The regular season is over, the brackets are set, and the road to an Alabama high school football state championship begins this week.

The 2026 Alabama High School Athletic Association playoffs bring a new look to the postseason. Class 6A is now the highest public-school classification, with eight teams receiving first-round byes, while private schools compete in separate Single-A and Double-AA divisions.

High School On SI breaks down the first-round matchups, predicting the winner of each game and assigning a projected win probability.

The predictions range from a virtual toss-up between Appalachian and Sulligent, with Appalachian given a 52% chance of winning, to overwhelming favorites such as Addison and UMS-Wright, both projected to win with 97% confidence.

One game won't be played. St. John Paul II has forfeited to Briarwood Christian, sending Briarwood into the second round. Eight Class 6A teams also received first-round byes, including undefeated Prattville and perennial contender Thompson.

A word about the percentages: These are informed estimates, not the results of a computer model. Each prediction weighs region strength, home-field advantage and the teams' overall body of work, including the quality of their opponents and margins of victory.

A 55% probability represents a matchup that could go either way. A 75% favorite is expected to win but still faces a meaningful chance of an upset. A team assigned a 90% probability is considered a substantial favorite on paper.

These percentages reflect editorial judgment rather than statistically calculated probabilities.

Of course, predictions only go so far.

Friday night will settle the arguments.

Class 6A Alabama High School Football Playoff Predictions

Class 6A North

Gadsden City (5-5) at Hewitt-Trussville (6-4)

Pick: Hewitt-Trussville (60%)

Spain Park (6-4) at Buckhorn (6-4)

Pick: Spain Park (55%)

Huntsville (4-6) at Vestavia Hills (7-2)

Pick: Vestavia Hills (75%)

Hoover (4-6) at Bob Jones (5-5)

Pick: Hoover (60%)

Class 6A South

JAG (2-7) at Foley (6-4)

Pick: Foley (85%)

Robertsdale (2-8) at Carver-Montgomery (6-4)

Pick: Carver-Montgomery (90%)

Enterprise (6-4) at Baker (5-5)

Pick: Baker (60%)

Alma Bryant (3-7) at Opelika (4-5)

Pick: Opelika (75%)

Class 5A Alabama High School Football Playoff Predictions

Class 5A North

Gardendale (5-5) at Boaz (8-2)

Pick: Boaz (75%)

Muscle Shoals (6-3) at Oxford (7-2)

Pick: Muscle Shoals (60%)

Mae Jemison (5-4) at Parker (9-1)

Pick: Parker (75%)

Pell City (4-5) at Russellville (9-1)

Pick: Russellville (80%)

St. Clair County (5-5) at Florence (9-1)

Pick: Florence (75%)

Arab (8-2) at Minor (7-3)

Pick: Minor (55%)

Austin (6-4) at Clay-Chalkville (7-2)

Pick: Clay-Chalkville (85%)

Mortimer Jordan (6-4) at Douglas (9-1)

Pick: Douglas (75%)

Class 5A South

Theodore (5-5) at Homewood (9-1)

Pick: Homewood (80%)

Bessemer City (7-3) at Pike Road (7-3)

Pick: Pike Road (65%)

Ramsay (6-4) at Gulf Shores (10-0)

Pick: Gulf Shores (75%)

Russell County (7-3) at McAdory (8-2)

Pick: McAdory (60%)

Stanhope Elmore (6-4) at Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa (9-0)

Pick: Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa (85%)

Pelham (8-2) at Saraland (9-1)

Pick: Saraland (80%)

Central-Tuscaloosa (7-2) at Benjamin Russell (6-2)

Pick: Benjamin Russell (65%)

Spanish Fort (7-3) at Helena (7-3)

Pick: Helena (55%)

Class 4A Alabama High School Football Playoff Predictions

Class 4A North

Center Point (5-5) at Scottsboro (10-0)

Pick: Scottsboro (75%)

Hamilton (8-2) at Alexandria (9-1)

Pick: Alexandria (65%)

Guntersville (5-5) at Oak Grove (9-1)

Pick: Oak Grove (60%)

Moody (5-5) at West Morgan (7-3)

Pick: West Morgan (60%)

Central-Clay County (5-5) at Deshler (8-2)

Pick: Deshler (65%)

Good Hope (7-3) at Fairfield (6-4)

Pick: Good Hope (55%)

Brooks (6-4) at Leeds (8-1)

Pick: Leeds (70%)

Shades Valley (5-5) at Cherokee County (7-3)

Pick: Cherokee County (60%)

Class 4A South

Orange Beach (8-2) at Charles Henderson (8-2)

Pick: Charles Henderson (65%)

Sipsey Valley (8-2) at Andalusia (7-3)

Pick: Andalusia (75%)

Valley (6-3) at Vigor (8-2)

Pick: Vigor (75%)

Carroll-Ozark (6-4) at Selma (9-1)

Pick: Selma (70%)

Ashford (6-4) at Northside (9-1)

Pick: Northside (75%)

Elmore County (6-4) at Williamson (7-1)

Pick: Williamson (60%)

Shelby County (4-6) at Eufaula (7-3)

Pick: Eufaula (75%)

Citronelle (8-2) at Marbury (9-1)

Pick: Marbury (60%)

Class 3A Alabama High School Football Playoff Predictions

Class 3A North

East Lawrence (6-4) at Plainview (10-0)

Pick: Plainview (85%)

Wilson (7-3) at Etowah (6-4)

Pick: Etowah (60%)

New Hope (7-3) at Hatton (10-0)

Pick: Hatton (70%)

Hokes Bluff (6-4) at Lauderdale County (7-3)

Pick: Lauderdale County (65%)

Vinemont (6-4) at Central-Florence (8-2)

Pick: Central-Florence (75%)

North Jackson (7-3) at Fayette County (8-2)

Pick: Fayette County (55%)

Rogers (5-5) at Oneonta (9-1)

Pick: Oneonta (85%)

Curry (6-4) at Geraldine (9-1)

Pick: Geraldine (80%)

Class 3A South

Escambia County (6-4) at Cleburne County (10-0)

Pick: Cleburne County (80%)

Cordova (7-3) at Pike County (7-3)

Pick: Pike County (60%)

Talladega (5-5) at T.R. Miller (8-2)

Pick: T.R. Miller (75%)

Slocomb (6-3) at Bibb County (8-2)

Pick: Bibb County (75%)

Booker T. Washington-Tuskegee (5-5) at Pleasant Grove (8-2)

Pick: Pleasant Grove (80%)

White Plains (6-4) at Jackson (7-3)

Prediction not included in the submitted copy.