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Who will win MVP? Cy Young? Picks, analysis for 2026 MLB awards week
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler and Yordan Alvarez are among the favorites to take home awards this week. ESPN

The baseball offseason has felt pretty normal so far if you can put the overhanging labor negotiations out of your mind. Some of that normalcy comes from the gradual easing into the initial phases of the hot stove season -- contract options, roster maneuvering, free agency filing -- that point toward next season.

That's administrative stuff, though, and not as fun as the parade in Milwaukee -- or this week, when MLB hands out its major awards in what closes the books on the 2026 season.

This year's awards week adds a new honor being handed out by the Baseball Writers' Association of America: the Reliever of the Year Award, which recognizes the top bullpen maestro from each league. Here's how this week's schedule lays out:

Wednesday: Cy Young and Reliever of the Year (7 p.m. ET, MLB Network)
Thursday: MVP (7 p.m. ET, MLB Network)

MLB Network will also air the MLB awards given out during a live ceremony in Las Vegas at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Honors presented then include the Hank Aaron Award, Comeback Player of the Year, Mariano Rivera & Trevor Hoffman Relievers of the Year, Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award and selections for the All-MLB first and second teams.

Finalists for the major awards have already been announced. So let's see how things look before the hardware is handed out. Who might win? Who should win?

Jump to an award:

MVP | CY Young | Reliever of the Year
Rookie of the Year | Manager of the Year

Manager of the Year

American League

Winner: Will Venable, Chicago White Sox

Final tally: Venable 111 (15 first-place votes), Kevin Cash 98 (12), Chad Tracy 47 (3), Stephen Vogt 9, Aaron Boone 4, Joe Espada 1.

Doolittle's pick: Venable

Takeaway: This is an award I'd never want to vote on. Sure, I have a system that rates managers, or rather, as I try to be transparent about, a system that seeks to measure factors that tend to correlate with Manager of the Year voting. Separately, I do think you can get a good feel for how a manager is impacting a specific team if you're around it a lot. But I'm able to reach that criteria with only a handful of managers in a given year. There is so much beyond data you need to know before you can really judge how a manager is doing.

I was exposed to Venable often this year, tracing back to spring training. It's always impossible to know how your judgment is impacted by results. A team going well invariably leaves a strong impression. One that isn't does not. That's natural.

With Venable, despite a couple of X's and O's mistakes, his connection to what was going on with a shockingly good White Sox team was apparent every step along the way. For a team that reached the playoffs, the White Sox turned over key roster spots consistently through the season, as an emerging ballclub should if it has the talent base to make it work. Through it all, the team and the roster always seemed like a cohesive continuation of what had already occurred.

Then came early August, roughly speaking, when it became apparent that Chicago did not have enough resources to run a starting rotation in a typical manner through the rest of the season. The acquisition of Luis Castillo not only did not fix that problem, it made it worse. The White Sox, with Venable leading the way, went into improv mode, appropriate for the city that gave the world Second City. Craft a pitching plan today and worry about tomorrow when it arrives. Venable and his collaborators made it work.

This year's White Sox had no business coming within one win of an ALCS appearance. It was too much, too soon. Yet that's exactly what happened. My metrics like Cash better, and he came close in the balloting. I love Cash as one of the two best managers in the game along with Pat Murphy. But anyone guiding a team that provided as much historical shock as did this year's White Sox demands recognition. Venable more than deserves this honor.

National League

Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers

Final tally: Murphy 124 (20 first-place votes), Walt Weiss 86 (7), Don Mattingly 25 (1), Craig Stammen 24 (2), Dave Roberts 7, Craig Counsell 3, Don Kelly 1.

Doolittle's pick: Murphy

Takeaway: It almost feels like Craig Counsell has become a villain in Murphy's story, which isn't at all fair. Yes, Counsell bolted, leaving his hometown team for a record contract with that club's chief rival. But come on, Counsell just became manager of the Cubs. It's not like he tied Bernie Brewer to some train tracks.

