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What the Stats Tell Us About Wake Forest With Three Games to Play

Find out what some of the analytics are saying about the Demon Deacons

Nov 7, 2026; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons running back Jamar Searcy (29) runs for yards after the catch against the Merrimack Warriors during the first half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a 77-0 drubbing of the Merrimack Warriors over the weekend. However, they must now turn their attention to a very talented SMU team they'll face this weekend.

SMU is coming off a dominant performance, with their 51-28 win over Virginia Tech sure to put some wind in their sails.

Wake has a new spot in the AP and Coaches Poll, earning the #11 spot in both sets of rankings. The second round of College Football Playoff Rankings will be released Tuesday around 9 pm. Will the Deacs see some movement there as well? It is still to be determined.

With all of these questions swirling through fans' heads, we thought it would be nice to give a little update on how the Demon Deacons look according to the analytics. Let's dive in and identify some takeaways.

Predictive Analytics

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Wake currently sits at #13 after this past weekend. They actually dropped two spots despite blowing out Merrimack. CFP contenders Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Oregon all sit above them. The Deacs are ahead of contenders Texas Tech, BYU, USC, Iowa, and others.

Looking ahead, Wake currently has a 52.9% chance of making the CFP. That is noteworthy because it is ahead of many contenders, including Ohio State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech, BYU, and Oregon. Wake's odds of winning the conference sit at 20.5%, but the Deacs' chances to win out sit at just 11.5%. For context, Miami's odds of winning out sit at 60.6%, third best.

The Strength of Record metric approximates the chance that an average Top 25 team would have a team's record or better given their schedule. This is normally a good metric to look at when evaluating teams.

Wake has been very strong in terms of this metric all season. They currently hold the 10th-best SOR, right behind Texas, Indiana, and Notre Dame. They are just ahead of Ole Miss, Tennessee, BYU, Oregon, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. All of these teams are vying for playoff spots, so this is certainly a metric that favors the Deacs down the road.

PFF Grades

When it comes to PFF, the Deacs seem to be a bit of an analytics darling. This is likely due to the way in which they have won their last five games by a wide margin.

Specifically, the Deacs are the fifth-highest-ranked team according to PFF. They actually sit in front of the Miami Hurricanes, who are ranked seventh. Their passing game grade is fourth-best nationally, and, maybe surprisingly to some, their run game is eighth nationally.

The run game has really improved recently, with Ty Clark III, Duece Lawrence, and Jamar Searcy all getting productive carries. Gio Lopez has also greatly enhanced the run game with his dynamic playmaking abilities as a runner.

As for defense, the Deacs have the fourth-ranked run defense nationally, thanks to their ability to stop the run. They also have the fourth-best coverage grade, thanks to the guys on the back end. This is certainly a good sign and something to continue to monitor going forward, as this defense will face a step up in competition over the coming weeks.

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