Everton tasted defeat for the first time on Saturday and all of a sudden the narrative is quite different.

There had been plenty of praise for Everton ahead of the game, with the club having gone unbeaten and proven a very tough nut to crack.

But the unbeaten run is over now, after Pedro Neto scored a brace at Hill Dickinson Stadium – and some Evertonians have struggled to accept the nature of the defeat. The feeling for some is that David Moyes was overly cautious in his approach, and that he made questionable decisions.

The way he set up made victory unlikely, and things aren’t about to get much easier for Everton, who have Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium this weekend.

Following that first loss and ahead of that very tough game, Opta have now shared the new percentage chances for Everton to get European football this season.

It’s no secret that Everton are targeting European football again this season, after coming so close in 2025/26.

The Toffees really ought to have got into one of the UEFA competitions for this season, but lost all momentum towards the end of the season and slipped to 13th.

After seven rounds of fixtures, Opta have now published their latest projected Premier League table, and it makes for interesting reading from an Everton perspective.

It suggests Everton are going to finish 10th with a points tally of 49.90. And the current percentage chances of Europe are as follows:

• Champions League – 6.56%
• Europa League – 5.10%

There are three teams only slightly above Everton though in terms of the percentage chance for Europa League football; Brentford (6.84%), Manchester United (6.44%) and Leeds United (6.12%).

A percentage chance for relegation is also offered, with Everton currently having a 9.13% chance.

Everton need to be winning more games

We all know the situation that Everton are in at the moment with their small squad and undoubtedly Moyes has a tough job on his hands.

But this is supposed to be where he works best and there is an argument to say that Everton should have won more games. The draws against Tottenham Hotspur and Hull City feel a bit like missed opportunities now.

There’s still obviously a long way to go this season. But the way Everton are playing at the moment suggests there could be a repeat of last term, as in the club could come close to European football but ultimately fall short.