Now in his 32nd season, Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has earned a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament four times in his career, but it has only happened once since 2001 and not at all since 2012. Could this be the year that changes?

After beating Duke in the Champions Classic on Tuesday night, the Spartans are on a strong early trajectory. With star point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leading the way, Michigan State could be gearing up for a special season.

Purdue and Michigan will be struggling to meet their recent standards this season, opening the door for Michigan State to dominate the Big Ten as it did in the 2024-25 season. The Spartans earned a No. 2 seed that season after going 17-3 in the league. However, they didn't have a nonconference victory nearly as valuable as their 2026-27 win over Duke will be.

Dismantling of Duke by Michigan State shows it might be time to recalibrate expectations for Blue Devils

Isaac Trotter

The Blue Devils have slipped to No. 2 seed in our first in-season Bracketology update. Duke is still beloved by predictive metrics and is in line for another great season, but the Michigan State loss showed that it's a work in progress.

With the 2026-27 season off and rolling, here is the full 76-team Bracketology breakdown entering action Friday.

2027 Bracketology

Last Four In

First Four Out

Purdue plummets, UCLA rises

UCLA debuted as a No. 9 seed, which was low relative to its standing in preseason metrics. Well, the Bruins proved they deserve to be much higher — for now anyway — when they beat Arizona 84-75 on the season's first night. After that win and two subsequent buy-game wins, the 3-0 Bruins are up to a No. 4 seed in our update. The remainder of UCLA's nonconference schedule is relatively light, but the Arizona win should stand the test of time.

Why isn't UCLA ahead of Arizona? Well, the Wildcats still rank ahead of UCLA in predictive metrics and have huge opportunities against Auburn and UConn coming over the next week. But the Wildcats did drop from a No. 1 seed to a No. 2 seed in this projection. We'll learn more about Tommy Lloyd's club very soon.

While UCLA stands out as a big riser from the Big Ten, Purdue stands out for the opposite reason. After debuting in the preseason as a No. 5 seed, the Boilermakers started 1-2 with losses to Gonzaga and Valparaiso. Purdue is now one of the "Last Four in" and slotted as a No. 12 seed being sent to the "Opening Round." Why didn't they fall out entirely? They are still a top-40 team in predictive metrics, suggesting that a rebound is likely in the cards.

Rematch rules

Amid conference consolidation and tournament expansion, the NCAA has again relaxed rules around rematches. Official NCAA guidance no longer includes a mandate to avoid nonconference rematches in the second round.

While the NCAA will seek to avoid nonconference rematches in the Opening Round and first round, those rules can be relaxed for conferences with more than nine teams in the field. They can also be relaxed if a league has multiple teams among the final 12 at-large teams playing in the Opening Round.

This is how we ended up with the possibility of a first-round game between Tennessee and Florida State. The Volunteers and Seminoles play on Dec. 1, meaning the committee will seek to avoid a potential first-round matchup between them. But the SEC has 13 teams in this projection, and the ACC has two teams playing in the Opening Round.

To avoid violating other bracketing principles, it was easier just to roll with a potential Tennessee/FSU rematch. As for conference rematches, they are allowed to occur as early as the second round between teams that played only once before the NCAA Tournament. But even that can be relaxed for leagues with nine or more teams in the bracket, which the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC each have in this projection. 

Full conference breakdown

Here is the full rundown of multi-bid leagues from the latest 76-team CBS Sports Bracketology.

SEC (13): Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Missouri
Big Ten (12): Michigan St., Illinois, UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, USC, Purdue, Iowa, Indiana
Big 12 (9): Houston, Kansas, Arizona, Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU, Baylor, Cincinnati, West Virginia
ACC (8): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State
Big East (5): UConn, St. John's, Villanova, Marquette, Xavier
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU
Pac-12 (2): Gonzaga, Utah State