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Why Darian Mensah should remain Heisman front-runner after CJ Carr beat him

Just as it (eventually) did last year when the shoe was on the other foot, Notre Dame's win over Miami launched them over the Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff rankings.

That's fair and just, even if Miami plummeting all the way to No. 7 boggles the mind. What's more incredulous is the notion that the win should also vault CJ Carr ahead of Darian Mensah in what's become a wide-open Heisman Trophy race.

Yes, the Fighting Irish quarterback had his best game of what's been an impressive season. He picked apart the Canes defense to the tune of 29-of-40 passing for a season-high 319 yards and three touchdowns without an interception or a sack.

Know who else has put up similar numbers against Miami? Just about every quarterback who's faced their 127th-ranked pass defense across the past month-plus. Billy Edwards Jr. completed a season-best 82.4% of his passes for 341 yards and four TDs in North Carolina's near-upset. Pitt's backup, Holden Geriner, threw for a season-high 268 yards with a score and no picks. Florida State's Ashton Daniels came just shy of 300 yards and tossed a season-best four TDs (and arguably had a fifth twice in double overtime). And Tait Reynolds might not have thrown for a touchdown in Clemson's blowout loss, but he did go for a season-high 295 yards.

Darian Mensah or CJ Carr for Heisman?

With Ohio State's season cratering Jeremiah Smith's campaign and Malachi Toney's ankle injury ending his incredible season a month early, the Heisman race has once again become a competition to find the best quarterback in the nation. And while his candidacy was boosted heavily by Toney absorbing every defense's attention, Mensah showed in his first game without the super sophomore that he should still be the front-runner.

After going three-and-out on their first drive of the second half, Mensah was 6 of 13 for 74 yards with Miami trailing 24-3. That's when he finally found a rhythm, going 18 of 30 (60%) for 202 yards and three touchdowns with one interception, just his second of the season, the rest of the way. He came one well-timed swat by Notre Dame safety Luke Talich short of the game-tying score with 3:30 left in a valiant comeback effort.

Both QBs from that game have had laudatory seasons with an incredible aversion to turnovers (Mensah's TD-to-INT rate is 28:2; Carr's is 21:1). On the season, Mensah's raw numbers are more impressive as befitting UM's preferred style. The two are tight in advanced stats: Pro Football Focus grades Mensah as its No. 2 full-time starter (Carr is sixth), crediting him with 19 big-time throws (No. 7) against Carr's 17 (T-10). Carr holds the edge in turnover-worthy plays (6 to 8) and average depth of target (10.0 to 7.7).

"Mensah's grip on the front-runner label is tenuous — Miami must avoid a second loss — but he remains a deserving pick," wrote David Kenyon of Bleacher Report in explaining his keeping Mensah his Heisman favorite. He's also got the fan vote over Carr on the official Heisman Hopefuls campaign (they are riding the DeSean Bishop hype train at the moment).

Mensah will get another chance to improve his Heisman cred this weekend when Duke, the team he took to an unlikely ACC championship last season, rolls into town with the ACC's No. 1 pass defense. The Hurricanes finish up the regular season with home dates with 6-3 Virginia Tech and Boston College, which boasts the conference's No. 2 pass defense.

Heisman odds

According to BetMGM, Darian Mensah is tied with Jeremiah Smith as the second-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Mensah's odds haven't changed since before Malachi Toney's injury ended his regular season. Here's a look at the latest odds:

  • CJ Carr (Notre Dame QB): +165

  • Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State WR): +300

  • Devon Dampier (Utah QB): +1500

  • Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State QB): +1500

  • Gunner Stockton (Georgia QB): +2500

  • Keelon Russell (Alabama QB): +3000

  • LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina QB): +5000

  • Nate Sheppard (Duke RB): +6600

Darian Mensah stats

He's no longer on pace to break the FBS record, but Mensah still leads the nation with a .768 completion percentage and a 190.83 efficiency rating (ESPN's QBR, which grades on a 0-100 scale that's easier to grasp, also puts him No. 1 at 89.0). His 2,694 passing yards rank seventh in the nation, and his 28 touchdowns are one behind leader Drew Mestemaker.

Mensah isn't much of a runner, but he showed more of a willingness to run against Notre Dame and has showcased a stellar sense to avoid pressure throughout the season as Miami's line has struggled to keep the pocket clean at times. He has 191 yards on 29 carries with two touchdowns on the season and has fumbled just once.

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