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Fantasy Midseason Breakdown: Top Steals & Busts Featuring Brock Purdy and Saquon Barkley

As the 2026 NFL season reaches its midpoint, we break down the players exceeding expectations and those falling short.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) during the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Levi's Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With Week 10 underway, true fantasy values of the NFL’s best are coming into focus. Some players, like Bucky Irving and Matthew Golden, seemingly swooped in from out of nowhere to become fantasy juggernauts. Others like Saquon Barkley, a widely selected early-round pick, have disappointed, much to the chagrin of managers.

As we cross the halfway mark of the 2026 NFL season, we take stock of fantasy’s biggest overachievers and underperformers.

Note: We selected one player per position for each list and only included those that have played in six or more games. Preseason projections are taken from Fantasy on SI's half-PPR cheat-sheet, and current rankings are provided by Fantasy Pros.

STEALS

QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) scores a rushing touchdown during the first quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Levi's Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Brock Purdy is a legitimate top-three MVP candidate entering Week 10. If anyone claimed they saw this coming in August, they’re either a clairvoyant wonder or a liar. Mr. Irrelevant’s touchdown and passing yard totals don’t quite stack up to Josh Allen’s or Joe Burrow’s.

Still, he does rank second in the NFL in completion percentage among qualified QBs, third in average yards per completion, and has a nice 17-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His efficiency and consistent high-level play net him 22 fantasy points per game, which is good for third at his position.

Current Ranking: QB3 | Preseason Projection: QB14

RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For those patient enough to stick with Bucky Irving through the first four weeks of the season (10.2 fantasy points per contest), they were handsomely rewarded.

In Weeks 5 through 9, he averaged 21.5 fantasy points, which is second among running backs to only Jahmyr Gibbs (21.8). He also led all backs in total points scored during that span (107.4), and the margin between first and second isn’t close.

Irving is providing tremendous production for a position often lacking it—a boon for fantasy managers employing his service.

Current Ranking: RB5 | Preseason Projection: RB19

WR Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Matthew Golden (0) makes a touchdown catch against the New England Patriots in the first half at Gillette Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Through nine games, Golden has nearly doubled his output from his entire rookie season: 783 receiving yards (fourth in the league), 53 receptions (ninth), 87 yards per game (fourth).

For Green Bay, he’s become the perfect foil for Christian Watson—the much more highly touted fantasy option of the two coming into 2026—as they stretch the field both horizontally and vertically; Golden with his elite speed and creation in short-to-intermediate situations and Watson with his vertical route-running and knack for catching contested passes.

Golden’s 137.4 fantasy points ranks fifth among wideouts, which is more than Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. 

Current Ranking: WR5 | Preseason Projection: WR47

TE Isaiah Likely, New York Giants

New York Giants tight end Isaiah Likely (9) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Only one tight end in the National Football League has amassed 20+ points in three games this season: Isaiah Likely.

A favorite of Coach John Harbaugh, Likely’s consistent production is particularly impressive when you consider that he has played with three different quarterbacks in 2026. His 13.2 fantasy points per contest and 105.8 overall put him third at the tight end position.

Current Ranking: TE3 | Preseason Projection: TE17

BUSTS

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is pressured while making a throw by Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s been a year from H-E-double hockey sticks for Herbert and the Chargers, who are looking for their first win. For Herbert, many predicted—including us—that he would finish the campaign as the 12th-ranked fantasy quarterback, or at the very least, a reliable QB1 heading into each week. However, he currently sits at 26th, slightly ahead of Daniel Jones.

It feels like the only way is up for the 28-year-old, who’s thrown nearly double the amount of interceptions as he has touchdowns, but for managers that selected him in their drafts, they likely jumped ship long ago.

Current Ranking: QB26 | Preseason Projection: QB12

RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs for a touchdown against the New York Giants during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Speaking of pre-season contenders falling short of expectations, the Eagles are dead last in a weak NFC East at 2-7. Their losing record isn’t Saquon Barkley’s fault, but his fantasy prowess has taken a massive hit, due in large part to the major injuries surrounding him.

The former MVP has not yet eclipsed 15 points in a game and has spent much of the 2026 campaign living in the single digits.

Current Ranking: RB35 | Preseason Projection: RB12

WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) is tackled by Detroit Lions defensive end Derrick Moore (8) during the second quarter at Ford Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jefferson tallied 27.2 fantasy points in the Vikings’ opener against Green Bay, but has averaged just 7.5 per contest in the weeks since. It’s been a revolving door at quarterback for the Vikes, which could explain the inconsistency. Still, the wideout ranks within the top-10 in the league in target share (28.7%), meaning coach Kevin O’Connell is making a concerted effort to get him the ball.

The trend should continue with the team’s acquisition of Kirk Cousins, the fifth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2026 (a significant upgrade from the 29th-ranked Kyler Murray), who, as my colleague Skyler Carlin pointed out, helped propel Jefferson to a career-high 17.9 fantasy points per game in 2022.

Current Ranking: WR24 | Preseason Projection: WR8

TE Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears tight end Colston Loveland (84) runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Loveland entered the 2026 campaign as the sixth-ranked tight end in fantasy, but through the first five weeks, he struggled mightily to produce. He averaged 3.5 points, which included a 0.0 in Week 1, followed by 0.8 in Week 2. He also failed to score a touchdown over that span.

Since then, though, he’s pulled a 180, finding the endzone twice, receiving for 60 or more yards in three out of his last four contests, and amassing 47.3 total fantasy points (third-most for tight ends). Loveland appears to be headed in the right direction, but given his preseason expectations and overall output so far, he has to be considered a bust. 

Current Ranking: TE16 | Preseason Projection: TE6

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