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An early-season muddled table is nothing new to the Premier League, but the 2026-27 edition is proving very difficult to comprehend with any sort of confidence.
The club with the Premier League’s fourth-highest xG and second-stingiest xGA is in the early-season relegation zone (Nottingham Forest).
The clubs with three worst expected points hauls are 8th, 10th, and 12th on the actual points table (Newcastle, Hull City, and Ipswich Town).
How equal is the Premier League? It’s a small sample size, sure, but 32% precent of matches have ended in draws, which would be a record for the Premier League era (31.32% in 1996-97).
There is a six-point gap between sixth-place and 20th. Eight teams are a bad week away from the bottom three and just as many — if not more — are or can be in a European place with a win and a good week of out-of-town scores.
Are we living in a Premier League with 14 teams in relegation danger, 14 contending for Europe, or both?
Let’s look at some tiers of teams after eight weeks of the 2026-27 Premier League seasson.
We’re aware that Man City face other obstacles to their points total, but we’re simply talking about the teams here. Only two clubs have title experience, veteran depth, and managerial familiarity. Yes, Enzo Maresca was away from Man City from three seasons but the most important players on the team know him and Enzo Fernandez is also there to help any adjustments to the system. The siege mentality is not going to hurt anything either as City deal with being a historical villain in every away day. Arsenal are the reigning champs and have only lost once despite not playing all that well. The elephant is off their back and they have elite game-killers coming off the bench whether hunting a goal or defying the opposition.
Barcola finds Isak for Liverpool's second
Bradley Barcola's cross finds Alexander Isak inside the box for the Swedish striker's sixth goal of the season to double the Reds' lead over the Seagulls at Anfield.
Both of these clubs have the talent and acumen to challenge for a title, and Liverpool are not far removed from winning the league. This isn’t, however, about nerves or nous — it’s about doing it in Year #1. The Reds are going to get Hugo Ekitike back at some point and look likely to be humming by the end of the season but navigating the Premier League and the Champions League may be a bridge too far for Andoni Iraola. Can his youthful depth contribute enough right away? Chelsea don’t have to worry about the Champions League this season but do have a similar problem with a first-year system and the exit of Fernandez to Man City didn’t help. That said, the signings of Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck feel better every week. It wouldn’t be a surprise for either of these teams to join Tier 1 by the Festive Fixtures.
I want to push Aston Villa into the next tier, really, but it’s so difficult to see them dealing with another Champions League knockout run while getting contributions from everywhere after their summer of tumult. Zion Suzuki is a star and they’ve added real deal players to compete in all comps as Johan Manzambi, Leon Goretzka, Nicolas Jackson, and Joao Gomes all feel like hits but... what about the back? Everton‘s depth won’t be tested as much and David Moyes added players with plenty of grit, Premier League experience, and mentality. Can they get goals outside of Thierno Barry or add someone in January? Spurs are legit in terms of talent and managerial knowhow. It feels like the Chelsea win could be a lit fuse en route to their powder keg, but are they going to get enough production from center forward? Is there a road back, even short-term, for Richarlison to add depth?
Funny thing here is that you might like this a bit more if they switched managers because Brighton have the deeper team and Marco Rose has been in Europe before while Fabian Hurzeler might match the youthful energy of the Bournemouth. Both, however, are going to be so challenged by their participation in European tournaments this season. The Cherries already have four players who’ve started 10 or more games and another three who have started nine. Hurzeler’s been a bit better with rotation but Charalampos Kostoulas is the only center forward scoring and he needs Promise David or Georginio Rutter — who’s yet to score more than five goals in a Premier League season — to become more regular finishers.
One of two teams to get their own tier, and this one is a positive lone wolf. There is so much to like here, especially if Igor Thiago gets going atop the attack. Only Arsenal and Fulham are covering more ground per match than Brentford, whose biggest question mark is whether they can do it for a whole season after sagging down the stretch last season. A single goal in any of three nil-nil draws against Bournemouth, Leeds, or Fulham late last season would’ve pushed them into the Conference League. Can they open up their attack without opening up too much at the back, all while dealing with big pressure?
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It’s one thing to Manchester United to be sitting 16th after eight games. It’s another when you have one win despite playing two promoted teams and just once bonafide power (Manchester City). Let’s say Michael Carrick is replaced by the best manager to ever live. Great. It’s Chelsea, Villa, Liverpool next in the league. Benjamin Sesko is going to be return and Matthijs de Ligt will get more and more comfortable. That’s not going to fix a whole lot even if Bruno Fernandes and Lisandro Martinez pile up elite performances and at least one young midfielder takes a massive leap (Carlos Baleba and Andrey Santos are 22 while Kobbie Mainoo is 21). But this is a group of players who all need to take a step we haven’t seen or unexpectedly roll back the years. Good luck.
All of these teams have reliable goalkeepers and back line leaders who are “too good to fail.” They also have potentially-fatal flaws. Newcastle‘s midfield makeover is in dire need of an experienced piece to join Nico Gonzalez. Leeds’ has industry up top and a willingness to sniff out rebounds but they lack something in attack that will scare game-planners and have already struggled to nil-nils with Palace and Sunderland. Nottingham Forest have Oliver Glasner, Morgan Gibbs-White, Murillo, and more but can they get more control in the midfield and end product from Liam Delap and the attack? Effort’s worth plenty but the ball still needs to get over the goal line, and Forest are almost 10 full goals behind their xG. Fulham might not have a go-to man in the attack but they have a lot of depth in those positions and remind me of Forest two seasons ago. Bernd Leno, Calvin Bassey, Antonee Robinson, and Alex Iwobi are PL vets with solid leadership.
Europe has two of these teams in tough spots. Sunderland are at the foot of the Premier League table but have a wizard in Regis Le Bris and an unbeaten record in the Europa League. The back line in front of Robin Roefs frightens me outside of Nordi Mukiele, and they were a bottom-three expected points team last season despite finishing seventh. Now they have Europe. Crystal Palace are going to have to overcome the loss of a brilliant manager who had the club in the palm of his hands, and there’s just been so much attrition at center back with Maxence Lacroix and Marc Guehi skipping town. Quinten Timber gives hope to the midfield, but there are so many matches ahead of this group. Hull City’s early season is an awesome story but a big part of it seems down to conceding six goals fewer than xGA. Mohamed Belloumi is a riot but who else is taking over enough games to keep them out of a bottom-three fight. I like Ipswich Town a lot and the manager has done this dance before, but the Tractor Boys are already -38 in open play shot attempts versus those conceded, and -8.98 xGD in open play. The keepers are going to have to pull up a forest of trees. Coventry City are struggling even more in open play shots at -51! Frank Lampard is a good recruiter and knows how to galvanize a room but he’s going to have to show a leap in tactical acumen to keep Cov up this season. What a story it will be if he does the trick.
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