Jeremiah Smith is the Heisman Trophy favorite at every sportsbook entering Week 9 thanks to a sensational start to the season that saw him climb to the top of most all-time Big Ten receiving lists. 

Smith has 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games this season, only trailing Oregon State freshman sensation Jesse Legree in yards and touchdowns nationally, and is carrying the Ohio State passing offense. Smith accounts for 43.5% of the Buckeyes' receiving yards and 54.5% of their receiving touchdowns this season, despite being the central focus of every Ohio State opponent's game plan. 

With most of the top quarterbacks around the country struggling in a chaotic 2026 season, Smith has asserted himself as the nation's best player through the midpoint of the schedule. The challenge for Smith will be holding onto that position as the Heisman favorite to collect college football's most prestigious trophy in December. 

The fast-charging Miami duo of Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney -- who face their own challenge in splitting votes as teammates -- present one problem for Smith's pursuit of the Heisman, but the biggest determining factor in whether Smith wins the award will be how Ohio State's sudden quarterback uncertainty impacts his production. 

Julian Sayin was not shy about targeting Smith early and often, regardless of the coverage the star receiver faced, but Sayin may be done for the season after suffering an injury late against Indiana. Ryan Day has yet to announce whether freshman Luke Fahey or sophomore Tavien St. Clair will get the starting nod against USC -- or whether both quarterbacks will play -- but in either case they'll be thrown into the fire as young, unproven quarterbacks tasked with keeping Ohio State as a national title contender. 

Whether it's Fahey, St. Clair or a combination of the two, Smith will need to maintain his incredible pace with a new quarterback throwing him the ball. The question is whether Ohio State's QB situation will help or hurt Smith's Heisman case over the final five games, and there are reasonable arguments on both sides. 

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Brandon Marcello

How Smith can lose the Heisman

There are two schools of thought for how this will impact Smith, and we'll start with the negative. A new quarterback will not have the same rhythm with Smith as Sayin, who has been throwing Smith the ball for two years and went through an entire offseason getting all of the first-team reps as the unquestioned starter. 

The connection between Sayin and Smith was obvious from the jump to start this season, and Sayin had complete and total trust and confidence in Smith -- even in situations where the coverage was there. A young quarterback will likely be tasked with steering the ship and managing the offense, especially considering Ohio State has an elite defense once again. 

A more conservative offensive approach from Ryan Day could mean fewer targets for Smith, especially down the field, and if he's more limited while Miami's star duo continue to tear it up for the Hurricanes, Smith could get passed over. 

There's also the possibility of even more instability if Ohio State goes with a two-quarterback system, which makes it even tougher for Smith to establish a rhythm with either. If Fahey and St. Clair are splitting series, that only increases the degree of difficulty for Smith, as he has to adjust to the timing of two different quarterbacks. 

The concern for Smith is that his best performances could end up being four of the first five games of the season. While the Heisman is a full-season award, the human element in voting tends to place more weight on what a player does late in the season. Smith's early potential Heisman moment, 8 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown at Texas, was ruined by an Ohio State collapse to lose that game as they turtled up offensively. 

There aren't any more games against top-10 opponents on the schedule (Northwestern at No. 20 is the only ranked opponent currently), and with the quarterback uncertainty, Smith might miss out on that late-season game that cements his status as this year's Heisman. 

How Smith can win the Heisman

There is an optimistic view for Smith and those holding a Heisman ticket with his name on it. If he continues to produce at a high level, it's going to appear even more impressive after Ohio State went to a backup.

Smith won't have to average 140 yards per game to impress voters, but if he's still hanging around 100 yards and a touchdown on average each game with Fahey or St. Clair, that might be enough. It was already clear that the message in the Ohio State quarterback room was "find No. 4 and throw it to him" with Sayin, and there's an argument to be made that could be hammered home even further with a young quarterback. 

There's no player in the country you'd rather have as a target for an unproven quarterback, and if the Buckeyes are going to win a title, they have to establish some kind of passing threat. Telling a young QB to trust that Smith will bail them out even in tight coverage wouldn't be the worst plan in the world, and Smith is going to make them look good more often than not. 

While Ohio State's closing schedule is no longer as daunting as it once looked a few months ago, it still presents opportunities for major production if the Buckeyes are willing to open it up.

USC's defense remains porous, and Smith should have plenty of opportunities to produce against the Trojans' secondary, even with a QB making his first career start on the road. Oregon is a shell of what it was supposed to be, and while the Ducks have been solid on defense, it feels like a matter of time before the dam breaks if the offense remains inept. 

Northwestern has been one of college football's biggest surprises this year, but they get the job done with offensive creativity, and Smith will be a matchup nightmare for the Wildcats on the perimeter. Nebraska is trying to keep the wheels from falling off before the Huskers host the Buckeyes in a few weeks, while the Michigan game always seems to be a defensive struggle. 

There will be ample opportunity for Smith to author his Heisman moment, and even though he won't get a chance to do so against a fellow top-10 team (and unfortunately lost his best effort against a top opponent with Ohio State's collapse at Texas), his top competitors only have one chance to do so themselves. 

This year's competition might work out in Smith's favor as well. Toney and Mensah will likely split some votes, and their only chance to author a true Heisman moment that registers on a national scale will be their game on Nov. 7 against Notre Dame. If the Irish win that game or Miami's offense sputters at all for the first time this season, Smith's path will be even clearer to lifting the Heisman in December. 

It shouldn't take long to find out whether Smith's Heisman candidacy will take a major hit or not. Saturday's game against USC is about as friendly as Ohio State could ask for in terms of the defense they will face for a young quarterback's debut. 

If they aren't willing to throw the ball against the Trojans, Smith is going to be in real trouble. However, a big game will boost his credentials and solidify his position as the favorite.