It didn't take long for some NFL analysts to begin doubting the Chicago Bears after their statement primetime victory over the Seattle Seahawks. On the Friday morning edition of ESPN's "Get Up" show, Mike Greenberg led a discussion on the Bears' upcoming Week 9 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and former NFL safety Donte Johnson picked the Buccaneers to not just win, but to 'humble' the Bears.

"I think this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and [head coach] Todd Bowles will serve Caleb Williams and this Chicago Bears offense a little slice of humble pie," Johnson said to Greenberg. "[Todd Bowles] is one of those coordinators who takes pride in humbling a quarterback that everybody's on board with... I believe it's going to be difficult, so I'm picking Tampa Bay for the upset."

Former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky followed up with a statistic, saying, "Caleb Williams, when he isn't blitzed, completes 82% of his passes. When he is blitzed, he's completing 58% of his passes. That 24-point drop, that's the second largest in the NFL behind Bo Nix."

It's an odd choice to pick the Bears to take an upset loss a week after they dismantled the defending champs in their own house, but Johnson and Orlovsky seem convinced that the Buccaneers are legit and that they'll give Williams fits. Luckily for the Bears, the Buccaneers' impressive numbers are mostly smoke and mirrors.

The Buccaneers are not as good as their numbers say they are

The Buccaneers have allowed the third fewest yards and fifth fewest points per game. But these numbers are heavily skewed by the quality of their opponents and even the weather in recent games. They beat the Atlanta Falcons 16-0 last week in monsoon-like conditions. They held a struggling Carolina Panthers team to 13 points the week before that. They held the Pittsburgh Steelers to 19 points in regulation before an overtime loss, but they're only ranked 18th in both points and yards per game.

These performances have Tampa Bay looking dangerous, but they haven't faced an offense anywhere near as dangerous as Chicago since Week 1. The Cincinnati Bengals put up 33 points in a win that week, with Joe Burrow completing 72% of his passes for 254 yards. Williams put up similar numbers against the Seahawks in their own stadium, a defense that had not given up more than 200 yards to any quarterback this season before Week 8, including MVP candidates like Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.

That's not to say that this will be an easy game. The Buccaneers' defense is good, and Todd Bowles is a crafty play-caller. But I don't understand the timing of Donte Johnson's strong stance. No offense has been hotter than the Bears since Caleb Williams returned in Week 6, and that includes games against two of the best defenses in the league. To suddenly regress against Tampa Bay would be almost beyond explanation.

Caleb Williams is a blitz-killer

The completion percentages that Orlovsky repeated also require an answer. At first glance, Williams' 58% completion rating against the blitz is damning, especially since the Buccaneers are good at sending confusing blitz packages at quarterbacks. It gets even worse when Orlovsky clarifies that this 24-point drop from Williams' completion percentage when not blitzed is the second-largest in the NFL.

Taken together, Orlovsky paints a picture of a panicky quarterback who struggles against pressure. However, those completion numbers are almost certainly heavily skewed by the Bears' Week 2 game against the Minnesota Vikings, a game in which heavy, constant rainfall badly impacted each team's passing offense. If Orlovsky separated out that game, I would imagine the numbers would look much better.

Additionally, we already know that Caleb Williams doesn't crumble under pressure. Even in his chaotic rookie season, Williams was a blitz-killer who tallied 11 big-time throws against the blitz. In Week 7 of this season, Williams faced a heavy blitz rate from the Patriots but completed 12-of-20 passes for 205 yards and a touchdown.

The Bottom Line

I get it. If everyone in the NFL world said the same thing about every game, the discourse would be boring. Sometimes you have to go your own way and state a contrary opinion. It just strikes me as odd to choose to do that with the hottest team in the NFL. As aforementioned, the Bears have been lighting up some of the league's best defenses since Williams returned from injury, and there's no reason to expect that to change on Sunday.