As the expiration of MLB's current collective bargaining agreement approaches, it's worth taking a look back at what unfolded five years ago as potentially instructive for what to expect leading up to a lockout instituted by MLB's team owners that would freeze all major-league transactions leaguewide. 

One clear trend in 2021 was an uncommon rush of activity in free agency in the handful of days leading up to the lockout, with a bevy of big names signing massive contracts before moves ceased for months until a new CBA was eventually agreed upon on March 10. But inspect the transaction logs from that November five years ago, and another pattern emerges.

"If you just look back, there weren't a large number of trades," Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas earlier this week. 

"There were signings — there was a lot of money spent early — but not a lot of trades."

Indeed, there was a distinct lack of trade activity mirroring the frenzy of free-agent deals that dramatically altered rosters across the league before the lockout went into effect in 2021. The biggest blockbuster trades of that offseason were not executed until the lockout was lifted in March.

Atkins and the Blue Jays embodied this dynamic. Toronto was responsible for one of the largest free-agent contracts given out during the mad dash before the CBA expired, landing right-hander Kevin Gausman with a five-year, $110 million deal. And Gausman's wasn't even among the top five most lucrative deals agreed to leading up to the lockout. There were Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million) and Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million) with the Texas Rangers, Javier Báez (six years, $140 million) with the Detroit Tigers, Max Scherzer (three years, $130 million) with the New York Mets and Robbie Ray (five years, $115 million) with the Seattle Mariners. 

Gausman represented a bold first strike for the Blue Jays. But their next biggest move that offseason didn't happen until March: The acquisition of Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman from the Athletics in exchange for four prospects. This was the finale of a trio of significant trades executed by the A’s in the week after the lockout ended, following deals that sent right-hander Chris Bassitt to the Mets and first baseman Matt Olson to the Braves. Cincinnati was busy in similar fashion once the moves resumed in March, trading veteran starter Sonny Gray to the Minnesota Twins and sluggers Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to the Mariners. 

The Reds and Athletics' selloff swaps headlined a series of trades leading up to the delayed Opening Day in 2022 that also featured the Twins sending Mitch Garver to the Rangers and Josh Donaldson to the New York Yankees. As for deals completed before the lockout, there were far fewer that stood out. The Mariners acquired Adam Frazier from the San Diego Padres. The Miami Marlins landed catcher Jacob Stallings from Pittsburgh. The Boston Red Sox sent Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers mere minutes before the CBA expired. As it turned out, the most consequential deal executed that month was one that hardly registered as a blockbuster at the time: the Tampa Bay Rays sending right-hander Tobias Myers to Cleveland in exchange for an 18-year-old minor-league infielder named Junior Caminero. 

So, that was then. What about now?

The GM meetings in Las Vegas offered a chance for executives from all 30 teams to lay the groundwork for their offseason plans, whether it be collaborating on trade possibilities with each other or meeting with representatives of the top free agents. The unofficial deadline created by the expected lockout on Dec. 1 loomed over the meetings, though front-office officials varied in their acknowledgement of how much it was affecting discussions. 

"I would say things have progressed as they normally would progress," Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. 

"We've had a chance to visit all the clubs. That's normal at this time of year. We've had a chance to talk to some of the free-agent players. That's normal. What I don't know is how it's going to progress from here."

While there's some thought around the industry that the upcoming transaction freeze could expedite some transactional activity, there's also some worry that certain clubs may be cautious to overhaul their rosters or make certain financial commitments without knowing the structure of the next CBA, which MLB is pushing to include a salary cap. Dombrowski downplayed that possibility based on his early offseason interactions. 

"When I talk to other clubs, and I think everybody's progressing … I don't sense urgency, [but] I also don't have anybody saying, 'Oh, I want to wait to see what happens.'"

It's worth noting that similar concerns existed at this past July's trade deadline. There was speculation that clubs may be hesitant to pay big prices to acquire players under contract through 2027 based on the possibility that a prolonged work stoppage could result in missed games and thus fewer games for such trade targets to contribute. But several such players were ultimately traded, including Adley Rutschman, Luis García Jr., Lars Nootbaar, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Wells and Jo Adell. And conversations with executives at the GM meetings indicate such concerns were always overblown, and continue to be less of a focus in current trade talks when clubs are considering players under contract for only 2027. 

Craig Breslow was not leading the Red Sox five years ago — he was in the Chicago Cubs’ front office as an assistant general manager at the time — but since taking the helm in Boston, he has been notably active on the trade market. That has included some gigantic deals done during the winter for Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras, but also some dramatic in-season maneuvers such as off-loading Rafael Devers to San Francisco or paying a huge prospect price to acquire Rutschman from the Orioles.

In Las Vegas, Breslow spoke of the value of the GM Meetings — and hinted how this edition could be different from years past based on the circumstances surrounding the CBA.

"I think there's something maybe symbolic about everybody kind of getting together under the same roof and kind of jump-starting the off-season," Breslow said. "I think this year, the frequency of communication, the cadence has been accelerated a bit." 

"But as we sit here, there haven't really been these major trades just yet."

Once the baseball world dispersed from the desert, it was Breslow who delivered the first major move of the month: a reported four-year deal with first baseman Jake Bauers coming off a brilliant breakout campaign with the World Series champion Brewers. While this was a signing and not a substantial swap that Breslow has become known for making, it's the kind of deal that could spark such activity in the coming weeks. 

For the Red Sox in particular, the addition of Bauers only further crowds a position player depth chart that features several left-handed hitters who don't fit particularly well on the roster in Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas. All three have been featured heavily in trade rumors in recent years, but Bauers' addition may finally be the move that forces Breslow to deal away at least one of them. Such moves could be possible post-lockout, of course, but by striking early in free agency, the Red Sox now have a few weeks to work with if they want to swing a major trade sooner as they have so often done under Breslow. 

Meanwhile in Milwaukee, the defending champs now have a huge part of their lineup to replace, and could look to the trade market to address it. While the Brewers are not expected to make star catcher William Contreras available entering the final year of his contract, closer Trevor Megill — also slated to hit free agency after next season — is a different story. And with the relief market starting to move with the signings of Evan Phillips and Emilio Pagán, Megill's name could surface as a prime target for teams who miss out on their bullpen targets in free agency.

As with any offseason, each successive major move tends to have a domino effect around the league as team needs are addressed or evolve. Exactly how the trade market and free agency will interplay in this particular month leading up to the lockout compared to five years ago remains to be seen. But one thing is all but certain: There are only 18 days left before front offices will have to pause their respective roster construction projects. So if they want to improve their teams before then, they better get going soon.