Still, for Wisconsinites who feed off schadenfreude, this is a sweet time, even better than a stop at Mars Cheese Castle just off I-94 south of Milwaukee. The manager in which you believed betrayed you for the one team you wouldn't want him to go to. His replacement, his mentor, the amiable but overlooked bench coach who is like a contemporary embodiment of Red Blow -- the bench coach for Pop Fisher in "The Natural" -- takes over. And in the first three seasons after that happens, he is named NL Manager of the Year. Also, lest we forget, in the third of those years, this grizzled coach gifts you the first World Series in franchise history.

The Brewers' title did not factor into the voting, but everything Pat Murphy did to put Milwaukee in position to achieve that title was already in place when the ballots were cast. Not the least of which was the 103 wins, a franchise record and far above where preseason forecasts had predicted the Brewers to be.

My metrics have loved Murphy all through his tenure, though it has to be acknowledged that part of the perception around the Brewers overachieving stems from the fact that they are chronically underrated. Still, come on. Has any team in recent times been more explained or defined by the personality of its manager and the standards that he demands his club meet?

One thing I loved about this season's great World Series matchup is that it was a clash between two managers who really mattered. And Murphy and Cash are very, very different in the way they go about it. That in itself says something positive about where the game of baseball is given this point in time and a testament to how managers, as much as ever, really matter.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Winner: Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers

Final tally: McGonigle 204 (28 first-place votes), Parker Messick 122 (2), Payton Tolle 54, Munetaka Murakami 39, Carter Jensen 31, Chase DeLauter 23, Kazuma Okamoto 17, Tristan Peters 12, Sam Antonacci 2, Travis Bazzana 2, Walbert Urena 2, Dylan Beavers 1, Henry Bolte 1

Doolittle's pick: McGonigle

Takeaway: The cases for McGonigle and Guardians starter Messick were close by the numbers, so this seems to have come down to comparing an every-day player versus a starting pitcher. This result makes me wish we had separate rookie awards for hitters and pitchers, but I guess we already have plenty of awards.

McGonigle was a great pick, though, and I'm a little relieved that he didn't suffer in the voting because of his lack of big-time power numbers -- not that 18 homers for a 21-year-old middle infielder is pedestrian. But he added value in so many ways. According to Baseball Reference, McGonigle's final tally of 7.1 bWAR is the sixth best ever among AL position players.

That kind of performance demands recognition. McGonigle is the first Tiger to win Rookie of the Year since Michael Fulmer in 2016. As for Messick, his week isn't over: He's also a Cy Young finalist.

National League

Winner: Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds

Final tally: Stewart 170 (20 first-place votes), Carson Benge 107 (7), JJ Wetherholt 99 (3), Nolan McLean 70, TJ Rumfield 49, Logan Henderson 10, Bryce Eldridge 2, Didier Fuentes 2, A.J. Ewing 1.

Doolittle's pick: Wetherholt

Takeaway: I thought we were past this kind of voting, which I hate to write because I don't like to rain on anybody's awards parade. Stewart is a fun player and a legit run producer, finishing with 32 homers and 112 RBIs. To be clear, Stewart is not just strictly an RBI compiler -- but this is a case where his difference in advanced metrics was just too much to overcome. Or at least it should have been.

Stewart seemed to be aware of this debate as he kind of made his own case during the pre-announcement interview, but it wasn't necessary. Stewart is the NL Rookie of the Year, and good for him. The last Red to win was Jonathan India in 2021.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Finalists:

What to know: Here are the OPS+ figures for the qualifying hitters who ranked second through sixth in the AL: 153, 149, 148, 146 and 144. No. 1? That would be Alvarez ... at 190. He dominated the leaderboards for AL hitters at a Wilt Chamberlain-like level, sweeping all the slash categories and falling one homer and seven RBIs shy of a Triple Crown.

Alvarez made that production count, pacing AL hitters in win probability added (6.9), with a figure that was 68% better than the second-place finisher, Pete Alonso. At 81-81, Alvarez's Astros barely eked out a postseason spot. Without him, they would have been lottery-bound for sure.

