Friday afternoon in London is no place for a Welsh rugby fan to enjoy themselves a few weeks before Christmas, and that is what makes Saturday’s Nations Championship Test against Japan so important.

Lose and it is eminently possible that Steve Tandy’s men will find themselves in the dreaded basement battle – the 11th-12th-place play-off – that will open finals weekend at Twickenham at the end of this month. With kick-off at 4.40pm on a work day, it would undoubtedly feature the lowest Welsh support at English HQ for decades and would cast fresh humiliation on a nation fairly reeking of the stuff.

As it is, there are reports of more than 70,000 tickets going unsold for the next three weekends in Cardiff. All eyes will be on the attendance for the visit of the All Blacks on Saturday week. Despite the famous losing run against New Zealand – 73 years and 33 matches – clashes against the Kiwis have only once attracted a crowd of fewer than 70,000 at the Principality Stadium. And that was the 68,332 who witnessed last year’s 52-26 defeat.

Because of what one Welsh Rugby Union insider described as “a perfect s---storm”, it would be no surprise to see this fall yet further 12 months on, especially if they fail to beat Japan in style. Goodness knows how few would then show up for the match against Australia. The fears of a mass outbreak of apathy are all too plausible.

Of course, there is the cost-of-living crisis and the price of tickets – the cheapest for New Zealand is £65 for an adult – and when put alongside the form of the past three years – three successive Six Nations wooden spoons and just four wins in the past 33 Tests – any disaffection is understandable. Another factor is the ongoing fan anger at the WRU’s plan to slash one of the four regions in the next 18 months. It is hardly a backdrop against which to sell tickets like hot Welsh cakes.

However, there is optimism and most of it has been provided by the recent performances of the Welsh players in the Gallagher Prem. Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake have impressed in their first few months at Gloucester, as have Aaron Wainwright and Gabriel Hamer-Webb at Leicester Tigers, while Tomos Williams and Rhys Carré (Saracens), Nicky Smith (Sale Sharks), Louis Rees-Zammit (Bristol Bears) and Dafydd Jenkins (Exeter Chiefs) have also reinforced their reputations in the English league.

In all, Tandy named 14 England-based players in his 39-man Nations Championship squad and it would not be a shock if he selected 10 of these in the 23 to face Eddie Jones’s Japan. Whilst Warren Gatland once lamented those who undertook their day job on the other side of the River Severn, there is a sense that these exiles could now be the saviours.

“The Welsh boys [playing in England] are doing Wales proud,” said Smith, who is in his first season at Sale having joined from Leicester. “A lot of boys who haven’t played in the Prem before have stepped up and you’d swear they’ve been there for years. But I doubt anyone is surprised when you look at the talent. Dewi, Jac and Aaron are world-class players and playing for good teams.

“And the great thing is, if you look at the pack, everyone’s starting in England – there’s a core there. Obviously the Prem is a very competitive league and then you’ve got Adam Beard [the lock] who is playing in the Top 14 in France with Montpelier, who is flying at the minute as well. We are in a really good place.”

Indeed, the pack is genuinely starting to take shape. In the backs there are question marks at half-back and in the centres, but improvement has been made under Tandy, who has now held the reins for 14 months. The commanding defeat of Italy in March – Wales’s first Six Nations win for three years – was the high point so far and, in July, they followed it up by making it back-to-back wins against Fiji at the Cardiff City Stadium.

However, they proceeded to take a few steps back with losses in Argentina and South Africa and Morgan, the mighty flanker who is at the heart of the revival, appreciates that the scorelines now count as the Tandy honeymoon period runs out.

“We’ve been with Steve and the other coaches for a year now,” Morgan said at Wales team base earlier this week. “We were disappointed with how things finished in the summer, but we are just trying to keep progressing as a team and developing. The way the boys have been here over the last couple of weeks in preparation, has been brilliant, and there’s a great feeling in the group. Hopefully, we can put in a couple of performances this autumn campaign and hopefully get a couple of results.”

Japan is a game they dare not lose. It does not sound a great deal for a country with four Six Nations Grand Slams in the last two decades but, after at least being competitive against the antipodeans, ninth place in the inaugural Nations Championship would be an actual positive for the team ranked 11th in the world. But they must avoid that Friday doomsday at all costs.