College hoops season is here, which means the monthslong journey to hearing your name called on Selection Sunday has begun. This season is the first with the newly expanded 76-team field, which changes a ton about how the bracket will look and feel. With that in mind, Sports Illustrated is giving you an early look at exactly how the Big Dance’s new format will shake out before a single game is even played. 

A preseason bracket projection can’t rely on résumés, so the seeding and selection here is based entirely on SI’s 1–365 national team rankings published Tuesday. While not perfect, it provides the best look at how SI’s projections might translate to Selection Sunday seeding. 

Here’s a look at the projected 76-team field and notes on how the new bracketing rules shape the event. 

On the Bubble 

• Last Four Byes: Auburn, North Carolina, Ohio State, Cincinnati
• Last Four In: Providence, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida State
• First Four Out: Creighton, Saint Louis, DePaul, Virginia Tech
• Next Four Out: New Mexico, Georgia, SMU, Clemson 

The New “Opening Round”

• No. 10 seed: Wisconsin vs. Xavier 
• No. 10 seed: Utah State vs. Texas A&M
• No. 11 seed: TCU vs. Mississippi
• No. 11 seed: West Virginia vs. Maryland
• No. 11 seed: Providence vs. Minnesota
• No. 12 seed: Oklahoma vs. Florida State

Our preseason rankings suggest the new NCAA tournament bids as a result of the 76-team expansion will go almost exclusively to power-conference schools. All eight in this projection are from the five high-major leagues, though Grand Canyon (No. 50 in the SI rankings) and VCU (No. 45) would be in stronger at-large positions should they fail to earn the automatic bid we’ve projected them for. It’s also possible that résumé-based metrics (the critically important WAB, for instance) will be kinder to mid-majors than the preseason power rankings I’ve created that are meant to more closely mirror a predictive metric like KenPom. 

Of note: The NCAA has stated it plans to continue to group matchups in the opening round between teams closest to each other on the overall seed list. That means the last two teams in the field (Oklahoma and Florida State) play each other for a spot in the 64-team draw, as do the two best teams that just barely missed the cut for a bye (Wisconsin and Xavier). That didn’t matter a whole lot when there were just four at-large teams in the opening round, but the idea of sending home what’s ostensibly the 40th-ranked team in the field while the No. 50 or 51 team is guaranteed a spot in the next round is a bit strange. 

• No. 15 seed: North Dakota State vs. Austin Peay
• No. 15 seed: East Tennessee State vs. Queens
• No. 16 seed: Howard vs. Montana State
• No. 16 seed: Merrimack vs. Vermont
• No. 16 seed: LIU vs. UT Martin
• No. 16 seed: Bethune-Cookman vs. Lehigh

The expanded tournament’s impact will be felt most by the automatic qualifiers. The 12 worst conference tournament champions will now have to play their way into the main 64-team draw, up from four in the old model. Not only does it mean having to win a game against another strong mid-major, it makes the path to an upset in the Round of 64 more difficult; a team like North Dakota State or Austin Peay would have been a solid No. 14 seed in the old tournament, now they’ll draw a tougher foe as a No. 15. Add in the extra travel and shortened preparation time, and the mountain to climb to create a Cinderella moment just got a lot steeper. 

The positive for these schools and leagues is the opportunity to earn an additional NCAA tournament unit and the revenue that comes with it. That money can help these athletic departments keep up with the rising costs associated with putting a winning product on the floor. 

The Bracket

* indicates a projected automatic qualifier

South Region

• No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman*/Lehigh*
• No. 8 Purdue vs. No. 9 Baylor
• No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 Oklahoma/Florida State
• No. 4 St. John’s vs. No. 13 High Point*
• No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 11 TCU/Mississippi
• No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 Miami (Ohio)*
• No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 10 Cincinnati
• No. 2 Gonzaga* vs. No. 15 Wright State*

East Region

• No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 LIU*/UT Martin*
• No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 USC
• No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Wichita State*
• No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 13 Murray State*
• No. 6 Nebraska vs. No. 11 VCU*
• No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington*
• No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Wisconsin/Xavier
• No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 North Dakota State*/Austin Peay*

Midwest Region

• No. 1 UConn* vs. No. 16 Merrimack*/Vermont*
• No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 North Carolina
• No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Saint Mary’s*
• No. 4 Miami vs. No. 13 McNeese State*
• No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Providence/Minnesota
• No. 3 Vanderbilt vs. No. 14 Liberty*
• No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Utah State/Texas A&M
• No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Penn*

West Region

• No. 1 Illinois* vs. No. 16 Howard*/Montana State*
• No. 8 Marquette vs. No. 9 Auburn
• No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon*
• No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 UC Irvine*
• No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 West Virginia/Maryland
• No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 14 James Madison*
• No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Ohio State
• No. 2 Arizona* vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State*/Queens*

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