Witt should remain a fixture in the finalist group for years to come. He was an easy pick once again this season even though, by his stratospheric standards, it wasn't his best year. He's just so good at so many things that the secondary parts of his game add elite value even when his batting line is more good than great.

AXE did not see Caminero as the third finalist, though it's hard to fault the voters for picking him. From a metrics standpoint, at least the ones that feed AXE, the issue was situational hitting. Caminero ranked fourth in the AL in batting runs above average, but just 12th in the win probability added by all that production.

Doolittle's pick: Alvarez

National League

Finalists:

What to know: AXE and the BBWAA were in lockstep when it came to identifying the finalists. And, really, the drama in this race was more or less over by the time we hit Labor Day. Crow-Armstrong just kept getting better and better while Ohtani struggled with injuries so nagging that he had little impact in October.

The trajectory of the race shows us how much of a tease it was for a few weeks there. After Ohtani built a huge and predictable lead early in the season, Crow-Armstrong took off in June (he posted a 1.249 OPS for the month) and just kept going. By the beginning of August, he had overtaken Ohtani in AXE, and with the Dodgers headed to Wrigley Field on Aug. 3, it felt like we were watching an epic head-to-head race that would be one for the history books.

It was, but only for Crow-Armstrong, who posted one of the best two-way seasons in baseball history. Well, make that three-way. In the subcategories of bWAR, PCA led the NL in both batting runs above average (44) and baserunning runs (9), and ranked third in fielding runs (16). That's how you end up with 9.8 bWAR -- the fourth-best total by a Cubs hitter in the franchise's 151-year history.

Ohtani's greatness is hardly diminished by his 2026 season. Look where he is on this leaderboard despite playing injured for much of the second half of the season. As for the often-overlooked Turang, he'll likely have to content himself with the championship ring he'll get when next season begins. It's a trade-off he'll be happy to make.

Doolittle's pick: Crow-Armstrong

Cy Young

American League

Finalists:

What to know: Schlittler has been amazingly consistent during his young big league career, and when you're as good as he is, that's a very good thing. Over 51 career starts, including the postseason, Schlittler has a 2.16 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and an average game score of 61.5.

It's hard to believe that, entering the season, we were wondering whether his late-season run as a rookie in 2025 was for real. It was, and Schlittler is one of the best pitchers in the game. His 215 ERA+ was the best by a qualifying Yankees pitcher in franchise history. Better than Ron Guidry, circa 1978. Better than Lefty Gomez, Whitey Ford ... Schlittler tops them all.

When you look at the progression of the AXE leaderboard, it was pretty much a wire-to-wire win for Schlittler, and I suspect he'll be a near-unanimous choice when the AL Cy Young is announced. But it wasn't a runaway. Messick, as a rookie, was almost as good as Schlittler and just as consistent, and Cease came on strong during the second half.

The voters got it right when landing on a top three, and they'll get it right when Schlittler joins Bob Turley, Ford, Sparky Lyle, Guidry, Roger Clemens and Gerrit Cole as the Yankees pitchers who have won a Cy Young.

Doolittle's pick: Schlittler

National League

Finalists:

What to know: This could be an interesting vote, though I strongly suspect Misiorowski will win handily. Sanchez has ranked slightly ahead of Misiorowski in AXE all season, largely because of an overwhelming edge in bWAR (8.1 to 6.5) that I don't fully buy into. AXE seeks to balance such measures against each other, but that much of an advantage in one of the two most important categories is hard to overcome. I dug into this race in the final Awards Watch of the regular season.

Ultimately, each of the top six pitchers listed on the AXE leaderboard in this category had an overwhelming season. It was a really good campaign for star-level pitching performances in the Senior Circuit. I favor Misiorowski not just for his dominance -- his league-leading 252 strikeouts and 13 whiffs per nine innings -- but for his consistency. The measure I track related to this is game-score record -- how often a starting pitcher posted a higher game score than the opposing starter on a game-by-game basis. Misiorowski went 25-5 in his 30 starts, easily the best record in the majors.

See that? I made Misiorowski's case and didn't even mention his velocity once.

