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The College Football Playoff committee's initial rankings have given us our first clear view of where teams truly stand in the race to make the 12-team field. Alabama's No. 5 ranking was the absolute best possible outcome for the 6-2 Crimson Tide, and opens the door for Kalen DeBoer's team to make the playoff as a three-loss team.
We'll take a look at this week's slate here, looking at the results that will benefit Alabama regardless of whether or not the Crimson Tide wins in Death Valley this weekend.
NOTE — This is entirely based on College Football Playoff implications. I understand the idea of "rooting" for some of the teams in this article may seem ridiculous to some Alabama fans. Welcome to the new age of college football.
Among the most important games out there for Alabama. Ole Miss would instantly jump the Crimson Tide with a win over the Bulldogs, and the Crimson Tide's signature loss would be greatly devalued. On the flip side, an Ole Miss loss, especially by multiple scores, would essentially guarantee Alabama a higher final spot than the Rebels.
Alabama should be rooting for South Carolina to rattle off some wins. Yes, the Crimson Tide beat both at home, but South Carolina has the opportunity to go down as a true premium victory. Texas A&M is a bad football team that has lost games to multiple relevant SEC teams. Meanwhile, South Carolina's other two losses are Mississippi State (irrelevant) and Kentucky (Alabama won head-to-head).
South Carolina is viewed as a quality win for the Crimson Tide right now. That changes if the Gamecocks lose this weekend in College Station.
You would rather have a top-five win than a top-10 loss.
Alabama's road win over Kentucky could get even better if the Wildcats walk into Knoxville and take down the Volunteers. A loss to Tennessee at Neyland will always hold some value, even if the Volunteers finish the season at 8-4. There is clearly a more valuable favorable here.
Slight lean towards Missouri here, because the Tigers still have to play Georgia and Kentucky. The odds of Eli Drinkwitz's squad finishing the season at 10-2 are very low. Texas still has to play LSU in Death Valley, and no matter what happens this weekend, Alabama will want LSU to win that game.
Regardless, one SEC team is guaranteed to suffer a third loss, and that's a positive for just about everybody on the bubble.
The four-loss Sooners are not going to be confused for a quality football team anytime soon. Florida is a quality win for Missouri, South Carolina, and Georgia, and a quality loss for Oklahoma and Texas. If the Gators suffer their fourth loss of the season this week, that would change.
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Miami is going to make the College Football Playoff. It would take an absolutely unprecedented collapse for the Hurricanes not to. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot if it is ranked in the top 12, but a loss this weekend would make it an uphill battle for Marcus Freeman's spot to reach that ranking.
Notre Dame's season is on the line this weekend. Its win over Wisconsin and its upcoming matchup with SMU both took massive hits as those teams suffered upset losses last week. If the Fighting Irish lose this game, they are on the outside looking in as a two-loss team without a single top-25 win.
Despite the undefeated start to the season, UCLA appears very vulnerable. Minnesota has proven to be a good football team for much of the season, and a Gophers' win would push UCLA's season to the brink as a team that likely can't afford a second loss.
Additionally, Minnesota staying near the top of the Big 10 helps justify the status that Alabama's win over Mississippi State holds as a quality win. A fully healthy Bulldogs' team destroyed Minnesota, 38-13, so Minnesota winning games indirectly benefits Alabama.
Ohio State's season would be effectively over with a loss here. Both teams would still be alive for the Big 10 Championship with an Oregon win, but that would be the only path to the playoff for either.
The nightmare scenario for everyone on the bubble would be the following:
This would give us Utah as the Big 12 Champions at 12-1, BYU as the runner-ups at 11-2, and Texas Tech at 11-1. A three-bid Big 12 would spell disaster for anyone on the bubble and would likely kill the possibility of a three-loss team making the field.
BYU would be an intriguing team at 10-2 with its only losses to Notre Dame and Utah, but the Cougars were left out in a similar spot last season.
This ties right in with the above. West Virginia could effectively end the Red Raiders' season this week, killing the Big 12's dream outcome.
All of these teams still have just two Big 12 losses and paths to make the playoff as bid-stealing Big 12 Champions. As unlikely as any of these four teams running the table may seem, crazier things have happened.
If the idea isn't already clear, everybody on the bubble is rooting for the Big 12 to cannibalize itself. It's still possible that the league only lands one playoff team, the ideal scenario for the SEC.
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