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Tom Hadley – a one-time world number one in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) – is one of our regular contributors who has returned for 2026/27.
He’ll again be providing data-driven articles regularly this season, usually around defensive contribution DefCon) points.
In this piece, his focus is on the third forward spot.
It is quite evident that defenders and midfielders have an abundance of value in every price bracket this season, and whilst Erling Haaland (£15.6m) and Joao Pedro (£7.8m) exist, why would you ever need a third forward?
But I’m here to dive into why forwards offer a unique type of value that is very much worth considering with the game in its current state.
Firstly, let’s look at the top-scoring assets from last season (all the forwards have a ticked box)…
and the current highest-scoring players this season…
It’s clear that over the course of the season, the defenders and midfielders will comfortably dominate the scoring charts.
Picking any forward that isn’t called Haaland or Pedro and playing them every week will likely not work out particularly well. But if you look at the number of blanks across the positions, the numbers are fairly consistent throughout. So it’s not a case that forwards aren’t reliable, it’s more that the fluctuation of points that are more volatile.
Forwards will get a lot of two-pointers mixed in with hauls and single returns, whereas defenders will get a lot of varying point outcomes (often around 3-4 points), which will add up predictably higher across a whole year.
So it’s pretty clear that forwards who aren’t Haaland or Pedro likely have more volatile points outcomes and fewer points across the season, but this doesn’t necessarily mean they are not a significantly useful source of points.
The key is to rotate the third forward spot in a way that not only targets the good fixtures, but complements the options in your squad.
There is, of course, a lot of apprehension towards having a rotation plan in FPL, as points often come in an unpredictable manner. Whilst this appears to be true, there’s reason to suggest that over the course of the season this will prove worthwhile. Not only that, but increasing the number of nailed-on options available to you also provides coverage for injuries.
Let’s look into the ‘best fixtures on paper’ so far this season and how forwards have fared compared to defensive assets.
The fixtures I’ve taken for the sample are:
.. and the average points per position against these teams:
As you can see, forwards so far have a significantly higher average points across these particular fixtures. Not only that, but centre-backs also have the lowest average points amongst the given positions.
51% of strikers have scored 6+ points across these matches, emphasising a fairly reliable spread against the weaker teams and not just hauls from Haaland and Pedro that skew the data.
Now it’s worth mentioning that we’re taking a six-week period. It’s a small sample size. I’m not saying that you should suddenly start to bench your centre-back in the easier matches, of course. You will play them in those fixtures.
The point here is that when you’re planning a rotation for easier matches, having a forward to come in could actually prove to be the most rewarding. The logic is there too: you’d expect teams to create more chances in more favourable fixtures, and the correlation will almost always mean that the forward yields a higher expected goals (xG) in the process.
Just take Thierno Barry (£5.7m), for example. He might miss a lot of chances, but so far his three goals have come in three fixtures from the above list. Eventually, the high xG accumulation will pay off, and it’s these types of fixtures that are most likely to do so.
There are also a lot of talismanic forward options for a budget price. Barry and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) are my particular favourites, as they are both 90-minute men, on penalties and have a huge share of the team’s total xG involvement. Nicolas Jackson at £6.6m is another example of a brilliant budget option, in great form, with great fixtures to come.
Calvert-Lewin just edges it for me ahead of all the options. Leeds have started the season brilliantly and have no other competitions to contend with.
Leeds are also superb at home, and he has a run of incredible home games from Gameweek 10 onwards, with a playable fixture every other week. For rotation purposes, he rotates excellently with Spurs and could be ideal to have alongside the likes of Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.9m) or Savinho (£6.5m).
The common argument is, why would you spend £6m on Calvert-Lewin when you can get James Tarkowski for £6.2m?
I don’t think the question should be that you have Calvert-Lewin instead of Tarkowski; it’s that you should actually try to get him as well as Tarkowski!
It seems to be only Haaland who takes the bulk of the budget at the minute, so it’s more than manageable to spread the funds right throughout the squad in this manner and bench £6m assets. I think we are past the era of having dead spots on the bench personally. Bench points will happen, but they’re also fine; it’s great to have those options at your disposal, and the value across every position is simply worth having in the current game state (in my opinion)!
Whilst it is possible to roll to five free transfers, having a deep squad is only an advantageous play. It allows for more patience, provides coverage for injuries and suspensions, whilst in general offering a reliable minutes option that you can count on any given week if need be.
With someone like Calvert-Lewin or Barry, you could very easily just stick with them and not touch that spot unless they pick up an injury. They’re both great holds all the way through to Christmas and you know that they’re always going to play.
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