Doolittle's pick: Misiorowski

Reliever of the Year

American League

Finalists:

What to know: I am a little dubious about the creation of this subcategory of pitching awards, which debuts this season, mostly because the roles of hurlers and the labels that apply to them evolve so much over time, now more than ever. Just to cite one example, here are some numbers for one lights-out reliever this season:

IP: 35 ⅓
W-L: 4-0
ERA: 1.53
K/BB: 36/9

The pitcher in question is Chicago White Sox righty Sean Burke, who compiled these numbers over six relief appearances in the regular season and the playoffs. That average of nearly six innings per relief appearance gives us some crucial context -- these were all bulk relief appearances made in games started by an opener. These numbers weren't compiled by a reliever, per se, but they don't belong in the starter's bucket, either.

All we know for sure these days is that pitchers are pitchers. We have to work hard to measure them in the context in which they are used. More and more, the old starter/reliever distinction is showing wear and tear. I don't think this trend will end any time soon, and I'd hate to see this award become something akin to a regurgitated saves leaderboard, especially because the save is a weak stat to begin with.

Doolittle's pick: I cast a vote for this award, so I'm going to hold off on revealing my pick here. The full voting results will be posted here after the winners are announced. I also blanked out my pick for the Mariano Rivera Award below, because it would naturally be the same pick. I will say that my choices for any award don't necessarily match the AXE leaderboard precisely.

National League

Finalists:

What to know: Miller is the game's most dominant pitcher, and he demonstrated that in every significant measure by which I evaluate relievers. He recorded 129 strikeouts in just 70 innings and did so with pinpoint command, leading all of baseball with a K-BB% of 37.9% -- 6.6 percentage points higher than Misiorowski's, just to draw one comparison. He led all pitchers in win probability added. And he was consistent, earning a 54-12 record in terms of landing above average in WPA on a game-by-game basis, a plus-42 finish that led the majors.

This is a vote that should not be close.

Doolittle's pick: Miller

Other awards

Just a run-through of my picks for other notable honors, leaving aside the Mariano Rivera Award, since I voted in this category, and the Comeback Player of the Year, which is tough to attack analytically.

Executive of the Year: Chris Antonetti, Cleveland Guardians

There are some great candidates for this award, including Milwaukee's Matt Arnold, who took the honor the last two years when his team didn't win the title. It's also really hard to pick against the miraculous turnaround of the White Sox pulled off by Chris Getz, or the usual most-from-the-least wizardry of Tampa Bay's Erik Neander.

I'm going with Antonetti, who won the award in 2022. My organizational rating metric had Cleveland on top by season's end despite the massive improvement by Chicago, which finished second. The Guardians topped the charts in limiting injury impact and spending efficiency, and finished second, just ahead of the White Sox, in rookie WAR. The race was still close, but Antonetti gets it because of a successful trade deadline that was a big reason the Guardians lasted until the division series.

AL Hank Aaron Award: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

NL Hank Aaron Award: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

Trevor Hoffman Award: Mason Miller, San Diego Padres

Edgar Martinez Award: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Gold Gloves: The winners have been announced and can be found here. My quibbles:

• AL shortstop: Taylor Walls had a plus-21 DRS (defensive runs saved, per Baseball Info Solutions) but a minus-2 FRV (fielding run value, per Statcast), which is the kind of disparity that makes public-facing defensive metrics so hard to trust. Walls is a defensive wizard who played every day for a World Series team even though he can't hit. That tells you how good his defense is. Nevertheless, Bobby Witt Jr. had the best defensive season at the position and is one of the game's most dynamic and impactful defensive players. He should have won.

• AL second base: The same kind of disparity regarding Walls applies to Cole Young (plus-16 DRS, minus-4 FRV). It's tough, because Young had good prospect grades as a defender, with suggestions that he can hold down the shortstop position. Still, I think Chase Meidroth or Michael Massey would have been better picks.

My All-MLB team:

1B: Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles
2B: Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
3B: Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
C: Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks
OF: Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners
OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
OF: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
DH: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
LHP: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
RHP: Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
RP: Mason Miller, San Diego Padres

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