Scotland should beat North Macedonia at Hampden on Friday, and the way to do it is to let Scott McTominay play off the striker instead of pairing him with Billy Gilmour in a deep two. Kick-off is 7.45pm UK time in the Nations League, live on the BBC, and Sebastien Pocognoli still hasn’t won a home game as head coach. Here’s the predicted Scotland lineup and team news.

Scotland predicted XI

Pocognoli has used a back three in all four games so far, and he sounds like he’s staying with it. A 3-4-2-1 is our call, with McTominay and John McGinn behind Oli McBurnie. It’s a prediction, not a team sheet.

The midfield is the live debate. Gilmour and Lewis Ferguson started all four of Pocognoli’s games, but Ryan Christie has won eight in a row with Bournemouth and started six of them, so Christie gets the nod. McTominay has scored five goals in his last six for Napoli, so asking him to sit deep to cover for a wing-back who goes forward isn’t the best use of him.

Ben Gannon-Doak is the likely right wing-back again. He isn’t a natural fit there, but he was the dangerous one in the 2-0 win in Skopje and he’s playing far more minutes for Bournemouth than he was before the last camp. Aaron Hickey of Brentford is the alternative for the harder trip to Switzerland on Monday. Andy Robertson is a certainty on the left.

In goal Angus Gunn should keep his place, though Scott Bain’s form is the story. San Jose Earthquakes have conceded eight goals in their last three games, and Gunn was badly at fault for one of them. Bain has been making the kind of saves that look beyond Gunn, and if Pocognoli wants a change, this is the game to make it.

Scotland team news

Three important players are back from the last camp: McTominay, Kieran Tierney (Celtic) and Che Adams. McTominay will make his first appearance under Pocognoli after missing the opening window with a minor heart procedure. Pocognoli has put him in his “captain group of five”.

Hull’s Oli McBurnie started the first four games and is still waiting for his first Scotland goal in 20 caps, though he has two in his last three in the Premier League. If Pocognoli goes with one up top, Adams or Kieron Bowie, who scored early in Skopje, could take his place.

Why it matters, and the TV channel

Scotland are third in Nations League Group B1 on four points, behind Slovenia and Switzerland, and need at least four from their last two games to have any chance of the promotion play-off. North Macedonia have no points, four defeats from four and no goals scored. Scotland won 2-0 in Skopje in October.

Pocognoli has lost both home games, to Switzerland, when Jack Hendry was sent off early, and Slovenia, when his team was, in BBC Scotland’s words, creatively bereft. He said afterwards: “We were not intense. We were not aggressive – and this is the one non-negotiable topic with me.”

The game is also Robertson’s 102nd cap, which ties Kenny Dalglish’s record. He breaks it in St Gallen on Monday if all goes well. “Friday night’s not about me,” the Tottenham left-back said. “Friday night’s about the greatest player of all time in our country, and for me, that will always be Kenny.”

Kick-off: Friday 13 November, 7.45pm UK time, Hampden Park, Glasgow. How to watch: live on the BBC, streamed on BBC iPlayer, with radio commentary on BBC Sounds.

Our prediction: Scotland 2-0 North Macedonia.