This NFL season is completely off the rails in the best way possible. Nothing is predictable, all our assumptions have been torn asunder, and somehow we’re sitting at the end of Week 6 with there being very real, sensible discussions over whether Bryce Young is on pace to win the NFL MVP award.

Young has become the league’s most-talked about quarterback (at least in a positive way). He’s absolutely balling out in year four, playing almost mistake-free football, with his only two interceptions being on final plays of the half or drive where they were chalked up as true desperation plays. Meanwhile he’s moving the ball vertically better than almost anyone in the league, and is on pace to finish with 5,267 yards, 37 TDs, and 7 INTs — all while cementing the Panthers as the best team in the NFC South, with everyone else lagging far behind.

That’s just the resume, and here comes the rub: Does this all mean that Bryce Young is worthy of the MVP award if he keeps up this level of play? Now we send this for ruling in FOOTBALL COURT, where James Dator and Mark Schofield make our cases on both sides of this debate. Think of it like a text-based First Take, except there’s less yelling, and 200% more dads who are very concerned about whether our fall grass will become established before the first frost.

I will concede that it’s very early to have this discussion, but I’m hard-pressed to find anyone else who contends for the award this year. We know this has become a purely QB-based award, which is ridiculous — but it’s the state of football.

What Bryce Young is doing for the Panthers is unprecedented. This season Young has had one of the worst offensive lines in football, allowing pressure on 44.5% of dropbacks, and giving him only 1.9 seconds of pocket time on average. These are the standard death knells of a good passing offense, but Young’s unreal processing speed in the pocket is still allowing him to throw players open and generate big plays.

Young has completed 21 passes of 20+ yards this season, which ranks him 7th in the NFL — despite all six guys above him playing one more game, due to the Panthers’ early bye. Averaging over four 20+ yard passes per game is preposterous when there’s not solid blocking in front of you, but it’s still happening every game.

When we talk about “Most Valuable” it should be defined by a player doing something that no other team in the NFL could if you replace that player with another. The Bears, for instance, still managed to win two of their three games without Caleb Williams under center, amassing over 375 yards of offense in those two wins. Case Keenum was able to run the offense well, Tyson Bagent less so — but there’s still an argument to be made that Ben Johnson makes life easy for his quarterbacks with scheme.

With Bryce Young and the Panthers nobody could do what Young is doing. If you stuck any other quarterback in the role that he’s in right now they would be toast, throwing multiple picks a game because they’re under so much duress while trying to move the ball downfield. Instead he’s not just setting franchise records in Carolina, he’s cementing himself among the most elite players of the last two decades.

Do you know what 2011 Aaron Rodgers and 2013 Peyton Manning had in common? They both won the NFL MVP. If we look at Carolina’s remaining schedule, there’s ample room for big games from Bryce Young with two games remaining against the Saints, two against Tampa Bay, the Falcons and the Steelers. It’s entirely possible we see his numbers go up even further, especially as more offensive linemen get healthy for the Panthers — and if that all happens, then he’s a lock to win this award.

At the outset, it speaks volumes that we are even entertaining this conversation. Not because of what it says about the rest of the NFL this season, but what it says about Young himself.

This is a quarterback that was benched at the start of the 2024 season and replaced by Andy Dalton. That we are here, two calendar years later, taking seriously his credentials as a potential MVP says a lot about both Young himself, and the job the coaching staff has done with him, and what the front office has done around him.

That being said …

Becoming part of the conversation is one thing, winning it is yet another. Young has certainly done some impressive things this year (the statistic linked above about quarterbacks throwing for 280 yards and at least one touchdown in each of their first five games certainly puts him in some rarified company) but look who Young has put those numbers up against:

The Chicago Bears
The Atlanta Falcons
The Cleveland Browns
The Detroit Lions
The Philadelphia Eagles

That those teams are a combined 15-14 is just part of the story. Those are also some poor pass defenses. Looking at Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, the Eagles clock in with an ANY/A allowed of 6.6 (11th worst in the NFL), the Lions at 7.0 (9th worst in the NFL) and the Bears clock in with an ANY/A allowed of 7.3 (6th worst in the NFL).

The Lions are allowing a league-worst 297.4 yards per game through the air, with the Falcons not too far behind in fifth, allowing an average of 252.0 yards per game through the air.

Again, this is not to discredit what Young has done this year, but to give it some context. Also, consider this chart, which sets out Expected Points Added per Dropback and Completion Percentage Over Expectation, as created by RBSDM:

Is Young in a very good spot? One would say that being in a cluster with Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud is good company.

But some other quarterbacks on this chart are in a better position, namely Brock Purdy and 2025 MVP Josh Allen.

Keeping with Purdy for a moment, and addressing the very valid point of playing in the face of pressure. As charted by Pro Football Focus this season, Young has been pressured on 44.5% of his dropbacks, which is fourth-most in the NFL. This certainly gives some context to what Young has done, and it does work in his favor. On those plays Young has posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 62.5%, stripping out throwaways and drops, and completed 42.2% of his passes for 510 yards, four touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions.

Now let’s look at what Purdy has done when pressured. While he has not been pressured to the same extent as Young — on only 32.3% of his dropbacks — he completed 53.7 of his passes for 287 yards and a touchdown when pressured, without an interception.

He has also posted an ACP of 68.6% when pressured this year, and the 49ers are currently 5-0 ahead of Monday night’s game against the Washington Commanders.

Is Young in the conversation?

Sure.

But is he the MVP?

Not so fast, my friends.

Let us know in the comments which side you fall on. Is Bryce Young the NFL MVP through Week 6, is it Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, or is there another dark horse worthy of mention?