The possibility of MLB introducing a salary cap in the upcoming lockout makes the next few weeks prior to the expiration of the CBA on Dec. 2 particularly interesting. If teams fear a cap could be coming, how much money will they be willing to spend this winter? Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post ($), the answer could be not much, with one agent predicting lots of "one-year deals ... ones they can get out of [if there are no games]," that agent responded.

With that in mind, how will free agents fare this offseason? An undisputed ace like Tarik Skubal is going to get paid handsomely regardless, and the same can be said for proven sluggers like Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki. But Jazz Chisholm Jr. headlines a list of free agents likely searching for more money than owners would be willing to commit to, with an uncertain future looming.

2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm is the most fascinating free agent in this year's class. He's displayed legitimate superstar upside as recently as 2025, when he hit 31 home runs, stole 31 bases and played good defense at second base. He's also just 28 years old. On the flip side, Chisholm is coming off a pretty brutal contract year, featuring struggles at the plate, characteristic mistakes in the field and on the base paths and some downright strange incidents. (How will teams feel about him enjoying a lollipop in the field in the middle of a game?)

With the current rules in place, it's entirely possible that a team would buy high on his upside, especially with him only being 28 years old, and give him a long-term deal despite his down 2026. With a cap looming, though, can teams really afford the risk of this potentially not being a one-off? Last year's version is not a player you want to be tied to for the next half-decade or so.

RHP Freddy Peralta

The 2026 season was a tale of two halves for Freddy Peralta. In the first half, he performed like one of the worst pitchers in baseball with the New York Mets. After being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays, though, Peralta dominated, even winning the ALCS MVP award. As impressive as he was in Tampa Bay, though, was he really a whole new pitcher? Peralta's strikeout rate took a fairly sizable dip from 22.1 percent with the Mets (and 28.6 percent in his career) to just 19.7 percent with the Rays, and other metrics didn't look great either.

Peralta was certainly more effective with Tampa Bay, and his track record overall is quite good. But with very real concerns when looking at his advanced metrics, how willing will teams be to give him a hefty long-term deal? It'd be easier to do so in a cap-less world, but it'd be awfully hard to commit to a five-year deal to Peralta without knowing how a potential cap system would work.

3B/OF Teruaki Sato

Teruaki Sato just won the NPB Central League Triple Crown, hitting .306 with 39 home runs and 106 RBI. Sure, this was in Japan, but you'd think a 27-year-old who just put up those gaudy numbers would be a lock to receive tons of interest as he transitions to MLB. He very well might, but there are also reasons to believe he won't.

Not only are there defensive questions with Sato, but there are obvious swing-and-miss concerns as well. Sato struck out 164 times in 143 games in 2026, and struck out 163 times in 139 games in 2025. If he had trouble making consistent contact in Japan, how will that fare in MLB against tougher pitching? There's obvious upside, but also risk in his profile. There's a good chance the risks will outweigh the upside with a lockout looming.

RHP Michael King

On the surface, Michael King is one of the safest pitching free agents out there. He has a 3.15 ERA in three seasons since converting to a full-time starter, and he just posted a 3.21 ERA in 32 starts and 185 innings this season. As good as his base statistics have been, though, King had a down year in 2026 under the hood.

His strikeout rate has declined significantly, from 27.7 percent in 2024 to 24.7 percent in 2025 to 21.0 percent in 2026. His 9.2 percent walk rate in 2026 was the highest of his career. Other metrics like his chase rate, whiff rate and barrel rate were all below average as well. Not to mention, King has only been a full-time starter for three years and he missed half of one of those years due to injury. He's obviously a good pitcher, but will teams go above and beyond for someone with declining metrics like this?

1B Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers, on the other hand, has outstanding advanced metrics. He hit the ball as hard as anyone and ran exceptionally high walk and chase rates in 2026. His base statistics were also quite impressive, as he hit 26 home runs, drove in 86 runs and had an impressive .874 OPS. His 143 wRC+ ranked seventh among all qualified hitters, ahead of superstars like Junior Caminero, Elly De La Cruz and Shohei Ohtani — all of whom will receive MVP votes.

Bauers finds his way onto this list because I'm unsure if teams will be willing to bet on 2026 being the future norm for him or a massive outlier. Bauers had never even been a full-time starter, let alone one performing at a star level, until this season. Teams are often cautious when it comes to paying players coming off random breakouts, so how will they respond to Bauers' breakout with a cap looming?