Michael Carrick’s time as Manchester United head coach has run into trouble fast, and the reasons are in the numbers. BBC Sport’s Sami Mokbel and Simon Stone report that United look increasingly likely to sack him, with no final decision made. Here’s why it went wrong. It’s a report until the club says otherwise.

1. A defence that leaks in every game

United have conceded 19 Premier League goals, and only Crystal Palace and Ipswich have let in more. In the three matches since the board decided to give Carrick more time, they shipped 15 across all competitions, and their only clean sheet of the season came against Sabah FK in the Champions League, BBC Sport’s Simon Stone notes. The 4-4 with Villa was thrilling and it was also the pattern: the players came back from two goals down three times in two games, which says something about character and a lot more about the back line.

2. Injuries and a forward line that never fitted

The damage started before the opening game at Hull. Amad Diallo’s ankle injury ruled him out for seven weeks, Benjamin Sesko was still easing back from the shin problem, and Bryan Mbeumo had to play on the right. Matheus Cunha, who likes to drop deep, ended up in the spaces Bruno Fernandes wants. Fernandes scored a hat-trick against Ipswich but has scored once in the league since, a penalty against Villa. Luke Shaw and Sesko were later injured, Marcus Rashford has not played since, and Carrick used five different left-backs. The Sesko injury update has the latest on the striker.

3. Fitness, fine margins and games that got away

BBC Sport says United’s fitness was repeatedly questioned. They were poor against a Manchester City side reduced to 10 men, although Carrick’s complaint about Erling Haaland’s goal, which referees’ chief Howard Webb later admitted should not have stood, was justified. United led Brighton 2-0 inside 10 minutes in the EFL Cup and lost after two goals in four second-half minutes. Against Tottenham they conceded in injury time to a 10-man side. The luck that helped Carrick’s interim spell, in BBC’s reading, turned against him.

4. Public cracks with the hierarchy

After the 2-0 Champions League defeat by Atletico Madrid, Lisandro Martinez criticised the summer recruitment and put the blame on “the technical director”, Jason Wilcox. After the 4-1 defeat by Como, Fernandes criticised Carrick’s tactics. He was dropped for the Bournemouth game, a 3-0 home loss on 25 October, then returned as captain at Chelsea and United lost again. Wilcox and chief executive Omar Berrada are the two expected to recommend a decision to Sir Jim Ratcliffe and the Glazer family, according to BBC Sport.

What Carrick can point to

Carrick has won 15 of 32 games since replacing Ruben Amorim in January, according to BBC Sport, and BBC Sport reports the club feel that fighting back from two goals down three times showed the players remain behind him. Carrick said after the Villa draw that he would not step down. The squad was hit by injuries and the summer business is now being questioned by his own players, which is context, not an excuse for 19 goals conceded.

What happens next

United face Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday 22 November (16:30 UK), their first game after the international break. BBC Sport reports that Eddie Howe and Julian Nagelsmann were sounded out in October, that Antonio Conte is keen, and that Mauricio Pochettino is open to a move, though he signed an extension with the USA in August and his side play Haiti on 14 and 18 November. Five of United’s next seven league opponents after Anfield are in the bottom half, so the table can be fixed quickly by whoever is in the dugout.

FAQ

Is Carrick being sacked? BBC Sport reports that United are expected to sack him, but the club has made no announcement and no final decision has been made.

What is Carrick’s record at Man Utd? He has won 15 of 32 games since January, per BBC Sport, and United have one win in 10 league games this season.

Who could replace Carrick? BBC Sport names Howe, Nagelsmann, Conte and Pochettino as linked; none has been appointed.