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Duke's shooting and every other top-10 college basketball team's biggest weakness

Looking at what areas the top college basketball teams like Florida, Duke, and Illinois need to improve

Army West Point v Duke | Alex Halloway/GettyImages

This season of college basketball once again features some elite teams at the top of the country. Whether it be Florida returning basically everyone from last year's team, Duke putting together an elite talent of roster, or UCLA surprising a lot of people early in the season, it's setting up to be another very fun March.

However, that doesn't mean these teams are perfect. If any of these teams want to be cutting down nets in March, they still are going to have areas they'll need to improve in.

1. Florida Gators: Turnover margin

Florida currently has a turnover percentage of 19.1, ranking 226th in the country. This effectively means that they're turning the ball over in one out of every five possessions. On the flip side, defensively, they're only forcing a turnover percentage 15.2. The Gators are currently averaging 2.6 more turnovers per game than their opponents.

Florida's defense isn't necessarily built to force turnovers, so that isn't as much of an issue. However, with how elite they are at offensive rebounding, it's imperative for the offense to simply get a shot up on the rim. Alex Condon and Boogie Fland are averaging 3.0 and 2.7 turnovers per game, respectively. Both have shown in the past the ability to take care of the ball, so simply dialing it back just a bit and settling into the offense could be enough.

2. Duke Blue Devils: 3-point shooting

Duke Blue Devils guard John Blackwell | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Duke has struggled to shoot the ball so far this season, making just 30.1 percent of their looks from three, ranking 222nd in the country. It was a concern coming into the season, and it's starting to manifest a bit. In their loss to Michigan State, Duke shot just 7-of-29 from 3.

John Blackwell is shooting just 33.3 percent from three this season, but he's a career 37.2 percent shooter from three. Caleb Foster is shooting 35.7 percent, but he's a career 38.2 percent shooter.

Duke's shooting splits by shot attempt paint the picture. On the season, Duke is 9-of-34 on contested catch-and-shoot 3s, 2-of-14 on pull-up 3s, and 11-of-25 on open catch-and-shoot t3s. When the Blue Devils generate quality looks, they've been able to knock them down, however, they haven't done that on a consistent basis.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini: Free throw shooting

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois has arguably the best offense in the country, but free throw shooting has still been a major concern. Here are their free throw splits for the three games:

  • vs FDU: 9-of-16, 56.2 percent
  • vs Penn: 16-of-23, 69.6 percent
  • at Texas Tech: 8-of-19, 42.1 percent

Illinois is shooting 56.9 percent from the charity stripe through three games, ranking 349th in the country. They lost to Texas Tech by six points while shooting 42 percent from the free throw line and Texas Tech only missed three free throws all game.

The positive outlook would be Illinois has quality free throw shooters who are just missing. Stefan Vaaks shot 84 percent last year, but he's only at 33.3 percent right now. Tomislav Ivisic is just 33.3 percent currently even though he's a career 75 percent shooter. The freshmen Quentin Coleman and Lincoln Williams are both 50 percent from the line, but they project to be much better shooters.

4. UConn Huskies: Movement shooting

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Through three games, there really haven't been many major weaknesses for UConn, although they've had only one game against a top-300 KenPom opponent when they beat Michigan by eight. They play Ohio State, Arizona, Duke, Illinois, and Kansas over their next seven games, so we'll know a lot more about them then.

To nitpick in the meantime, UConn is shooting just 27.8 percent on movement 3s, per Synergy. UConn is an offense predicated on off-ball movement, cutting, and shooting, so it does become important for them to make jumpers coming off of off-ball screens.

It's early in the season with a very small sample size, so these numbers can change quickly. Braylon Mulllins is shooting just 17 percent on movement 3s so far, and Nik Khamenia and Jayden Ross are the only two players on the roster to make at least one movement three.

5. Michigan State Spartans: Fouling on defense

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Michigan State has been dominant in the early season which includes racking up a win against Duke. They have a top-5 defense in the country and a top-15 offense. They're shooting the ball well, they defend well, and they rebound well. However, they're sending opponents to the free throw line a lot.

Michigan State has a defensive free throw rate of 52.0, ranking 326th in the country. This essentially means that for every two field goals opponents are attempting, they're taking one free throw as well. That may not sound like a lot, but when you add it up, teams are taking 30 free throws per game against the Spartans.

The Spartans have a largely younger front court with players still figuring out how to play defense at this level. 7-foot-2 freshman Ethan Taylor has nine fouls in just 32 minutes of play this season, Jesse McCulloch has six fouls in 34 minutes of play, and Cam Ward has ten fouls in 45 minutes of play.

6. Virginia Cavaliers: Pick-and-roll efficiency

Virginia Cavaliers players | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia has been quite steady to start the season, showcasing both their depth and star power. It's a little surprising to see this, but they haven't been that efficient in pick-and-rolls thus far. On the season, Virginia is averaging 0.817 points per pick-and-roll, ranking 259th in the country, per Synergy.

It hasn't stopped the offense from being effective thus far, especially considering this team isn't overly reliant on them offensively. But as the season progresses, players will become more tired and it'll become more important to be able to effectively create out of these looks.

Chance Mallory is the primary ball handler in these actions, but he's currently shooting just 36 percent out of pick-and-rolls. Sam Lewis is his backcourt counterpart, but Lewis is shooting just 13 percent out of pick-and-rolls. Both are high level players who should see these numbers increase, but it's something to keep an eye on.

7. Texas Longhorns: Youth

Texas Longhorns forward Marcus Spears Jr. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Texas has played three games this season, all against teams ranked 300th or worse in KenPom. As would be expected, they've dominated those games, so it's been difficult to get a fully accurate read on them.

This team has players like Matas Vokietaitis, David Punch, and Elyjah Freeman who have real college basketball experience, but they're still generally one of the younger teams at the top of college basketball. There are expected to be up to four freshman in the rotation, two sophomores, and three juniors.

Texas is plenty talented to be able to compete at the top of the sport, but they may have to take a few growing pains along the way to get there.

8. Houston Cougars: Mid-range reliance

Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Houston is always a team that utilizes the mid-range a lot, so this could be not a big deal in the long run. This team has been incredibly balanced on both sides of the ball to start the season as tehy've dominated three teams ranked worse than 100 in KenPom.

In the modern age of analytical thinking where teams want to prioritize shots from 3 and at the rim, Houston has zagged the other way, ranking in the bottom-15 in the country in 3 and rim rate.

It isn't that taking mid-range shots automatically makes you a bad offense. Purdue last season was the best offense in the country while relying on mid-range shots, and Houston has been very successful with the same formula. There's just more of an inherrent risk since those shots are going to be worth less. Right now, Housting is one of the elite mid-range shooting teams in the country, but if they have an off-night, can they overcome the inefficient shots?

9. UCLA Bruins: Interior size

UCLA Bruins guard Trent Perry | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

UCLA has been one of the best teams in the country to start the season, dominating on both sides of the ball. They've done everything very well so far, and it isn't easy to pick something they're doing wrong.

The lack of interior size is more of a concern for the future, rather than something holding them back currently. Xavier Booker is the starting center for UCLA at 6-foot-11, although he is more of a wiry forward than true center. From there, UCLA has multiple 6-foot-8 or 6-foot-9 players who play minutes at the five.

UCLA has already shown they have potential to overcome the lack of interior size when they beat Arizona on opening night. As the season progresses and they play more teams with double big lineups, UCLA will have to continue being able to fight well down low to keep up with physical play.

10. Louisville Cardinals: 3-point shooting

Louisville Cardinals guard Isaac Ellis | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Louisville has only played two games so far this season, so it's a very small sample size. The Cardinals are shooting just 30.1 percent from 3, ranking 222nd in the country, and opponents are shooting 35.3 percent from 3, ranking 248th defensively for Louisville.

Louisville is a team that is willing to live-and-die by the 3, taking over 50 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. If those shots aren't falling, this offense is going to take a big hit.

A lot of these players have struggled shooting through two games, but they've been quality shooters throughout their career. Jackson Shelstad is just 5-of-20 from 3 this season, but he's a career 35 percent shooter. Karter Knox is just 2-of-7, but he's a career 36 percent shooter. This Louisville team is going to generate quality looks on a consistent basis, they simply have to start getting in rhythm and knocking them down.

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