The Milwaukee Bucks need a win on multiple levels. Not just because of the indignity of being 1-11 or riding an eight-game losing streak, but because another disappointing loss will knock Milwaukee out of contention for the NBA Cup knockout rounds!

The Bucks are 0-1 in the Cup group stage thus far after blowing a lead to the Toronto Raptors last week. They’re fourth in East Group A, exactly 2 points of point differential better than the also 0-1 Brooklyn Nets.

While that position may seem dire, the Bucks actually still have a path to winning this group, as unlikely as it may seem due to a combination of their 0-1 Cup start and overall inability to win any games.

With both Orlando and Detroit still on the Bucks’ Cup schedule, Milwaukee can guarantee both of those teams lose at least one game by beating them. The Bucks would also take the head-to-head tiebreaker with any team they defeat, although point differential remains important for breaking multi-team ties without a clear head-to-head winner.

Additionally, the Magic and Pistons still play each other , meaning if the Bucks somehow won out they would at worst be tied with one of those two teams and the Raptors, who have already lost a game and thus could at best finish 3-1.

That set of results at least gives Milwaukee a chance to win the group, although it’s not totally in their control anymore unless the Raptors lose another game. Another loss, on the other hand, would eliminate the Bucks from knockout stage contention.

Orlando would always finish ahead of the Bucks with the win gap between them, sealing the Bucks from winning Group A. There is only one wild card spot per conference, and since the Raptors and Pistons still play each other, at least one of them will finish with 2 wins. Finishing below second in any group is a guaranteed elimination, and the Bucks’ ceiling would be third with a second loss.

Farfetched? Maybe

It’s probably ridiculous to even consider the Bucks going on sone magical NBA Cup run, but a little Cup magic is exactly what this team needs right now. Taylor Jenkins’ motto is compete, together, get better, and NBA Cup knockout games are some of the most competitive non-playoff games out there.

The good news in the short term is that while Milwaukee has a clean injury report, Orlando’s is lengthy. Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, and Izaiyah Nelson are all ruled Out, with Jalen Suggs, Tristan da Silva, and Jamal Cain Questionable to play.

While Orlando still has real talent, headlined by Franz Wagner, the Bucks are benefitting from injury luck yet again. Milwaukee needs to take advantage, both to break an ugly losing streak and keep any dreams of becoming the first two-time NBA Cup champions alive.