Libya could overtake Nigeria in the Confederation of African Football (CAF) inter-club rankings, following the early elimination of all four Nigerian representatives from continental competitions.

According to a 2026 ranking circulating online, Nigeria currently occupy 12th position with 19 points, while Libya are 13th with 15 points.

The development has put Nigeria’s position among Africa’s top 12 football associations under pressure, with Libya hoping to capitalise on the performances of their remaining representative in continental competition.

Al Ahli Tripoli are representing Libya in the CAF Confederation Cup, and their progress in the tournament could prove decisive in determining whether the North African country can close the gap on Nigeria.

Al Ahli Tripoli hold key to Libya’s ambitions

A strong campaign by Al Ahli Tripoli could improve Libya’s ranking points and strengthen the country’s chances of moving into the top 12.

Under a hypothetical calculation based on a fivefold seasonal weighting, reaching the quarter-finals could earn Libya 10 weighted points, potentially taking its projected tally to 25 points.

A run to the semi-finals could yield 15 weighted points, increasing the projected total to 30 points and potentially putting Libya ahead of Nigeria.

However, the figures remain projections and should not be treated as confirmed CAF rankings. The final outcome will depend on the applicable ranking calculations and results recorded by clubs from other African countries.

CAF’s five-year ranking system considers clubs’ performances over the relevant period, with older results dropping out as the ranking cycle advances. Consequently, a country’s final position cannot be determined solely by adding projected points from one club’s current campaign.

Nigeria face pressure after early eliminations

Nigeria’s position has come under scrutiny following the elimination of all four representatives in the preliminary rounds of the CAF inter-club competitions.

The early exits have denied the country further opportunities to accumulate points during the current campaign, potentially weakening its ability to maintain its standing against competing associations.

For Libya, Al Ahli Tripoli’s continued participation offers an opportunity to improve the country’s position, although success is not guaranteed.

Performances by clubs from other African associations could also affect the final standings, making the race for the top 12 dependent on several factors beyond the results of the Nigerian and Libyan representatives.

Nigeria will therefore need stronger performances from its clubs in subsequent continental campaigns to protect its position and improve its standing in CAF’s inter-club rankings.

A final determination of whether Libya can displace Nigeria will depend on the official ranking calculations and the results of the relevant competitions.