NORMAN — The Sooners’ bowl streak is in jeopardy.

Oklahoma has played in a bowl game or the College Football Playoff in each of the last 27 seasons, dating back to 1999. The Sooners are 4-4 with games against Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri left on the schedule. OU must get to six wins to reach bowl eligibility. 

What does the path there look like?

State of the team

Oklahoma has one of the nation’s worst offenses, and as a result, the Sooners parted ways with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Monday, just two days after their 42-25 loss to South Carolina on Saturday.

OU ranks 108th nationally in scoring offense and 111th in total offense. Quarterback John Mateer has turned the ball over nine times in eight games, and the team is tied for 130th in FBS with 15 turnovers committed.

Against South Carolina, even the Sooners’ usually-elite defense struggled. Oklahoma gave up 521 offensive yards and missed 27 tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.

The lopsided loss to the Gamecocks was the low point of this season. And if the Sooners play like that again, they might not win another game.

Best-case scenario

It seems far-fetched at this point, but if the Sooners win out, they’ll be 8-4 entering bowl season.

It’s feasible to see OU’s offense playing better in spurts — like the Sooners did against Mississippi State, Texas and Kentucky. But the offense has been far from consistent, and because of that, it’s hard to imagine that changes against four quality defenses.

The biggest road block in the way of a possible 8-4 season is Ole Miss.

The Rebels, ranked No. 10 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, are led by dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Chambliss threw for 315 yards and a touchdown and also rushed for 53 yards in Ole Miss’ 34-26 win over Oklahoma last year.

Under new head coach Pete Golding, Ole Miss’ offense has been similarly stellar. And if the Sooners didn’t learn from their rough outing against South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, it could be a long day when the Rebels come to town on Nov. 14.

If the Sooners get to eight wins, they’ll likely work their way into the Las Vegas Bowl or the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Worst-case scenario

As dismal as the 2026 season has been, this scenario is similarly hard to expect.

Again, the Sooners have played complementary football in spurts. They played a rather complete game against Mississippi State on Oct. 24, just two weeks after they defeated No. 1 Texas.

Every game on the schedule is losable, but there’s also not a game that the Sooners aren’t capable of winning.

A 4-8 season would mark the worst season for OU since 1997, when the Sooners finished with the same record under coach John Blake. Oklahoma, obviously, would not go bowling with only four wins.

Most likely scenario

Anywhere from five to seven wins seems most likely.

Here are the ESPN Analytics win probabilities for OU’s next four games:

at No. 24 Florida: 36%
vs. No. 10 Ole Miss: 29.4%
vs. Texas A&M: 51.3%
at No. 18 Missouri: 37.2%

According to those metrics, Oklahoma is only predicted to win one of its final four contests. 

Texas A&M, which has seen a similar regression to Oklahoma’s, is 4-4. The Aggies have also dealt with offensive inconsistency and poor quarterback play. Still, the Sooners could — and likely would — lose that game if they play like they did against South Carolina.

Oklahoma’s other three opponents are currently ranked, and the Sooners must play two of them on the road. Even so, ESPN gives them a fairly strong chance to win each of those contests.

If the Sooners end the year with six or seven wins, they will go bowling — but their postseason destination won’t be overly desirable. Possible bowl games would include the Texas Bowl or the Music City Bowl. 

It’s also possible that they could land in a bowl game without an SEC tie-in, such as the Liberty Bowl or the Birmingham Bowl. This was the case in 2024, when OU lost to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl.