The Orioles had a horrendous terrible roster, which had a lot to do with them falling nearly 20 games off the pace in the AL East yet again.

It would stand to reason that if they actually want to be better in 2027 – and with David Rubenstein leading their private-equity ownership group, they probably don’t – that they would be discarding as much of this group as possible. We have already made the case for how few of their position players are anything close to being assured of being here by Opening Day, and at some point perhaps proven baseball failure Mike Elias will learn from past mistakes and stop bringing the same suspect players back over and over again.

Enough of the failed reunions (and enough of the terrible contracts allowing people like Ryan Helsley and Tyler O’Neill to opt in and stick around longer than they should). With the World Series complete and MLB’s roster transaction period open and the O’s free agent list now clear, we ranked them from most likely to least likely to be back in Birdland (and we would support walking away from all of them all and actually upgrading for a change).

We know Elias, we know how that loser thinks, and we have ranked them UFAs in order of how likely we think they are to return, with a corresponding level of concern about how perilous it would be the 2027 Birds if they do some back (No. of lemons 1-5)

Trevor Rogers (3.5 lemons)

He will get the qualifying offer, he won’t sign it. And the Orioles will monitor his market and see what kind of offer he gets. If they do the right thing and trade for one of these lefties right away it probably becomes a moot point. But we doubt they do the right thing and of all the people on this list, if there is one of their own free agents they would pay market price for, it’s him.

I don’t trust Rogers to be consistent and maintain his confidence over a long-term deal, but he also has at least fared well as a lefty at Camden Yards, otherwise there’d be more lemons attached)

Andrew Kittredge (4 lemons)

At age 37, I’d be done with him. Elias can’t quit him. And he stayed mostly healthy last season and got a chance to serve as a closer and this is exactly the profile of a guy Elias would pay one time too many. Color me officially concerned. Five Lemons; this could happen and it won’t end well.

Chris Bassitt (5 lemons)

This should be 100 percent off the table. Move on. He’s cooked. Probably a bullpen guy for a real team if he wants to keep going … But this isn’t a real team and my god did the PR hacks at MASN go overboard talking up Bassitt’s leadership and intangibles and it just would never stop. Even spending months on end on the IL – like he invariably will again in 2027 – it never stopped.

Would I be shocked if they did something utterly nuts like sign Rogers to a long-term deal and make Bassitt the “other” signing for one year for like half of what he made the year before? Of course not! They basically just did that with Zach Eflin despite a broken back.

Keegan Akin (5 lemons)

Another guy Elias has a ridiculous affinity for. A lefty who can’t get lefties out anymore and has fallen apart for the last two years. But he will work cheap and Elias will be looking for fringy bullpen arms that make him look smart. I don’t think he has as high of odds as some of these other guys – hence where he is on this list - but if they do he is guaranteed disaster.

Zach Eflin (5 lemons)

A back surgery on the heels of losing his stuff and being hurt in 2025 and really basically being bound for the IL from the moment the Rays peddled his contract on this clown, you would think 2025 would have been it. Nope.

I mean the medicals alone should totally discount him. But he’s also clearly an Elias guy.

Ryan Mountcastle (3 lemons)

No way they pay him $7.5M to come back, even as a precursor to trade him. And given all the similar 1B/DH right-handed bats they already have, it just makes zero sense even for Elias to try to jerry-rig some way for him to be in Baltimore next season. If he did, I wouldn’t be as worried about him falling apart as these pitchers. We're talking invite to camp situation at this point I think.

Luis Robert Jr. (10 lemons)

He never wanted to be here, which was obvious when the lineup never came out until first pitch (slight exaggeration) as soon as he got here. It was obvious all along that his chronic hamstring problems were going to flare up and by the middle of the Rockies series any fool could see this was $5M down the drain.

As badly as the O’s need outfielders, even Elias has to know they need multiple dudes you can count on for 500 plate appearances, not a guy guaranteed five IL stints. If they do get cute and try a one-year, prove-it deal it will blow up spectacularly. It would be off the charts skullduggery to try to turn this mistake into any sort of redemption campaign. All the lemons.

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