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Why Virginia Cavaliers' fast-paced offense makes them the pick over Maryland at -5.5

The sixth-ranked Cavaliers are shooting 50% from the field and averaging 22.8 assists through four double-digit wins

College Basketball still isn't at the point where they have great matchups for us every day, but I'll give this Friday's slate some credit. There are definitely some good ones out there for us to enjoy. It has been a fun start to the season, and we've done fairly well with the few plays that I've shared so far, but we want to build that bankroll for March Madness, which feels far away and extremely close all at the same time. Tonight is a fun matchup between Virginia and Maryland.

The Virginia Cavaliers come into the season ranked as the sixth-best team in the country, and so far, they've been perfect. Believe it or not, the team has already put four games under their belt. Even one of the games was against a respectable opponent. They started the season with a 29-point win over Drexler, and then beat Northeastern by 25 the next game. Their toughest opponent so far was Arkansas, and they won that game by 19 points as well. On Tuesday, they took down Bucknell by 34 points. Four games, four double-digit victories.

Virginia Cavaliers players sing the school fight song after their game against Bucknell Bison.
Virginia Cavaliers players sing the school fight song after their game against the Bucknell Bison at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va., on Nov. 10, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Years ago, Virginia was one of those teams that played at a snail's pace. They were boring to watch, with most games averaging in the 60s for both teams. Now this is a fast-paced offensive team, but they still have some solid defense. What I like most about the Cavaliers, aside from an incredibly efficient offense that is shooting 50% from the field, is that they are averaging 22.8 assists per game. That means the team is working together and finding open players in space.

The Maryland Terrapins are just 1-1 to start their season, and I'm not quite sure that this squad is going to have a great season. The Big 10 is tough enough with the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Illinois, but even some of the lower-level teams are talented enough to give Maryland fits. They started their season with a nice win over Bucknell, winning by almost 30. Unfortunately for them, they couldn't keep that success against Georgetown.

Pharrel Payne drives past Chol MacHot during the first half at Capital One Arena.
Nov. 7, 2026, in Washington, D.C., Maryland Terrapins forward Pharrel Payne drives past Georgetown Hoyas center Chol MacHot during the first half at Capital One Arena. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

The team is mostly built around their forward, Pharrel Payne. He has had a nice start to the season with 20.5 points per game and seven boards. The backcourt has been solid enough, but I think they need to figure out who is going to lead the team and who will need to focus more on scoring. Kaden House has shot well from the three-point line, but has only taken four attempts in two games. Andre Mills, on the other hand, has hit just 30% of his threes, but has taken a quarter of the team's attempts this season. DJ Wagner is still looking for his first three, missing his first eight attempts this year.

Ryan Odom shakes hands with Thijs de Ridder during a Virginia Cavaliers basketball game.
Virginia Cavaliers head coach Ryan Odom shakes hands with Cavaliers forward Thijs de Ridder (28) against the Bucknell Bison in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va., on Nov. 10, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

The books seem to think this will be a close game because Virginia is only favored by -5.5. I recognize that they are on the road and facing a team off a loss, but I'm not sure the talent is there for Maryland to really make this a game. The Cavaliers are moving the ball very well, playing solid enough defense, and shooting extremely efficiently. Give me the Cavaliers -5.5.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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