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Notre Dame has seen this Miami-CFP nightmare before. Can it change the ending?

No. 1 Miami and No. 6 Notre Dame share enough history to make this a rich rivalry. But another layer has made their 2026 matchup even more intense.

The Hurricanes' first trip to South Bend since 2016 already figured to carry major College Football Playoff implications. That remains true with two top-10 teams in the US LBM Coaches Poll meeting to open November. But the fallout from last year's playoff race, combined with the release of the first CFP rankings, has raised the stakes even higher.

Win, and either team can take a major step toward securing a playoff spot by taking care of business the rest of the way. Lose, and the path to the 12-team field becomes much more complicated. That's especially true for Notre Dame, and it could revive some painful memories from 2025, when Miami made the CFP, and the Fighting Irish didn't.

Miami-Notre Dame CFP controversy

It started with the teams' Week 1 matchup in 2025, when Miami fended off a late Notre Dame rally for a 27-24 win. The victory became a significant boost to the Hurricanes' resume.

As the season unfolded, Miami lost to Louisville and SMU, while Notre Dame suffered its second loss against another quality opponent, Texas A&M, the following week. When the first CFP rankings were released, Notre Dame was No. 10 and Miami was No. 18.

But the gap steadily narrowed. Miami climbed the rankings, while Notre Dame rose to No. 9 but went no higher. At the end of the regular season, the Fighting Irish controversially dropped back to No. 10, behind Alabama, while Miami climbed to No. 12.

Then No. 11 BYU lost in the Big 12 championship game, seemingly clearing another obstacle from Notre Dame's playoff path. The Cougars dropped, leaving Notre Dame just ahead of Miami.

That order didn't last.

In the final rankings that determined the 12-team field, the selection committee moved Miami ahead to No. 10 and into the final at-large spot, pushing Notre Dame to No. 11 and out of the bracket.

The controversial move sparked outrage from Notre Dame and jubilation from Miami. Ultimately, CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said the decision came down to one thing: the head-to-head result.

"Once we moved Miami ahead of BYU, then we had that side-by-side comparison that everyone had been hungry for with Notre Dame and Miami," Yurachek said. "You look at those two teams on paper, and they're almost equal in their schedule strength, their common opponents, their results against their common opponents. But their one metric we had to fall back on again was the head-to-head."

Miami went on to reach the national championship game, while Notre Dame decided to skip playing a bowl game, a decision that was heavily criticized.

Miami vs Notre Dame could decide CFP fate

One year later, Miami-Notre Dame could once again help determine which team reaches the playoff.

Notre Dame was surprisingly slotted at No. 11 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with the committee pointing to a resume that lacks a marquee win.

"When you look at Notre Dame's schedule and the wins that they have versus the teams that are ahead of them, they don't have that signature win right now. They lost in their only top-25 matchup at BYU. Their next best win is on a neutral site against Wisconsin," Yurachek said.

At No. 1, Miami has considerably more room for error. Notre Dame does not.

Should the Fighting Irish lose to Miami and win out afterward, they would again finish 10-2, with their best victory coming against Wisconsin, North Carolina or SMU. Last season, Notre Dame's three best wins came against Southern California, Pittsburgh and Navy.

That's a dangerous position for the Irish, making a victory over Miami increasingly important if they want to feel secure about their playoff chances.

"They've got a great opportunity in front of them this weekend at home versus Miami to get that signature win that I think they need to move up in the rankings," Yurachek added. "But the committee is very impressed by them. They wouldn't be 11th if we were not."

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