoubtedly changed the tenor of the game.

Final word: Gonzaga and Arkansas are both top-20 teams with room to grow. Gonzaga's clearly going to be a handful because its bigs are terrific. Braden Huff, Davis Fogle and Massamba Diop are known commodities, but newly-cleared Spaniard big man Izan Almansa (14 points, six boards, two blocks, one 3-pointer) also looks like one of the best backup big men in America. Plus, Houston transfer Isiah Harwell looks way better now that he's healthy. The post-hype sleeper case with Harwell is alive and well.

Same goes for Arkansas. John Calipari's group is young, but the talent is so obvious. Up and down the rotation, it's clear as day that Calipari has a glutton of real-deal options. The fact that three freshmen like Toure (nine points), Davion Thompson (12 points) and JJ Andrews (10 points, nine boards) can come off the bench tells you all you need to know. Arkansas' interior defense is still a potential hot spot, but the improved point-of-attack defense gives it a chance to counteract that. Oh, and this diaper-dandy group could be a wagon at home. They were feeling that crowd at Bud Walton.

No. 2 Duke 90, No. 17 Kansas 84

What might be real: Duke's starting lineup is the best starting 5 in the country. Point guard Cayden Boozer is a high-feel connector who defends and facilitates. John Blackwell (23 points, 4-for-7 from downtown) is one of the top shooting guards in the country. Sophomore wing Dame Sarr is a defensive whiz, but he's become far more aggressive offensively and flashed an improved jumper and handle. Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje is a 7-1 deadeye from downtown who can pass and rebound. Big man Patrick Ngongba could very well be the best center in America. He torched the Jayhawks for 28 points, 10 rebounds and four dimes. Duke's depth gets a ton of buzz, but this starting lineup is ridiculous. Shooting, defense and size? It's all there.

What definitely isn't real: Any stat-based metric that does not have Tyran Stokes as a top-20 player in college basketball is not going to age well. Stokes is just too big to fail, and when he's making jumpers like he was against Duke, he's a total handful. Drawing fouls is a skill, and Stokes built a tent at the charity stripe (15 attempts). The playmaking is also top-notch. Stokes finished with 27 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. The future No. 1 pick is really good.

Final word: Duke is playing like a Tier 1 National Championship team, like we all predicted. Kansas could get there if it finds an answer at center. Christian Reeves and Paul Mbiya combined for just 10 minutes against Duke. Bill Self already seems positioned to play new big man Trey Kaufman-Renn a ton at the 5. TKR was primarily the 4-man for Purdue last year, but Kansas doesn't seem to trust its center platoon right now.

Quick hits

• Find me a better three-headed backcourt than what No. 13 St. John's can trot out in Quinn Ellis, Ian Jackson and Tounde Yessoufou. I'll hang up and wait. Ellis finished his three-game exhibition slate with 22 assists and just three turnovers after St. John's bulldozed a talented Texas squad, 87-74, at Madison Square Garden. Ellis is a steady, set-the-table, two-way point guard who has made life so much easier for Jackson and Yessoufou, who combined for 47 points against the Longhorns. Ellis' playmaking, Jackson's speed and shotmaking, and Yessoufou's powerful drives make a superb complementary trio. 
• Tom Izzo needs to figure out his center spot. No. 6 Michigan State lost to Marquette, 86-79, and both Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke and freshman center Ethan Taylor didn't start and didn't score. 
• It is very clear that No. 16 Michigan's defense is going to be a far worse unit than last year's squad of destroyers. Houston point guard Dedan Thomas had 25 points and seven assists in the Cougars' 83-66 win over Michigan. There is no Yaxel Lendeborg on this Michigan squad, and the JP Estrella-Mo Thiam combination will be a downgrade from Aday Mara and Morez Johnson.
• The Acaden Lewis hype continues at No. 14 Miami. The sophomore point guard had 23 points and 10 dimes in a win over Tyler Tanner and Vanderbilt. Lewis can be the ACC's best point guard. Full stop.